College Basketball Rankings through 3/28/2010

My computer's college basketball rankings through 3/28 are now posted on the web-site.

Below I've listed the rankings for the teams still in the NCAA Tournament.  Three of the final four are in the computer's top 9, but Michigan State is the outlier, not Butler, at #22.  And it appears Vegas sees it the same way with Butler being the pick.  Last week I said the computer liked Duke better than Kentucky as the pick to win it all, and it was proven right, at least thus far with Duke making it and Kentucky losing to WVU.

After the hot start in the first two rounds (29-19 against the spread), the computer stayed cool in the third round going 2-5-1 against the spread, but rebounded in the Elite Eight going 3-1.  For the tournament, it is now 35-25-1.  A summary of picks and previews are available here and here.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
2	Duke	94.950	33-5	82.336	+0, +0.703
7	West Virginia	92.149	31-6	83.548	+1, +0.809
9	Butler	90.327	32-4	80.382	+5, +1.152
22	Michigan St	88.085	28-8	81.488	+6, +0.415

College Basketball Rankings through 3/21/2010

My computer's college basketball rankings through 3/21 are now posted on the web-site.

Below I've listed the rankings for the teams still in the NCAA Tournament.  Only Kansas and Texas A&M are top-10 teams that are missing from the sweet 16 and Cornell at #34 is the lowest ranked team still in.  So a pretty quality field even with some of the upsets and missing teams.  The computer has Duke being the highest rated team still in but Kentucky now seems to be the pick of all the prognosticators.

The computer had a fantastic first round predicting, going 25-7 picking winners and 22-10 against the spread while Vegas went only 19-13 picking winners.  Round 2 didn't go as well at 7-9 against the spread and 11-5 on winners with Vegas 10-6 on winners.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
2	Duke	94.247	31-5	81.833	+0, +0.195
3	Syracuse	93.106	30-4	80.966	+0, +0.021
4	Kentucky	92.582	34-2	80.312	+1, +0.839
5	Kansas St	92.522	27-7	83.312	-1, +0.547
6	Baylor	91.680	26-7	81.687	+0, +0.174
7	Ohio State	91.396	29-7	80.280	+1, +0.036
8	West Virginia	91.340	29-6	83.243	-1, -0.141
10	Purdue	89.467	29-5	81.219	+4, -0.001
14	Butler	89.175	30-4	79.540	+6, +0.780
16	Xavier OH	88.948	26-8	81.083	+3, +0.508
19	St Mary's CA	88.346	27-5	78.002	+8, +0.573
22	Washington	88.062	26-9	80.495	+7, +0.465
25	Northern Iowa	87.808	30-4	78.886	+5, +0.430
26	Tennessee	87.698	27-8	81.222	+7, +0.649
28	Michigan St	87.670	26-8	81.108	-3, -0.274
34	Cornell NY	86.699	27-4	76.238	+29, +2.633

NCAA Tournament Round 2 System and Poll Comparison

With round 2 of the NCAA Tournament complete, here is an update of the system and poll comparison I posted for day 1 and round 1.

System/Poll	Points	Point Lost
Coaches	49	-64
Schmidt Computer	45	-60
AP	44	-64
Sagarin	43	-60
RPI	41	-64
Seeds	38	-64
Vegas	37	-64

And again, the coaches poll continues to lead, but my computer is a clear #2 and could be tied in a way as the coaches poll has already lost Villanova getting to the elite eight while my computer has Baylor getting there.

The AP and Sagarin are close behind but like the coaches, the AP is already losing points for Villanova. After a quick start the RPI has fallen behind and the tournament committee and Vegas are bringing up the rear.

More to come later.

The computer cleans up NCAA first round against the spread

I've been focused on comparing my computer's bracket with other polls and systems but I've also been tracking how its predictions are doing against the spread and in the first round, it cleaned up.

Of the 32 first round games, the computer went a very nice 25-7 picking winners but a perhaps more astounding 22-10 against the spread.  It has slowed down a bit so far in the second round going 7-2 picking winners but only 4-5 against the spread.

Stay tuned for more and get the picks in advance by subscribing to the newsletter.

NCAA Tournament Round 1.5 System and Poll Comparison

After the first day of round 2 of the NCAA Tournament, here is an update of the system and poll comparison I posted for day 1 and round 1.

