Saturday, March 13, 2010

Updated: Who the computer says should make the NCAA tournament

With just 4 games remaining tomorrow, who the computer says should make the 65 team tournament is getting clearer.  And with a few upsets getting auto-bids for a few teams that wouldn't have gotten them otherwise, the number of at-large spots for teams on the bubble has shrunk making things more interesting.

The last at-large spot now goes to #45 Virginia Tech after it had been in the high 40's previously.  This thanks to New Mexico State and Houston at #100 and #87 getting in.  The other 3 making up the last 4 in are Richmond, UNLV, and Dayton.  The first 4 out are Mississippi State, UConn, Florida, and Ole Miss.  It is interesting that the SEC has 3 of those 4 on the outside looking in.

But, the 4 games tomorrow could change things!  Mississippi State could play their way in ahead of VT even with a close loss.  Anything better than a 3 point loss to Kentucky would move them fractionally ahead of VT.

Georgia Tech is pretty secure, anything better than a 20 point loss should keep them from dropping out of the teams that should be in.  Minnesota too should be safe.

The Richmond situation is more interesting.  They are in at #44 now but a 12 point loss to Temple could drop them behind both VT and Miss St.

According to ESPN's latest bracketology, VT, Minnesota, and Miss St are the last 3 in.  I have Minnesota in comfortably and they seem to have Miss St in instead of Dayton.  They don't even have Dayton in the list of the first 4 out.  Just for fun, lets take a look at the performance charts for both teams to compare.

Both teams played better earlier in the year, Miss St had two bad losses late, Dayton one, but Dayton lost in their semis while Miss St has made the final.  If you want to give more weight to the very recent, you can make an argument that Dayton should be out and Miss St in but the computer does look at the whole year while giving the most recent some additional weight.

Anyway, it will be interesting to see what happens.

1Kansas*96.60032-281.833+0, +0.177
2Duke*94.12628-581.962+0, -0.344
3Syracuse92.99628-481.180+0, -0.025
4Kentucky*91.91431-279.980+3, +0.716
5Kansas St91.89525-783.119-1, -0.216
6Baylor91.40724-781.357-1, -0.045
7West Virginia*91.36527-683.659-1, +0.032
8Georgetown DC90.92323-1083.732+0, -0.091
9Ohio State*90.50726-780.116+1, +0.052
10Villanova90.13724-782.506+1, -0.001
11Brigham Young90.01128-578.165+1, -0.091
12Wisconsin89.75323-881.383+1, -0.033
13Maryland89.53022-881.031+1, -0.024
14Purdue89.39627-580.984-5, -1.181
15Texas A&M89.08522-982.385+1, +0.022
16California88.96923-1081.635-1, -0.258
17Temple*88.95728-580.378+2, +0.443
18Xavier OH88.37724-880.708-1, -0.396
19Butler*88.28228-478.941+3, +0.032
20Marquette88.26122-1181.269+0, -0.022
21Notre Dame88.25723-1180.467+0, -0.011
22Texas88.18424-981.496+1, -0.020
23Pittsburgh88.14424-881.637+1, -0.000
24Missouri88.10222-1080.153+1, -0.022
25Michigan St87.87824-881.018+1, +0.014
26Utah St87.78926-777.523-8, -0.773
27Clemson87.64321-1081.154+1, -0.022
28St Mary's CA*87.63725-577.532+3, +0.014
29Minnesota87.55621-1280.653+10, +0.993
30Washington*87.47124-980.278+3, +0.291
31Northern Iowa*87.28128-478.259+1, -0.012
32Vanderbilt87.02123-881.403-5, -0.658
33New Mexico87.00229-478.907+1, +0.039
34Tennessee86.98825-880.938-5, -0.676
35UTEP86.87626-677.112-5, -0.780
36Louisville86.85120-1281.995+1, -0.009
37Oklahoma St86.84222-1080.684-1, -0.037
38Gonzaga86.68325-678.289+0, +0.005
39Georgia Tech86.44621-1181.482+1, -0.022
40San Diego St*86.42023-879.872+4, +0.570
41Florida St86.40722-980.821+1, +0.015
42Dayton86.38920-1279.970-1, -0.060
43UNLV86.33124-879.348-8, -0.572
44Richmond86.24126-779.192-1, +0.377
45Virginia Tech85.85023-879.278+0, +0.039
46Old Dominion*85.77526-878.229+0, +0.018
49Siena*85.33327-676.784-1, +0.023
57Murray St*84.65828-472.890+1, -0.003
63Cornell NY*83.96925-475.251-1, +0.020
73Wofford*82.72025-875.720+0, -0.004
86Ohio U.*81.97920-1476.940+2, +0.212
87Houston*81.96118-1578.664+7, +0.648
95Montana*81.16320-975.227+0, +0.000
96Sam Houston St*81.13521-774.613+8, +0.640
100New Mexico St*80.90721-1178.498+8, +0.625
118Oakland*79.72924-876.105+0, +0.010
137UC-Santa Barbara*78.50819-976.289+2, +0.257
138Vermont*78.48525-972.717+8, +0.579
150East Tennessee St*77.72219-1475.759+1, -0.025
155Morgan St*77.57927-972.734+1, +0.021
166North Texas*76.87221-873.416-1, +0.009
177Lehigh*76.19622-1070.726+0, +0.002
191Robert Morris PA*75.55323-1171.958+0, +0.012
202Winthrop*74.59017-1373.403+0, -0.007
248Arkansas-Pine Bluff*71.55717-1572.683+9, +0.554