Sunday, November 21, 2010

2010 Week 12 BCS Bowl Game Predictions; Oregon/BSU, Wisconsin/Stanford, Auburn/tOSU, VaTech/TCU, Nebraska/Pitt

Time has passed and it is time to update my prior bowl game predictions.

Using my latest projections, there would be three undefeated teams; Oregon, Boise State, and TCU.  My computer currently projects Alabama to beat Auburn this week although it has Auburn winning the SEC championship game.

While Boise State is currently behind TCU, I expect them to move ahead after they beat Nevada and I don't expect Auburn to get back to #2 after the loss, so Oregon vs Boise State would be the BCS NC game.

The Rose Bowl would have the Big-Televen champ against their pick of teams since they lost Oregon to the NC game.  But since BSU would be the non-AQ conference AQ, they would not be obligated to take TCU.  An 11-1 Stanford would be very attractive to preserve the Big-Televen vs Pac-10 tradition, and my computer says Stanford is the better team so I'd like to think that is the direction they go, but if you believe the talking heads, they are talking about taking TCU to fulfill the non-AQ obligation now when they can get an undefeated TCU.  I doubt it happens though.  And I expect Wisconsin to keep the slim margin over Ohio State, even though the computers could narrow it a bit.

The Sugar would have Auburn as the SEC champ and they pick next.  If TCU is available, they could go that direction, but figure they'll go after the money/attendance and whomever the #2 Big-Televen team would fit that bill.  And should the Rose take TCU, I doubt the Sugar would pick Stanford.

The Orange goes next and should already have Virginia Tech and would likely go with TCU as the opponent.  If TCU does go to the Rose Bowl, they'd likely take Stanford just because any other choice would be a two-loss team as I predict LSU to lose to Arkansas.

That leaves the Fiesta Bowl which would have Nebraska or Oklahoma State (hard to pick between the two right now, I have them virtually tied) against the default of Pitt as the Big-East champ.

  • BCS NCG - Oregon 12-0 vs Boise State 12-0
  • Rose Bowl - Wisconsin 11-1 vs Stanford 11-1 (possibly TCU 12-0)
  • Sugar Bowl - Auburn 12-1 vs Ohio State 11-1
  • Orange Bowl - Virginia Tech 11-2 vs TCU 12-0 (possibly Stanford 11-1)
  • Fiesta Bowl - Nebraska 11-2 (or possibly Oklahoma State) vs Pitt 8-4
Hopefully I'm not biased, as I'm pleased that both TCU and Stanford get into BCS games.  This does depend on LSU losing to Arkansas as if they don't, there is a good chance they go to the Orange Bowl instead of TCU/Stanford.

Thoughts?