System/Poll	Points	Point Lost
Coaches	37	-66
Schmidt Computer	33	-60
RPI	33	-64
AP	32	-66
Sagarin	31	-60
Seeds	28	-64
Vegas	27	-64

The coaches poll continues to lead, but my computer has moved into the #2 slot tied with the RPI but having lost fewer future points.  The AP takes a step up over Sagarin while the Seeds and Vegas are still trailing.

Given that everyone had Kansas winning it all, there are a bunch of future lost points there (60) but my computer and Sagarin have only those lost points.  The Coaches poll on the other hand has already lost Temple today and Villanova in the next round.

St. Mary's vs Villanova: Performance charts can be enlightening

On the surface, little St. Mary's, a 10 seed from the West Coast Conference against mighty Villanova, a 2 seed from the vaunted Big East should be a mismatch, but astute followers of college basketball know it very well might not be although the betting public has it as a 5 point game.  Looking at the data and particularly my computer's performance charts might lead one to believe that is still way too many points.

Here is the chart for Villanova.

From this we can see that they were a very good team for a good 2/3 of the year, but the last third didn't do so well even when they did win.  The result is that their rating and ranking by the computer has fallen all the way to #17.  You may argue that they played their toughest games down the stretch and that may be true, but we just saw several other of these tough opponents do poorly in the first round which doesn't help them.

St. Mary's on the other hand has a much different looking chart.

Here we see they have finished very strong with three of their best games of the year in their last 3 outings.  Many of their games have been less "meaningful" (smaller dots) as they've played weaker competition, but the last three have reasonably large dots indicating they are playing well against the best they've come up against all year.

What does this mean for their game?  The computer isn't quite ready to outright predict the upset as Villanova is still rated ever so slightly ahead, but it should be close.

Interested in more details on this or other tournament games?  Considering subscribing to the newsletter! See the 2010 Tournament page for an archive of the previews for subscribers.

NCAA Tournament Round 1 System and Poll Comparison

After round 1 of the NCAA Tournament, here is an update of the system and poll comparison I posted for day 1.

System/Poll	Points	Point Lost
Coaches	27	-2
RPI	25	-4
Schmidt Computer	25	-6
Sagarin	25	-6
AP	24	-4
Seeds	22	-4
Vegas	19	-2

The coaches poll continues to lead, but things tighten up behind them as the three systems are in a virtual tie.  It is interesting how much better the coaches are doing than the AP.

The tournament committee continues to trail but isn't the worst in the future points lost category so perhaps there is hope for a come back.

And with the Vegas picks added, there is a new last place way back at only 19.  But with only 2 points already lost in the next round (Georgetown), there is still hope.

Another update after today's games.

Note: Updated to include Vegas picks as well.

The Computer's Analysis of NCAA Tournament Day 1

After the brackets came out, I posted several entries on what the computer thought of the seeds and strength of each region.  Let's see how some of those comments played out yesterday.

• Kansas State was a #2 but the computer said they could have been a #1 and they played like a #1 winning by 20.
• Villanova was a #2 but the computer said they should be a #3 and they almost lost.  Perhaps they were overrated at a #2?
• The computer liked Georgetown as a #3 along with many others, and they dropped the ball.
• The computer thought New Mexico was a stretch as a #3 and perhaps was right as they eked out a 5 point win over a #14 in Montana.
• The computer thought Vanderbilt was a stretch as a #4 and was proven right as Vandy lost to a #13 Murray State.
• Notre Dame was ok as a #6 but didn't play well and disappointed the computer.
• BYU pulled it out, but the computer liked them better than a #7 and they didn't play that way.
• The computer didn't like UNLV even making the tournament let alone as an 8 seed, and indeed they lost first round to a #9 Northern Iowa.
• The computer liked Texas to be higher than a #8 but was wrong as they lost to a #9 Wake Forest that it didn't think should have made the tourney.
• St. Mary's was a #10 that should have been higher and they proved it beating a #7 Richmond.
• The computer liked Washington as better than a #11 and they proved it beating a #6 Marquette.

So, the computer was right on some and wrong on others, but I think it was right more than wrong which led to it going 11-5 versus the seeds going only 9-7 yesterday.  We'll see how day 2 plays out.

