2010 BCS Computer Scenarios; What if Oregon and Auburn don't win out?

Since I have a BCS compliant algorithm that has results similar to many of the BCS computers, I can play around with scenarios to see what might happen.  In light of that and all the discussion about what happens if one of Oregon or Auburn lose, will Boise State pass TCU, and who will win the Big-Televen, here are some scenarios and what my computer says would happen in them.

The games I'll look at are:

Auburn at Alabama
Boise State at Nevada
Arizona at Oregon
LSU vs Arkansas at Little Rock AR
TCU at New Mexico
Michigan at Ohio State
Michigan State at Penn State
Northwestern at Wisconsin
Utah State at Boise State
Oregon at Oregon State
Oklahoma at Oklahoma State
South Carolina vs Auburn
Nebraska vs Oklahoma State

First, let's assume that all the top teams win out (Oregon, Auburn, Boise State, TCU, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan State, LSU, Oklahoma State).  The assumption is this would put Oregon and Auburn in the national championship game, but which of Boise or TCU gets the automatic BCS berth in the Rose Bowl?  And who wins the Big-Televen?  Here would be my BCS algorithm top-20 in that scenario:

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Auburn	87.459	13-0	74.283	+1, +0.989
2	Oregon	87.053	12-0	74.955	-1, +0.313
3	Oklahoma St	85.312	12-1	75.441	+3, +1.496
4	LSU	84.969	11-1	74.693	+1, +0.922
5	Stanford	84.868	10-1	76.187	-2, -0.051
6	Boise St	83.985	12-0	72.856	+1, +0.526
7	TCU	83.803	12-0	72.439	-3, -0.748
8	Missouri	83.191	9-2	76.416	+0, -0.239
9	Wisconsin	83.051	11-1	72.251	+1, +0.193
10	Ohio State	82.749	11-1	72.684	+4, +0.334
11	Michigan St	82.676	11-1	72.522	+4, +0.361
12	Texas A&M	82.361	8-3	76.750	+0, -0.122
13	Oklahoma	82.309	9-3	77.255	-4, -0.684
14	Nebraska	82.194	9-3	75.986	-3, -0.634
15	Arkansas	81.646	9-3	75.465	-2, -0.811
16	Alabama	81.347	9-3	75.078	+0, -0.513
17	Virginia Tech	79.809	9-2	72.690	+2, +0.039
18	Arizona	79.755	7-4	76.365	+0, -0.281
19	Southern Cal	79.556	7-4	77.190	+1, -0.072
20	Nevada	79.494	10-2	72.223	-3, -0.717

So Auburn would move slightly ahead of Oregon but they'd remain #1 and #2 and face off in the national championship.  Boise State would also slip past TCU, so assuming they stay about even in the polls, they'd likely get the automatic bid and TCU would have to hope for an at-large berth.  And the Big-Televen title would be very close with less than 0.4 points separating the three teams but Wisconsin holding the edge.  Unless they lose favor in the polls, they'd likely hold on to get the Rose Bowl berth.
That scenario played out pretty much as expected, so let's look at a more interesting one.  What if everyone wins out but Oregon loses to Arizona?

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Auburn	87.403	13-0	74.241	+1, +0.933
2	Oklahoma St	85.295	12-1	75.422	+4, +1.479
3	LSU	84.914	11-1	74.641	+2, +0.867
4	Stanford	84.603	10-1	76.025	-1, -0.316
5	Oregon	84.538	11-1	74.978	-4, -2.202
6	Boise St	83.972	12-0	72.851	+1, +0.513
7	TCU	83.780	12-0	72.426	-3, -0.771
8	Missouri	83.187	9-2	76.413	+0, -0.243
9	Wisconsin	83.097	11-1	72.270	+1, +0.239
10	Ohio State	82.812	11-1	72.732	+4, +0.397
11	Michigan St	82.738	11-1	72.570	+4, +0.423
12	Texas A&M	82.346	8-3	76.736	+0, -0.137
13	Oklahoma	82.299	9-3	77.245	-4, -0.694
14	Nebraska	82.176	9-3	75.971	-3, -0.652
15	Arkansas	81.598	9-3	75.423	-2, -0.859
16	Arizona	81.380	8-3	76.081	+2, +1.344
17	Alabama	81.290	9-3	75.030	-1, -0.570
18	Virginia Tech	79.799	9-2	72.682	+1, +0.029
19	Nevada	79.468	10-2	72.202	-2, -0.743
20	Utah	79.437	9-2	73.114	+1, -0.163

In this case Oregon falls all the way to #5 opening the door for someone else to move into the championship game.  My rankings would move Oklahoma State all the way to #2 but they are likely too far back in the polls  and my algorithm has them a bit higher than the other computers.  Simply because of the polls, it is likely that the highest of Boise/TCU would go and like above, Boise looks be edge TCU out.
Alright, let's get more interesting.  Let's give Oregon their win back, but what if Auburn loses to Alabama (which my computer predicts) but wins the SEC championship game?

