Updated: Who the computer says should make the NCAA tournament

With just 4 games remaining tomorrow, who the computer says should make the 65 team tournament is getting clearer.  And with a few upsets getting auto-bids for a few teams that wouldn't have gotten them otherwise, the number of at-large spots for teams on the bubble has shrunk making things more interesting.

The last at-large spot now goes to #45 Virginia Tech after it had been in the high 40's previously.  This thanks to New Mexico State and Houston at #100 and #87 getting in.  The other 3 making up the last 4 in are Richmond, UNLV, and Dayton.  The first 4 out are Mississippi State, UConn, Florida, and Ole Miss.  It is interesting that the SEC has 3 of those 4 on the outside looking in.

But, the 4 games tomorrow could change things!  Mississippi State could play their way in ahead of VT even with a close loss.  Anything better than a 3 point loss to Kentucky would move them fractionally ahead of VT.

Georgia Tech is pretty secure, anything better than a 20 point loss should keep them from dropping out of the teams that should be in.  Minnesota too should be safe.

The Richmond situation is more interesting.  They are in at #44 now but a 12 point loss to Temple could drop them behind both VT and Miss St.

According to ESPN's latest bracketology, VT, Minnesota, and Miss St are the last 3 in.  I have Minnesota in comfortably and they seem to have Miss St in instead of Dayton.  They don't even have Dayton in the list of the first 4 out.  Just for fun, lets take a look at the performance charts for both teams to compare.

Both teams played better earlier in the year, Miss St had two bad losses late, Dayton one, but Dayton lost in their semis while Miss St has made the final.  If you want to give more weight to the very recent, you can make an argument that Dayton should be out and Miss St in but the computer does look at the whole year while giving the most recent some additional weight.

Anyway, it will be interesting to see what happens.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Kansas*	96.600	32-2	81.833	+0, +0.177
2	Duke*	94.126	28-5	81.962	+0, -0.344
3	Syracuse	92.996	28-4	81.180	+0, -0.025
4	Kentucky*	91.914	31-2	79.980	+3, +0.716
5	Kansas St	91.895	25-7	83.119	-1, -0.216
6	Baylor	91.407	24-7	81.357	-1, -0.045
7	West Virginia*	91.365	27-6	83.659	-1, +0.032
8	Georgetown DC	90.923	23-10	83.732	+0, -0.091
9	Ohio State*	90.507	26-7	80.116	+1, +0.052
10	Villanova	90.137	24-7	82.506	+1, -0.001
11	Brigham Young	90.011	28-5	78.165	+1, -0.091
12	Wisconsin	89.753	23-8	81.383	+1, -0.033
13	Maryland	89.530	22-8	81.031	+1, -0.024
14	Purdue	89.396	27-5	80.984	-5, -1.181
15	Texas A&M	89.085	22-9	82.385	+1, +0.022
16	California	88.969	23-10	81.635	-1, -0.258
17	Temple*	88.957	28-5	80.378	+2, +0.443
18	Xavier OH	88.377	24-8	80.708	-1, -0.396
19	Butler*	88.282	28-4	78.941	+3, +0.032
20	Marquette	88.261	22-11	81.269	+0, -0.022
21	Notre Dame	88.257	23-11	80.467	+0, -0.011
22	Texas	88.184	24-9	81.496	+1, -0.020
23	Pittsburgh	88.144	24-8	81.637	+1, -0.000
24	Missouri	88.102	22-10	80.153	+1, -0.022
25	Michigan St	87.878	24-8	81.018	+1, +0.014
26	Utah St	87.789	26-7	77.523	-8, -0.773
27	Clemson	87.643	21-10	81.154	+1, -0.022
28	St Mary's CA*	87.637	25-5	77.532	+3, +0.014
29	Minnesota	87.556	21-12	80.653	+10, +0.993
30	Washington*	87.471	24-9	80.278	+3, +0.291
31	Northern Iowa*	87.281	28-4	78.259	+1, -0.012
32	Vanderbilt	87.021	23-8	81.403	-5, -0.658
33	New Mexico	87.002	29-4	78.907	+1, +0.039
34	Tennessee	86.988	25-8	80.938	-5, -0.676
35	UTEP	86.876	26-6	77.112	-5, -0.780
36	Louisville	86.851	20-12	81.995	+1, -0.009
37	Oklahoma St	86.842	22-10	80.684	-1, -0.037
38	Gonzaga	86.683	25-6	78.289	+0, +0.005
39	Georgia Tech	86.446	21-11	81.482	+1, -0.022
40	San Diego St*	86.420	23-8	79.872	+4, +0.570
41	Florida St	86.407	22-9	80.821	+1, +0.015
42	Dayton	86.389	20-12	79.970	-1, -0.060
43	UNLV	86.331	24-8	79.348	-8, -0.572
44	Richmond	86.241	26-7	79.192	-1, +0.377
45	Virginia Tech	85.850	23-8	79.278	+0, +0.039
46	Old Dominion*	85.775	26-8	78.229	+0, +0.018
49	Siena*	85.333	27-6	76.784	-1, +0.023
57	Murray St*	84.658	28-4	72.890	+1, -0.003
63	Cornell NY*	83.969	25-4	75.251	-1, +0.020
73	Wofford*	82.720	25-8	75.720	+0, -0.004
86	Ohio U.*	81.979	20-14	76.940	+2, +0.212
87	Houston*	81.961	18-15	78.664	+7, +0.648
95	Montana*	81.163	20-9	75.227	+0, +0.000
96	Sam Houston St*	81.135	21-7	74.613	+8, +0.640
100	New Mexico St*	80.907	21-11	78.498	+8, +0.625
118	Oakland*	79.729	24-8	76.105	+0, +0.010
137	UC-Santa Barbara*	78.508	19-9	76.289	+2, +0.257
138	Vermont*	78.485	25-9	72.717	+8, +0.579
150	East Tennessee St*	77.722	19-14	75.759	+1, -0.025
155	Morgan St*	77.579	27-9	72.734	+1, +0.021
166	North Texas*	76.872	21-8	73.416	-1, +0.009
177	Lehigh*	76.196	22-10	70.726	+0, +0.002
191	Robert Morris PA*	75.553	23-11	71.958	+0, +0.012
202	Winthrop*	74.590	17-13	73.403	+0, -0.007
248	Arkansas-Pine Bluff*	71.557	17-15	72.683	+9, +0.554