NCAA Tournament Day 1 System and Poll Comparison

After day 1 of the NCAA Tournament, here is the system and poll comparison I promised earlier.

System/Poll	Points	Point Lost
Coaches	13	0
RPI	12	-6
Schmidt Computer	11	-2
Sagarin	11	-4
AP	10	-2
Seeds	9	-4

The coaches poll is clearly beating everyone else going 13 of 16 in the first round but importantly not already losing any points in later rounds as it had Tennessee beating Georgetown in the next round anyway.

The RPI (which I added as a system to track) is doing well too, but has already lost 6 points for Georgetown going 2 rounds shorter than expected.  My computer is slightly ahead of Sagarin as we both are losing a round of Georgetown but Sagarin had Vandy going another round.

Bringing up the rear is the AP and the Tournament Committee at 10 and 9 points respectively but also already losing several point in the next round.  Yes there are always upsets, but in the early review, the seeds do not appear to be handed out properly.

Another update after today's games.

System and Poll NCAA Tournament Bracket Comparison

Something I do every year is fill out a bracket using my computer's rankings, but then for comparison do the same for Sagarin's rankings, the AP and Coaches polls, and simply the higher seeds.  The idea is to be able to compare each system/poll to see how well each one does at predicting the tournament and thus which one can be considered the "best".

This year is not unlike past years and I have filled out a bracket for all the above and will be scoring them like most pools do, giving 1 point for a first round correct pick, 2 for a second, 4 for a third, and so on.  I'll post updates here after the completion of each day of play so all can see how the scoring progresses.

And this year with every system/poll having Kansas #1 and thus picking them as the champion, the differences are really going to boil down to how each system/poll picks the early rounds.  And each one does pick at least a few upsets and there isn't complete agreement amongst them, so it will be interesting.

Let the games begin!

Observations from the computer's bracket

As I filled out the computer's bracket, I came across some interesting observations.  For the record the computer's bracket simply has the higher rated teams going the farthest using the rankings through Sunday the 14th.  You'd think this might make for a boring bracket but there are a few surprises and interesting observations.

• Kansas State has the toughest road to the Final Four of the computer's top-4 as the computer has them losing to Syracuse in the Regional Final.
• The highest seeded upset predicted is Baylor to get to the Regional Final, not Villanova (3 over 2).
• BYU has a tough road for being ranked #10 having to face #4 Kansas State in the second round.
• Texas A&M at #15 is the highest ranked team to not be picked to make the sweet 16.
• Butler at #20 is the lowest ranked team to be picked to make the sweet 16.
• The west region (Syracuse) is the slowest to fill up going down the rankings, an indication of an easy road for Syracuse.
• Missouri is the first upset (10 over 7) predicted in the first round.
• Utah State is the highest ranked team (#26) to not be picked to win a game.  Clemson at #28 is the second.
• The south region is the first one to completely fill up (St. Mary's at #27 completes it).
• Northern Iowa is a 9 seed over an 8 prediction.
• The east is the second region to fill up (New Mexico at #31).
• The midwest is the third region to fill up (Ok. State at #36).
• The lowest ranked team picked to win a game is Gonzaga at #38.

There you have it.  In addition to tracking my computer's picks, I will also track how the major polls would pick, the Sagarin rankings, and a few others and will be posting periodically how they compare.

Now to watch the games!

NIT First Round Picks

Everyone focuses on the 65 teams in the NCAA Tournament this time of year, but there is the NIT going on too so I thought I'd post the computer's picks for the first round games of that tournament.  For those interested in the NCAA play-in game, I already posted a full preview of that game.

If you are interested in getting these picks for the NCAA Tournament along with some full preview of those games, consider signing up for a subscription to the newsletter.

