Baltimore and New England would top the AFC at 12-4 with the Patriots having the better shot at 13-3 and clear home field advantage through the playoffs. The Jets and Pittsburgh would have to settle for the wildcards at 11-5 along with Indianapolis and Kansas City winning their divisions with that record. The only team really threatening to break into the mix is Tennessee with Miami a bit far back.
In the NFC only one team is projected to be even 11-5, that being Atlanta, with Green Bay and the Giants winning divisions at 10-6. There is a three way fight for the wildcard spots with New Orleans and Tampa Bay having better chances of 9-7 records, but Philly does have a good shot at 10-6 too which could nail down a wildcard and vie for the division. And right now, there is projected to be an 8-8 division winner in St. Louis but it could come down to tie-breakers with Seattle.
| Team | Record | % chance | % +1 | % -1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Record | % chance | % +1 | % -1 |
| Baltimore | 12-4 | 29.0 | 16.0 | 28.3 |
| New England | 12-4 | 27.8 | 22.1 | 22.0 |
| NY Jets | 11-5 | 29.7 | 22.9 | 22.6 |
| Indianapolis | 11-5 | 29.3 | 21.1 | 24.0 |
| Pittsburgh | 11-5 | 28.6 | 27.5 | 17.8 |
| Atlanta | 11-5 | 28.6 | 23.3 | 21.6 |
| Kansas City | 11-5 | 26.7 | 17.8 | 25.1 |
| Green Bay | 10-6 | 31.3 | 24.6 | 22.0 |
| Tennessee | 10-6 | 28.3 | 19.0 | 25.3 |
| NY Giants | 10-6 | 26.9 | 23.7 | 19.6 |
| New Orleans | 9-7 | 29.0 | 23.5 | 21.5 |
| Miami | 9-7 | 28.4 | 19.9 | 24.5 |
| Tampa Bay | 9-7 | 27.9 | 19.8 | 24.4 |
| Philadelphia | 9-7 | 26.6 | 24.0 | 19.1 |
| Washington | 8-8 | 28.5 | 20.1 | 24.6 |
| San Diego | 8-8 | 28.3 | 18.1 | 26.1 |
| St Louis | 8-8 | 27.7 | 22.2 | 21.9 |
| Houston | 8-8 | 26.7 | 20.3 | 22.8 |
| Oakland | 8-8 | 26.7 | 16.9 | 26.4 |
| Seattle | 8-8 | 26.1 | 24.3 | 18.1 |
| Jacksonville | 7-9 | 27.8 | 26.1 | 17.8 |
| Chicago | 7-9 | 27.6 | 24.8 | 18.8 |
| Minnesota | 7-9 | 27.3 | 17.8 | 25.8 |
| Arizona | 7-9 | 27.2 | 23.0 | 20.5 |
| Detroit | 7-9 | 26.1 | 18.8 | 23.7 |
| Cleveland | 6-10 | 28.0 | 20.0 | 24.4 |
| Cincinnati | 5-11 | 32.6 | 22.6 | 24.5 |
| San Francisco | 5-11 | 29.5 | 24.7 | 20.6 |
| Denver | 5-11 | 28.7 | 21.8 | 23.1 |
| Dallas | 4-12 | 28.5 | 19.1 | 25.9 |
| Carolina | 2-14 | 35.8 | 29.9 | 17.2 |
| Buffalo | 2-14 | 30.1 | 26.0 | 19.3 |
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