Monday, November 8, 2010

2010 Week 10 BCS Bowl Game Predictions

We are now close enough to the end of the regular season that we can start to look at who is going to be in conference championship games and who will win each conference.

Using my most recent projected records, the conference champions would be:
  • ACC - Virginia Tech 10-3 (beating FSU in championship game)
  • Big-12 - Nebraska 12-1 (Oklahoma State)
  • Big-East - Pitt 8-4
  • Big-Televen - Michgan State 11-1 (beating out Wisconsin at 11-1 due to head to head)
  • Pac-10 - Oregon 12-0
  • SEC - Auburn 12-1 (Florida)
TCU will likely hold on to their lead over Boise State in the BCS and thus get the non-AQ conference automatic bid.  That makes 7 teams for the 10 games leaving 3 at-large berths.  Other eligible teams for those would likely be:
  • Boise State 12-0
  • Stanford 11-1
  • Wisconsin 11-1
  • Utah 11-1
  • Oklahoma State 11-2
  • Iowa 10-2
  • Ohio State 10-2
  • LSU 10-2
  • Alabama 10-2
Since my computer projects Auburn to have 1-loss, they wouldn't be in the BCS championship game, instead TCU would move up.  So with tie-ins and the BCS top-2, we have:
  • BCS NCG - Oregon 12-0 vs TCU 12-0
  • Rose Bowl - Michigan State 11-1 vs ?
  • Sugar Bowl - Auburn 12-1 vs ?
  • Orange Bowl - Virginia Tech 10-3 vs ?
  • Fiesta Bowl - Nebraska 12-1 vs ?
Since the Rose Bowl lost a tie-in to the NCG, they get first pick, and while my read of the rules is that they would not be obligated to take Boise State since they wouldn't be the non-AQ automatic qualifier, my guess is they would anyway.  Their alternative though would be to keep the Big-Televen vs Pac-10 and take an 11-1 Stanford making it an attractive game.  The games are now:
  • BCS NCG - Oregon 12-0 vs TCU 12-0
  • Rose Bowl - Michigan State 11-1 vs Boise State (possibly Stanford)
  • Sugar Bowl - Auburn 12-1 vs ?
  • Orange Bowl - Virginia Tech 10-3 vs ?
  • Fiesta Bowl - Nebraska 12-1 vs ?
The Sugar Bowl gets the next pick and is going to be interested in a team that will travel well.  My guess is they try to draw from the Big-Televen and take Wisconsin.  They could possibly take whichever of Boise State or Stanford the Rose doesn't, but I really doubt they'd take Boise State because of fewer fans/dollars they'd bring to New Orleans as well as it would be a no-win situation for the SEC as they've been saying Boise isn't worthy of a BCS bowl so why give them a chance to knock off Auburn and embarrass them?  If they do take someone else it would more likely be Stanford, but they are farther away and wouldn't bring as many fans.  The bowls are now:
  • BCS NCG - Oregon 12-0 vs TCU 12-0
  • Rose Bowl - Wisconsin 11-1 vs Boise State (possibly Stanford)
  • Sugar Bowl - Auburn 12-1 vs Michigan State 11-1
  • Orange Bowl - Virginia Tech 10-3 vs ?
  • Fiesta Bowl - Nebraska 12-1 vs ?
The Orange Bowl gets the next pick and would also like to pick a team that travels well, but can't take a Big-Televen team (they already have 2 in the BCS) and my computer projects the rest of the SEC teams will all have 2 losses, so it would be hard to pass up a 1 loss Stanford over a 4 loss Pitt.  If the Rose opts to take Stanford then the Orange doesn't want a rematch and wouldn't take Boise so it would be Pitt or likely an LSU and I'd think they'd prefer LSU.  That would give us:
  • BCS NCG - Oregon 12-0 vs TCU 12-0
  • Rose Bowl - Michigan State 11-1 vs Boise State 12-0 (possibly Stanford 11-1)
  • Sugar Bowl - Auburn 12-1 vs Wisconsin 11-1
  • Orange Bowl - Virginia Tech 10-3 vs Stanford 11-1 (possibly LSU 10-2)
  • Fiesta Bowl - Nebraska 12-1 vs ?
The Fiesta Bowl would be forced to take Pitt as the last AQ giving us:
  • BCS NCG - Oregon 12-0 vs TCU 12-0
  • Rose Bowl - Michigan State 11-1 vs Boise State 12-0 (possibly Stanford 11-1)
  • Sugar Bowl - Auburn 12-1 vs Wisconsin 11-1
  • Orange Bowl - Virginia Tech 10-3 vs Stanford 11-1 (possibly LSU 10-2)
  • Fiesta Bowl - Nebraska 12-1 vs Pitt 8-4
Note that in scenario 2 (Rose Bowl taking Stanford), Boise State gets left out of the BCS bowls unless the Sugar Bowl bails them out and takes them or the Orange Bowl takes Pitt leaving the Fiesta to take Boise State who you know they'd love to.  It also stinks for Nebraska who gets stuck playing an 8-4 Pitt team.

So, there you have it, the BCS bowl games my computer (and my bowl game selection logic) predicts will take place.  What do you think?

Updated 11/9 to correct incorrect Big-Televen tie-breaker being used, swaps Michigan State and Wisconsin