The pick format is as follows. The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

 .Northeastern          +7.5 over *x          Connecticut  7.4  0.1 0.861 0.505
 .Coastal_Carolina     +11.0 over *x   Alabama-Birmingham  9.2  1.8 0.926 0.611
*xSouth_Florida         -3.5 over  .    North_Carolina_St  4.0  0.5 0.723 0.527
 .Texas_Tech            +9.0 over *x           Seton_Hall  6.6  2.4 0.875 0.664
 .William_&_Mary        +8.5 over *x       North_Carolina  7.3  1.2 0.845 0.564
 .Jackson_St           +21.5 over *x       Mississippi_St 20.4  1.1 0.996 0.557
 .Jacksonville_FL      +14.5 over *x           Arizona_St 11.0  3.5 0.912 0.666
*xRhode_Island          -5.0 over  .         Northwestern  6.2  1.2 0.860 0.585
 .Quinnipiac           +14.5 over *x        Virginia_Tech 14.4  0.1 0.995 0.508
 .Weber_St             +10.0 over *x           Cincinnati  7.7  2.3 0.915 0.659
*xDayton                -7.5 over  .          Illinois_St  8.0  0.5 0.928 0.535
*xKent_St               -3.5 over  .                Tulsa  3.9  0.4 0.692 0.522
 .Troy                 +14.0 over *x          Mississippi 12.6  1.4 0.979 0.588
 .Nevada                +7.5 over *x           Wichita_St  5.4  2.1 0.821 0.638
 .St_John's_NY          +7.0 over *x              Memphis  5.0  2.0 0.767 0.612
.xStony_Brook           +6.5 over  *             Illinois  5.0  1.5 0.764 0.585

Analyzing the NCAA Tournament Regions

When the brackets come out, everyone scrambles to look at which region is the easiest and who has the simplest path to the Final Four.  The great thing about a ratings system is that analysis just falls out without any subjectivity.  So without further adieu, here is a breakdown of the regions using the week 18 ratings from my computer.

For each region, I list the average rating, the average rating for the 1-12 seeds (so as not not have the lower teams skew this too much), and the average ranking for each of those groups too.  The bold indicates the toughest rating/ranking and the italics the easiest.

Region	Avg. Rating	Top-12 Avg. Rating	Avg. Ranking	Top-12 Avg. Ranking
South (Duke)	86.480	88.886	49.875	22.083
West (Syracuse)	86.259	88.360	49.438	25.667
East (Kentucky)	86.120	88.184	49.5	26.25
Midwest (Kansas)	86.088	88.283	54.125	30.5

From this, it would appear that Duke has the toughest road to the Final Four with the highest average ratings and the highest ranking for the top-12 seeds.  And Kansas, as should be the case given they are the top seed overall, has the easiest road.

This goes against some of the analysis I've seen that claims Duke has the easiest road.  Clearly the computer disagrees and we'll have to compare bracket performance to determine whose is right.

Questions?  Comments?

NCAA Tournament Newsletter and Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs Winthrop Preview

Finally, we know the 65 teams in the tournament and we can begin filling out our brackets.  A tool I'll be using to fill out mine is my computer's ratings which anyone can do, but I'll also be using it's picks against the spread, confidence in picks, and performance charts which are only available to subscribers to the Schmidt Computer Ratings 2010 NCAA Tournament Newsletter.

If you are wondering what you'll get in the newsletter, take a look at the newsletters and bowl game previews that were part of the 2009/2010 football newsletter.  Or, as a sneak peek into what the basketball previews will look like, below is a preview of the Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs Winthrop play-in game.

Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Winthrop play on 3/16 for the right to play Duke in the first round of the NCAA tournament.

Arkansas-Pine Bluff is ranked #248 by the computer with 71.552 ratings points and a record of 17-15.  Their performance chart can be found below and shows they started off with a bunch of losses, but finished with wins and had their best game of the year to finish off their tournament.

Winthrop is ranked #202 by the computer with 74.582 points and a record of 17-13.  Their performance chart can be found below and shows they started the season off slow with a bunch of losses, but got it together mid year and finished the season with 2 of their best games of the year.

The teams are not separated by 2 degrees in any way but are separated by 3 degrees in 26 ways.

The line is Winthrop by 5.5 and the computer agrees they should win but by just 3 points.  Using the newsletter format* the pick is:

.Arkansas-Pine_Bluff   +5.5 over *.             Winthrop  3.0  2.5 0.707 0.671

Enjoy!

* - Pick format. The x denotes the home team.  The * denotes the pick to win the game.  The . is just a place holder.  The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports.  The team on the left is the pick against the spread.  The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by.  The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction.  The next column is the confidence of my pick to win.  The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.


