Sunday, March 14, 2010

What the computer thinks of the NCAA tournament committee's selections

With the last 4 games played and the tournament selections made, we can now get down to business about looking at the 65 teams, but before we do that, let's use the computer to critique the selection committee's choices.  The latest rankings by the computer are here.

The list of teams the computer says should have been in the tournament are listed below, but the only change from yesterday is that Mississippi State's close loss to Kentucky did indeed move them ahead of Virginia Tech.  But that doesn't really matter now as the picks have been made so lets list them by seeds:

Note: Updated 3/15 AM to include all, not just Division I-A games in the source data.  Only minor changes
  • #1's

    • Kansas - The computer agrees they are a 1 and that they are the top seed overall.
    • Kentucky - Only to the second team and the computer disagrees having UK #5 and thus should have been a 2.
    • Duke - Yep, a 1 with the computer having them #2 overall.
    • Syracuse - Yep, a 1 as well and #3 overall.


  • #2's

    • Ohio State - A 2 is appropriate (#8 overall)
    • West Virginia - A 2 is right (#7)
    • Kansas State - The computer liked them (barely) as the other 1 seed (#4)
    • Villanova - The computer had them a 3 (#11)


  • #3's

    • Georgetown - A 3 is right (#9)
    • New Mexico - First big stretch as the computer as the computer has them #31!
    • Pitt - Also a stretch the computer having them #23
    • Baylor - Could have been a 2 (#6)


  • #4's

    • Maryland - A 4 is right (#13)
    • Wisconsin - Could have been a 3 (#12)
    • Vanderbilt - Another stretch (#32)
    • Purdue - A 4 is right (#14)


  • #5's

    • Michigan State - A little high here, should be a 7 (#25)
    • Temple - A 5 is right (#17)
    • Butler - A 5 is right (#20)
    • Texas A&M - Could have been a 4 (#15)


  • #6's

    • Tennessee - A bit high, should be a 9 (#33)
    • Marquette - Could have been a 5 (#18)
    • Xavier - Could have been a 5 (#19)
    • Notre Dame - A 6 is right (#21)


  • #7's

    • Oklahoma St - A bit high, should be a 9 (#36)
    • Clemson - A 7 is right (#28)
    • BYU - Much too low, should be a 3 (#10)
    • Richmond - Too high, should be an 11 (#43)


  • #8's

    • UNLV - Shouldn't have made it, first out (#46)
    • Texas - A bit low, should be a 6 (#22)
    • Gonzaga - A bit high, should be a 10 (#38)
    • California - A bit low, should be a 4 (#16)


  • #9's

    • Northern Iowa - Close, should be an 8 (#30)
    • Wake Forest - Second that should not have made the tourney (#59)
    • Florida State - Close, should be an 11 (#41)
    • Louisville - Close, should be a 10 (#37)


  • #10's

    • Georgia Tech - A 10 is right (#40)
    • Missouri - Too low, should be a 6 (#24)
    • Florida - Third that shouldn't have made it (#49)
    • St. Mary's - Too low, should be a 7 (#27)


  • #11's

    • San Diego State - Close, should be a 10 (#39)
    • Washington - Too low, should be an 8 (#29)
    • Minnesota - Too low, should be a 9 (#34)
    • Old Dominion - Close, should be a 12 (#47)


  • #12's

    • New Mexico State - A bit high, should be a 14 (#97)
    • Cornell - Close, should be a 13 (#63)
    • UTEP - Too low, should be a 9 (#35)
    • Utah State - Way too low, should be a 7! (#26)


  • #13's

    • Houston - A 13 is right (#87)
    • Wofford - A 13 is right (#75)
    • Murray State - Close, should be a 12 (#57)
    • Siena - Close, should be a 12 (#50)


  • #14's

    • Ohio U - Close, should be a 13 (#86)
    • Montana - A 14 is right (#95)
    • Oakland - A 14 is right (#118)
    • Sam Houston State - A 14 is right (#96)


  • #15's

    • UC Santa Barbara - A 15 is right (#137)
    • Morgan State - A 15 is right (#156)
    • North Texas - Close, should be a 16 (#168)
    • Robert Morris - Close, should be a 16 (#185)


  • #16's

    • Lehigh - A 16 is right (#179)
    • East Tennessee State - Close, should be a 15 (#151)
    • Vermont - Close, should be a 15 (#140)
    • Arkansas Pine Bluff - A 16 is right (#248)
    • Winthrop - A 16 is right (#202)
So, a few seeds way off (Utah State, Richmond, BYU, Missouri) , and three that the computer says shouldn't have made it (UNLV, Wake Forest, and Florida).  Who should have made it instead of those 2? Virginia Tech should have been the last team in (#45), Mississippi State right behind them (#44), and Dayton should also have made it (#42).

