Saturday, November 13, 2010

2010 Week 11 College Football Preview; Mississippi State, Kansas State, South Carolina, Auburn

This week has had a lot of off the field drama, but will there be any drama on the field?  There aren't a bevy of what appear to be great games between top-25 teams, but here is a preview of the three there are as well as a few others.

In a matchup between BCS #19 Mississippi State and #12 Alabama, Vegas doesn't think the teams should be ranked that closely apparently having Alabama by 13.5 points.  My computer agrees on that point at least, having Alabama #8 and Mississippi State #30, but doesn't expect quite that large a win rather having it at 9.1 points, so take Mississippi State plus the points.

BCS #24 Kansas State visits #17 Missouri with Vegas similarly thinking the margin will be much higher than you'd expect between teams 7 spots apart, setting the line also at 13.5.  My computer has the teams ranked a bit closer, #16 and #32 but sets a 7.1 point margin so take K State and the points.

BCS #23 South Carolina visits #22 Florida as a 7 point underdog.  My computer thinks the BCS rankings are fair, having South Carolina at #25 and Florida at #27 so would pick South Carolina on a neutral field, but the game is in Gainesville so Florida is the pick by 2.8 so again take the underdog and the points.

The computer doesn't always pick underdogs though.  There are 16 games where the favorite is picked to cover, and yes Georgia at Auburn is one of them.  The line started at 9.5 but has dipped to 6.5 on all the rumors which makes the computers pick strong, but having Auburn by 11.2 it would have picked them at the starting line.  Clearly if Cam Newton doesn't play that changes things, but if he does play this seems a pretty strong pick.

Enjoy the games!