Sunday, November 21, 2010

2010 Week 12 College Football Ratings and Rankings; Oregon #1, Stanford #2, Boise St #3, TCU #4, Auburn #5

With the top-3 teams in the BCS not playing this week, it was all about jockeying for position behind them.  Most teams held serve, but there are a few changes in the ratings and rankings.

The top-6 teams stay the same in the rankings, but Boise State draws closer to Stanford for #2 and they both extend their margin over TCU.  Auburn and Alabama remain in a virtual tie, the winner next week having a chance to move up, but there is a pretty big margin to get to #2.

The changes begin at #7 with Ohio State moving up a spot swapping places with Arkansas.  And strangely (but see below), Nebraska moves up a spot despite their win dropping Oklahoma State to #10.  Wisconsin and Oklahoma are making late season bids for respect, although my computer says Ohio State is better than Wisconsin, and OU/OSU this week should be a very good game.

How, you ask did Nebraska move up even with the loss?  There are two factors.  First, my computer predicted them to lose, picking Texas A&M by 1 since the game was at College Station.  They lost by 3, pretty darn close to the prediction, so they are not penalized for having a result very close to what was supposed to happen.  But more importantly, a bunch of prior opponents had good weeks.  Washington had a big win and moved up, Missouri won by more than expected, Oklahoma State won big, Texas won big, and Idaho won big as well.  The combination of playing pretty much as expected and prior opponents improving results in a slightly improved rating and moving up a spot.  Weird, but that is the way an unbiased system works.

Despite picking the Texas A&M upset, the computer had a poor week going 23-27-1.  But after 5 consecutive winning weeks, it was bound to happen.  See the prediction performance for more details.

Here is the top-30.  See the web-site for the full list.

1Oregon91.22410-068.559+0, +0.596
2Stanford86.20910-172.371+0, +2.086
3Boise St85.90910-064.274+0, +2.347
4TCU84.68111-063.878+0, +1.157
5Auburn82.81111-067.609+0, +0.618
6Alabama82.6189-267.356+0, +0.700
7Ohio State81.82010-165.429+1, +1.741
8Arkansas81.3969-268.542-1, +1.279
9Nebraska80.5999-267.920+1, +1.070
10Oklahoma St80.57810-166.612-1, +0.909
11Wisconsin79.86310-164.180+3, +2.152
12Oklahoma79.7099-269.554+7, +2.804
13Missouri79.5439-269.526+2, +1.988
14South Carolina79.4728-369.324-2, +0.942
15Texas A&M79.1328-370.226+1, +1.593
16Virginia Tech79.0309-265.925+2, +1.974
17LSU77.81010-167.511-4, -0.383
18Arizona77.5087-369.787+2, +0.880
19Iowa77.4977-466.779-2, +0.413
20Southern Cal76.8787-474.184-9, -1.689
21Nevada76.69610-160.738+0, +0.310
22Arizona St76.5874-672.864+1, +1.050
23Michigan St75.80310-164.452-1, +0.045
24Oregon St75.7885-574.465+7, +3.165
25Florida St75.4748-366.747+1, +1.553
26California75.1185-673.992-1, -0.086
27Florida74.9417-468.920+0, +1.110
28Miami FL74.1817-468.508-4, -1.054
29North Carolina St74.1748-365.537-1, +0.826
30Georgia73.8665-667.992+0, +0.939