Tuesday, March 16, 2010

NIT First Round Picks

Everyone focuses on the 65 teams in the NCAA Tournament this time of year, but there is the NIT going on too so I thought I'd post the computer's picks for the first round games of that tournament.  For those interested in the NCAA play-in game, I already posted a full preview of that game.

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The pick format is as follows. The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

 .Northeastern          +7.5 over *x          Connecticut  7.4  0.1 0.861 0.505
 .Coastal_Carolina     +11.0 over *x   Alabama-Birmingham  9.2  1.8 0.926 0.611
*xSouth_Florida         -3.5 over  .    North_Carolina_St  4.0  0.5 0.723 0.527
 .Texas_Tech            +9.0 over *x           Seton_Hall  6.6  2.4 0.875 0.664
 .William_&_Mary        +8.5 over *x       North_Carolina  7.3  1.2 0.845 0.564
 .Jackson_St           +21.5 over *x       Mississippi_St 20.4  1.1 0.996 0.557
 .Jacksonville_FL      +14.5 over *x           Arizona_St 11.0  3.5 0.912 0.666
*xRhode_Island          -5.0 over  .         Northwestern  6.2  1.2 0.860 0.585
 .Quinnipiac           +14.5 over *x        Virginia_Tech 14.4  0.1 0.995 0.508
 .Weber_St             +10.0 over *x           Cincinnati  7.7  2.3 0.915 0.659
*xDayton                -7.5 over  .          Illinois_St  8.0  0.5 0.928 0.535
*xKent_St               -3.5 over  .                Tulsa  3.9  0.4 0.692 0.522
 .Troy                 +14.0 over *x          Mississippi 12.6  1.4 0.979 0.588
 .Nevada                +7.5 over *x           Wichita_St  5.4  2.1 0.821 0.638
 .St_John's_NY          +7.0 over *x              Memphis  5.0  2.0 0.767 0.612
.xStony_Brook           +6.5 over  *             Illinois  5.0  1.5 0.764 0.585