Tuesday, March 9, 2010

Who the computer says should make the NCAA tournament

Using my computer's rankings as I write this with 5 games still to be finished this evening, here is who should make the 65 team tournament.  The list below is arrived at by taking the automatic bids determined thus far, the highest rated team from each conference yet to determine and auto-bid, and then the next 34 highest rated teams to fill out the bracket.  Those teams with an asterisk are the auto-bid or highest rated from their conference and thus the projected automatic bid.

With Saint Mary's beating Gonzaga last night, some might say an at-large bid was lost, but the computer actually had them comfortably in as an at-large through Sunday at #37 and is actually ranked ahead of Gonzaga now at #27 compared to Gonzaga at #37.

The last team in according to my rankings is Ole Miss at #48.  This means UConn and Seton Hall (both tied at #49), Florida, and Memphis are the last 4 left out.

Living in the Pac-10 country, there has been much debate if they will get 2 teams in.  The computer says they should get 3 with both Washington (#36) and ASU (#47) getting in.  The Pac-10 tourney could affect both and result in only 1 getting in.

ESPN's Bubble Watch has 6 bids for 17 teams, those being:

  • ACC - They list Georgia Tech as having work to do, but the computer has them in at #43 but that is close enough they better win one game in the tournament.  ESPN lists Wake as a lock though and the computer disagrees having them at #54 so having work to do.
  • Big East - ESPN lists Notre Dame as should be in and the computer agrees having them at #29, actually ahead of #33 Louisville who they have as a lock.  Seton Hall, as mentioned above is right there so another win may get them in, and ESPN lists South Florida which shouldn't really have a shot as they are #64.
  • Big Televen - ESPN has Illinois and Minnesota needing to do some work and presently the computer has Minnesota in at #46 and Illinois out at #58.
  • Big-12 - ESPN agrees with the computer that there are 7 in and not much after that.
  • Pac-10 - As noted above, should get 2 with ASU or UW being the second.
  • SEC - ESPN lists Florida, Ole Miss, and Mississippi State as bubble teams and the computer agrees with those being #51, #48, and #56 respectively.
  • Mountain West - ESPN asks if 4 should make it and the computer, for now at least, says yes with UNLV at #40 and San Diego State at #44 making it.
  • Atlantic 10 - ESPN has 3 on the bubble in Dayton, Rhode Island, and St. Louis, and only Dayton should get in at #39 which is ironically ahead of Richmond at #42 who ESPN says is a lock.
  • Others - Utah State, UAB, and Memphis are listed and at #26 Utah State should be a lock but at #61 and #52 respectively, UAB and Memphis shouldn't be close at this point.

Note that all of this is not a prediction of what will happen, rather what the computer says should happen.

1Kansas*96.25429-281.308+0, -0.035
2Duke*94.61426-582.001+0, -0.094
3Syracuse*93.62228-380.940+0, +0.012
4West Virginia91.77824-683.505+0, -0.030
5Kentucky*91.34629-279.786+0, -0.060
6Kansas St91.25123-682.448+0, -0.036
7Baylor91.22623-680.972+0, -0.034
8Ohio State*90.90024-780.021+0, -0.060
9Purdue90.79926-480.913+0, -0.061
10Brigham Young*90.77527-477.994+0, -0.015
11Villanova90.58624-682.428+0, -0.020
12Wisconsin90.47523-781.439+0, -0.084
13Maryland90.19422-781.001+0, -0.058
14Texas A&M89.57621-882.081+0, -0.037
15Missouri89.41322-980.121+0, -0.044
16Georgetown DC89.35020-983.167+0, -0.023
17Marquette89.03520-1080.641+0, -0.016
18California*88.96521-981.668+1, -0.013
19Texas88.92323-881.246-1, -0.087
20Xavier OH*88.77223-780.476+0, -0.028
21Pittsburgh88.59024-781.593+0, +0.025
22Michigan St88.36124-780.942+0, -0.062
23Temple88.32526-580.388+0, +0.020
24Clemson88.19921-981.205+0, -0.053
25Butler*87.80427-479.016+1, -0.019
26Utah St*87.75624-677.429+1, +0.028
27St Mary's CA*87.72825-577.626+10, +0.880
28New Mexico87.59728-378.820+1, -0.017
29Notre Dame87.56621-1079.867-1, -0.062
30Vanderbilt87.48022-781.344+0, -0.028
31Northern Iowa*87.41128-478.447+0, -0.032
32Tennessee87.36023-780.768+0, -0.048
33Louisville87.29020-1182.036+0, -0.051
34Oklahoma St87.16521-980.453+0, -0.027
35Florida St87.04722-880.853+0, -0.047
36Washington86.87921-980.072+0, -0.009
37Gonzaga86.86925-678.485-12, -0.955
38UTEP*86.79524-576.695+0, -0.026
39Dayton86.72120-1179.837+0, +0.072
40UNLV86.37122-778.845+1, -0.018
41Virginia Tech86.28423-779.160+1, -0.046
42Richmond86.26324-779.171+1, -0.050
43Georgia Tech86.16618-1181.300+1, -0.061
44San Diego St85.99320-879.570+1, +0.011
45Old Dominion*85.88526-878.347+1, +0.001
46Minnesota85.79818-1280.302+1, -0.061
47Arizona St85.69222-979.515+2, -0.015
48Mississippi85.68421-979.506+0, -0.035
53Siena*85.37327-676.836+1, +0.112
57Murray St*84.76228-473.008+0, -0.046
63Cornell NY*84.09825-475.376-1, +0.031
68Kent St*83.28822-878.069+0, -0.011
73Wofford*82.90025-875.898+3, +0.209
93Montana*81.24719-975.181+3, +0.151
95Sam Houston St*81.10618-774.833+0, -0.028
96IUPUI*80.98122-975.423+3, +0.032
109Pacific CA*80.24120-1076.037+2, +0.012
146Vermont*78.05724-972.775+0, -0.029
151East Tennessee St*77.86219-1475.917+0, -0.042
160Morgan St*77.18524-973.057+0, -0.037
163North Texas*77.01421-873.595+9, +0.447
184Quinnipiac*75.93623-869.034-1, -0.006
186Lehigh*75.90421-1070.886-1, -0.023
202Winthrop*74.68817-1373.500+0, -0.071
254Arkansas-Pine Bluff*71.25614-1573.325+0, -0.028