Sunday, November 21, 2010

2010 BCS Computer Scenarios; What if Oregon and Auburn don't win out?

Since I have a BCS compliant algorithm that has results similar to many of the BCS computers, I can play around with scenarios to see what might happen.  In light of that and all the discussion about what happens if one of Oregon or Auburn lose, will Boise State pass TCU, and who will win the Big-Televen, here are some scenarios and what my computer says would happen in them.

The games I'll look at are:

Auburn at Alabama
Boise State at Nevada
Arizona at Oregon
LSU vs Arkansas at Little Rock AR
TCU at New Mexico
Michigan at Ohio State
Michigan State at Penn State
Northwestern at Wisconsin
Utah State at Boise State
Oregon at Oregon State
Oklahoma at Oklahoma State
South Carolina vs Auburn
Nebraska vs Oklahoma State

First, let's assume that all the top teams win out (Oregon, Auburn, Boise State, TCU, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan State, LSU, Oklahoma State).  The assumption is this would put Oregon and Auburn in the national championship game, but which of Boise or TCU gets the automatic BCS berth in the Rose Bowl?  And who wins the Big-Televen?  Here would be my BCS algorithm top-20 in that scenario:

1Auburn87.45913-074.283+1, +0.989
2Oregon87.05312-074.955-1, +0.313
3Oklahoma St85.31212-175.441+3, +1.496
4LSU84.96911-174.693+1, +0.922
5Stanford84.86810-176.187-2, -0.051
6Boise St83.98512-072.856+1, +0.526
7TCU83.80312-072.439-3, -0.748
8Missouri83.1919-276.416+0, -0.239
9Wisconsin83.05111-172.251+1, +0.193
10Ohio State82.74911-172.684+4, +0.334
11Michigan St82.67611-172.522+4, +0.361
12Texas A&M82.3618-376.750+0, -0.122
13Oklahoma82.3099-377.255-4, -0.684
14Nebraska82.1949-375.986-3, -0.634
15Arkansas81.6469-375.465-2, -0.811
16Alabama81.3479-375.078+0, -0.513
17Virginia Tech79.8099-272.690+2, +0.039
18Arizona79.7557-476.365+0, -0.281
19Southern Cal79.5567-477.190+1, -0.072
20Nevada79.49410-272.223-3, -0.717

So Auburn would move slightly ahead of Oregon but they'd remain #1 and #2 and face off in the national championship.  Boise State would also slip past TCU, so assuming they stay about even in the polls, they'd likely get the automatic bid and TCU would have to hope for an at-large berth.  And the Big-Televen title would be very close with less than 0.4 points separating the three teams but Wisconsin holding the edge.  Unless they lose favor in the polls, they'd likely hold on to get the Rose Bowl berth.
That scenario played out pretty much as expected, so let's look at a more interesting one.  What if everyone wins out but Oregon loses to Arizona?

1Auburn87.40313-074.241+1, +0.933
2Oklahoma St85.29512-175.422+4, +1.479
3LSU84.91411-174.641+2, +0.867
4Stanford84.60310-176.025-1, -0.316
5Oregon84.53811-174.978-4, -2.202
6Boise St83.97212-072.851+1, +0.513
7TCU83.78012-072.426-3, -0.771
8Missouri83.1879-276.413+0, -0.243
9Wisconsin83.09711-172.270+1, +0.239
10Ohio State82.81211-172.732+4, +0.397
11Michigan St82.73811-172.570+4, +0.423
12Texas A&M82.3468-376.736+0, -0.137
13Oklahoma82.2999-377.245-4, -0.694
14Nebraska82.1769-375.971-3, -0.652
15Arkansas81.5989-375.423-2, -0.859
16Arizona81.3808-376.081+2, +1.344
17Alabama81.2909-375.030-1, -0.570
18Virginia Tech79.7999-272.682+1, +0.029
19Nevada79.46810-272.202-2, -0.743
20Utah79.4379-273.114+1, -0.163

In this case Oregon falls all the way to #5 opening the door for someone else to move into the championship game.  My rankings would move Oklahoma State all the way to #2 but they are likely too far back in the polls  and my algorithm has them a bit higher than the other computers.  Simply because of the polls, it is likely that the highest of Boise/TCU would go and like above, Boise looks be edge TCU out.
Alright, let's get more interesting.  Let's give Oregon their win back, but what if Auburn loses to Alabama (which my computer predicts) but wins the SEC championship game?