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Oregon	87.086	12-0	74.984	+0, +0.346
2	Oklahoma St	85.320	12-1	75.451	+4, +1.504
3	Auburn	84.934	12-1	74.325	-1, -1.536
4	Stanford	84.893	10-1	76.208	-1, -0.026
5	LSU	84.830	11-1	74.627	+0, +0.783
6	Boise St	84.001	12-0	72.875	+1, +0.542
7	TCU	83.819	12-0	72.454	-3, -0.732
8	Missouri	83.205	9-2	76.431	+0, -0.225
9	Alabama	83.184	10-2	74.856	+7, +1.324
10	Wisconsin	83.114	11-1	72.302	+0, +0.256
11	Ohio State	82.816	11-1	72.743	+3, +0.401
12	Michigan St	82.753	11-1	72.583	+3, +0.438
13	Texas A&M	82.356	8-3	76.747	-1, -0.127
14	Oklahoma	82.317	9-3	77.263	-5, -0.676
15	Nebraska	82.205	9-3	75.999	-4, -0.623
16	Arkansas	81.512	9-3	75.350	-3, -0.945
17	Virginia Tech	79.816	9-2	72.703	+2, +0.046
18	Arizona	79.784	7-4	76.391	+0, -0.252
19	Southern Cal	79.581	7-4	77.215	+1, -0.047
20	Nevada	79.510	10-2	72.240	-3, -0.701

Here, Auburn drops, but only to #3.  It is entirely possible that they do stay fairly high in the computers meaning it depends on what they do in the polls.  Given they'd have the SEC championship game to make a statement and the perception that the SEC is the best conference, there is a good chance they are close enough to Boise and TCU in the polls that the computers keeping them ahead of those teams could make it very close for them to still get to the BCS championship game.  As far as LSU's case to get there, they would be behind Auburn in my computer as above and would have lost head to head so likely wouldn't get enough consideration.

One thing these scenarios have not taken into account is one of Boise's past opponents, Virginia Tech.  Since the computers "should" take past opponents into account (I question whether Billingsley does as a team that doesn't play doesn't change in his ratings) this could affect things.  So what if we add Virginia Tech beating Virginia and Florida State to the first scenario above?

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Auburn	87.451	13-0	74.272	+1, +0.981
2	Oregon	87.048	12-0	74.948	-1, +0.308
3	Oklahoma St	85.288	12-1	75.423	+3, +1.472
4	LSU	84.965	11-1	74.689	+1, +0.918
5	Stanford	84.861	10-1	76.178	-2, -0.058
6	Boise St	84.085	12-0	72.910	+1, +0.626
7	TCU	83.780	12-0	72.417	-3, -0.771
8	Missouri	83.166	9-2	76.395	+0, -0.264
9	Wisconsin	83.048	11-1	72.248	+1, +0.190
10	Ohio State	82.748	11-1	72.683	+4, +0.333
11	Michigan St	82.675	11-1	72.520	+4, +0.360
12	Texas A&M	82.337	8-3	76.730	+0, -0.146
13	Oklahoma	82.230	9-3	77.179	-4, -0.763
14	Nebraska	82.175	9-3	75.971	-3, -0.653
15	Arkansas	81.640	9-3	75.460	-2, -0.817
16	Alabama	81.345	9-3	75.076	+0, -0.515
17	Virginia Tech	80.477	11-2	72.603	+2, +0.707
18	Arizona	79.750	7-4	76.360	+0, -0.286
19	Southern Cal	79.551	7-4	77.184	+1, -0.077
20	Nevada	79.493	10-2	72.219	-3, -0.718

This bumps Boise State up about 0.1 giving them a slightly larger edge over TCU but not enough to move farther up.  If Virginia Tech were to lose their last two, it would hurt Boise and put them about 0.3 behind TCU.

In the who knows what happens scenario, what if both Oregon and Auburn lose?  That will depend so much on the polls that it is hard to say.  Auburn it appears has the better shot at staying high enough, but at least one of Boise/TCU figure to make it.  But the pollsters could manipulate things which would be unfortunate.

Thoughts?