Friday, March 19, 2010

NCAA Tournament Day 1 System and Poll Comparison

After day 1 of the NCAA Tournament, here is the system and poll comparison I promised earlier.

System/PollPointsPoint Lost
Coaches130
RPI12-6
Schmidt Computer11-2
Sagarin11-4
AP10-2
Seeds9-4

The coaches poll is clearly beating everyone else going 13 of 16 in the first round but importantly not already losing any points in later rounds as it had Tennessee beating Georgetown in the next round anyway.

The RPI (which I added as a system to track) is doing well too, but has already lost 6 points for Georgetown going 2 rounds shorter than expected.  My computer is slightly ahead of Sagarin as we both are losing a round of Georgetown but Sagarin had Vandy going another round.

Bringing up the rear is the AP and the Tournament Committee at 10 and 9 points respectively but also already losing several point in the next round.  Yes there are always upsets, but in the early review, the seeds do not appear to be handed out properly.

Another update after today's games.