1Oregon87.08612-074.984+0, +0.346
2Oklahoma St85.32012-175.451+4, +1.504
3Auburn84.93412-174.325-1, -1.536
4Stanford84.89310-176.208-1, -0.026
5LSU84.83011-174.627+0, +0.783
6Boise St84.00112-072.875+1, +0.542
7TCU83.81912-072.454-3, -0.732
8Missouri83.2059-276.431+0, -0.225
9Alabama83.18410-274.856+7, +1.324
10Wisconsin83.11411-172.302+0, +0.256
11Ohio State82.81611-172.743+3, +0.401
12Michigan St82.75311-172.583+3, +0.438
13Texas A&M82.3568-376.747-1, -0.127
14Oklahoma82.3179-377.263-5, -0.676
15Nebraska82.2059-375.999-4, -0.623
16Arkansas81.5129-375.350-3, -0.945
17Virginia Tech79.8169-272.703+2, +0.046
18Arizona79.7847-476.391+0, -0.252
19Southern Cal79.5817-477.215+1, -0.047
20Nevada79.51010-272.240-3, -0.701

Here, Auburn drops, but only to #3.  It is entirely possible that they do stay fairly high in the computers meaning it depends on what they do in the polls.  Given they'd have the SEC championship game to make a statement and the perception that the SEC is the best conference, there is a good chance they are close enough to Boise and TCU in the polls that the computers keeping them ahead of those teams could make it very close for them to still get to the BCS championship game.  As far as LSU's case to get there, they would be behind Auburn in my computer as above and would have lost head to head so likely wouldn't get enough consideration.

One thing these scenarios have not taken into account is one of Boise's past opponents, Virginia Tech.  Since the computers "should" take past opponents into account (I question whether Billingsley does as a team that doesn't play doesn't change in his ratings) this could affect things.  So what if we add Virginia Tech beating Virginia and Florida State to the first scenario above?

1Auburn87.45113-074.272+1, +0.981
2Oregon87.04812-074.948-1, +0.308
3Oklahoma St85.28812-175.423+3, +1.472
4LSU84.96511-174.689+1, +0.918
5Stanford84.86110-176.178-2, -0.058
6Boise St84.08512-072.910+1, +0.626
7TCU83.78012-072.417-3, -0.771
8Missouri83.1669-276.395+0, -0.264
9Wisconsin83.04811-172.248+1, +0.190
10Ohio State82.74811-172.683+4, +0.333
11Michigan St82.67511-172.520+4, +0.360
12Texas A&M82.3378-376.730+0, -0.146
13Oklahoma82.2309-377.179-4, -0.763
14Nebraska82.1759-375.971-3, -0.653
15Arkansas81.6409-375.460-2, -0.817
16Alabama81.3459-375.076+0, -0.515
17Virginia Tech80.47711-272.603+2, +0.707
18Arizona79.7507-476.360+0, -0.286
19Southern Cal79.5517-477.184+1, -0.077
20Nevada79.49310-272.219-3, -0.718

This bumps Boise State up about 0.1 giving them a slightly larger edge over TCU but not enough to move farther up.  If Virginia Tech were to lose their last two, it would hurt Boise and put them about 0.3 behind TCU.

In the who knows what happens scenario, what if both Oregon and Auburn lose?  That will depend so much on the polls that it is hard to say.  Auburn it appears has the better shot at staying high enough, but at least one of Boise/TCU figure to make it.  But the pollsters could manipulate things which would be unfortunate.