Here is the list of who should have made it.  Those with an asterisk got the auto-bids for their conferences.

RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
1Kansas*96.69532-281.936+0, +0.406
2Duke*94.05229-582.194+0, -0.656
3Syracuse93.08528-481.279+0, -0.525
4Kansas St91.97525-783.212+2, +0.688
5Kentucky*91.74332-280.255+0, +0.337
6Baylor91.50624-781.465+1, +0.246
7West Virginia*91.48127-683.783-3, -0.327
8Ohio State*91.36027-780.386+0, +0.400
9Georgetown DC91.02623-1083.837+7, +1.653
10Brigham Young90.32228-578.355+0, -0.468
11Villanova90.24224-782.614+0, -0.364
12Wisconsin89.88323-881.520+0, -0.676
13Maryland89.63022-881.139+0, -0.622
14Purdue89.46827-581.085-5, -1.392
15Texas A&M89.17022-982.486-1, -0.443
16California89.10723-1081.780+3, +0.129
17Temple*89.06929-580.618+6, +0.764
18Marquette88.53122-1181.482-1, -0.520
19Xavier OH88.44024-880.791+1, -0.360
20Butler*88.39528-479.054+6, +0.572
21Notre Dame88.35623-1180.569+7, +0.728
22Texas88.28724-981.613-4, -0.723
23Pittsburgh88.23624-881.738-2, -0.329
24Missouri88.20422-1080.271-9, -1.253
25Michigan St87.94424-881.096-3, -0.479
26Utah St87.91126-777.637+1, +0.183
27St Mary's CA*87.77325-577.674+10, +0.925
28Clemson87.74321-1081.259-4, -0.509
29Washington*87.59724-980.411+7, +0.709
30Northern Iowa*87.37828-478.375+1, -0.065
31New Mexico87.13129-479.036-2, -0.483
32Vanderbilt87.11223-881.499-2, -0.396
33Tennessee87.04925-881.012-1, -0.359
34Minnesota87.04021-1381.111+13, +1.181
35UTEP86.99726-677.238+3, +0.176
36Oklahoma St86.94122-1080.788-2, -0.251
37Louisville86.92020-1282.059-4, -0.421
38Gonzaga86.80225-678.407-13, -1.022
39San Diego St*86.72623-880.095+6, +0.744
40Georgia Tech86.68121-1281.943+4, +0.454
41Florida St86.53422-980.958-6, -0.560
42Dayton86.32820-1279.963-3, -0.321
43Richmond86.26426-879.580+0, -0.049
44Mississippi St86.03023-1179.664+12, +1.182
45Virginia Tech85.95023-879.377-3, -0.380
47Old Dominion*85.86826-878.328-1, -0.016
50Siena*85.24827-676.776+4, -0.013
57Murray St*84.76328-473.003+0, -0.045
63Cornell NY*84.06625-475.351-1, -0.001
75Wofford*82.71925-875.831+1, +0.028
86Ohio U.*82.08720-1477.052+15, +1.336
87Houston*82.06918-1578.773+19, +1.479
95Montana*81.49520-975.497+1, +0.399
96Sam Houston St*81.25021-774.723-1, +0.116
97New Mexico St*81.20821-1178.728+24, +1.663
118Oakland*79.84824-876.224+15, +0.960
137UC-Santa Barbara*78.61919-976.404+13, +0.706
140Vermont*78.38225-972.732+6, +0.296
151East Tennessee St*77.82419-1475.863+0, -0.080
156Morgan St*77.68127-972.829+4, +0.459
168North Texas*76.83722-873.422+4, +0.270
179Lehigh*76.11422-1070.718+6, +0.187
185Robert Morris PA*75.86823-1172.187+7, +0.261
202Winthrop*74.67717-1373.493+0, -0.082
248Arkansas-Pine Bluff*71.67017-1572.800+6, +0.386