Tuesday, November 2, 2010

2010 NFL Week 8 Super Bowl Chances; New England 28% chance of winning it all

At mid-season it is always fun to take a look at the projected records to determine who would make the playoffs and where they'd be seeded, and then look at the chances of each team to make the Super Bowl and win it all.

Below is the table using the current projected records.

By virtue of being the #1 seeds and thus having home field advantage as well as currently being the highest rated teams in their conferences, New England and Atlanta are projected to meet in the Super Bowl (45% and 41% respectively) with New England being the favorite to win at 28%.  28% is pretty high, but things can change, and there is a 72% chance that someone else wins it.

Atlanta, Green Bay, and Baltimore are grouped close together in the mid-teens and after that it drops off quite a bit.  Will one of these 4 teams win it all or will it be what is an outsider at this point that comes through?

TeamConferenceSuperbowl
New England0.4540.284
Atlanta0.4110.162
Green Bay0.3520.154
Baltimore0.2380.134
NY Giants0.1300.054
Indianapolis0.1240.075
Pittsburgh0.0780.046
NY Jets0.0550.033
St Louis0.0520.015
Kansas City0.0500.026
New Orleans0.0390.012
Tampa Bay0.0170.004