Again, if you are interested in getting this type of preview for all NCAA tournament games, subscribe to the newsletter today!  E-mail any questions or leave a comment.

What the computer thinks of the NCAA tournament committee's selections

With the last 4 games played and the tournament selections made, we can now get down to business about looking at the 65 teams, but before we do that, let's use the computer to critique the selection committee's choices.  The latest rankings by the computer are here.

The list of teams the computer says should have been in the tournament are listed below, but the only change from yesterday is that Mississippi State's close loss to Kentucky did indeed move them ahead of Virginia Tech.  But that doesn't really matter now as the picks have been made so lets list them by seeds:

Note: Updated 3/15 AM to include all, not just Division I-A games in the source data.  Only minor changes

• #1's


• Kansas - The computer agrees they are a 1 and that they are the top seed overall.
• Kentucky - Only to the second team and the computer disagrees having UK #5 and thus should have been a 2.
• Duke - Yep, a 1 with the computer having them #2 overall.
• Syracuse - Yep, a 1 as well and #3 overall.



• #2's


• Ohio State - A 2 is appropriate (#8 overall)
• West Virginia - A 2 is right (#7)
• Kansas State - The computer liked them (barely) as the other 1 seed (#4)
• Villanova - The computer had them a 3 (#11)



• #3's


• Georgetown - A 3 is right (#9)
• New Mexico - First big stretch as the computer as the computer has them #31!
• Pitt - Also a stretch the computer having them #23
• Baylor - Could have been a 2 (#6)



• #4's


• Maryland - A 4 is right (#13)
• Wisconsin - Could have been a 3 (#12)
• Vanderbilt - Another stretch (#32)
• Purdue - A 4 is right (#14)



• #5's


• Michigan State - A little high here, should be a 7 (#25)
• Temple - A 5 is right (#17)
• Butler - A 5 is right (#20)
• Texas A&M - Could have been a 4 (#15)



• #6's


• Tennessee - A bit high, should be a 9 (#33)
• Marquette - Could have been a 5 (#18)
• Xavier - Could have been a 5 (#19)
• Notre Dame - A 6 is right (#21)



• #7's


• Oklahoma St - A bit high, should be a 9 (#36)
• Clemson - A 7 is right (#28)
• BYU - Much too low, should be a 3 (#10)
• Richmond - Too high, should be an 11 (#43)



• #8's


• UNLV - Shouldn't have made it, first out (#46)
• Texas - A bit low, should be a 6 (#22)
• Gonzaga - A bit high, should be a 10 (#38)
• California - A bit low, should be a 4 (#16)



• #9's


• Northern Iowa - Close, should be an 8 (#30)
• Wake Forest - Second that should not have made the tourney (#59)
• Florida State - Close, should be an 11 (#41)
• Louisville - Close, should be a 10 (#37)



• #10's


• Georgia Tech - A 10 is right (#40)
• Missouri - Too low, should be a 6 (#24)
• Florida - Third that shouldn't have made it (#49)
• St. Mary's - Too low, should be a 7 (#27)



• #11's


• San Diego State - Close, should be a 10 (#39)
• Washington - Too low, should be an 8 (#29)
• Minnesota - Too low, should be a 9 (#34)
• Old Dominion - Close, should be a 12 (#47)



• #12's


• New Mexico State - A bit high, should be a 14 (#97)
• Cornell - Close, should be a 13 (#63)
• UTEP - Too low, should be a 9 (#35)
• Utah State - Way too low, should be a 7! (#26)



• #13's


• Houston - A 13 is right (#87)
• Wofford - A 13 is right (#75)
• Murray State - Close, should be a 12 (#57)
• Siena - Close, should be a 12 (#50)



• #14's


• Ohio U - Close, should be a 13 (#86)
• Montana - A 14 is right (#95)
• Oakland - A 14 is right (#118)
• Sam Houston State - A 14 is right (#96)



• #15's


• UC Santa Barbara - A 15 is right (#137)
• Morgan State - A 15 is right (#156)
• North Texas - Close, should be a 16 (#168)
• Robert Morris - Close, should be a 16 (#185)



• #16's


• Lehigh - A 16 is right (#179)
• East Tennessee State - Close, should be a 15 (#151)
• Vermont - Close, should be a 15 (#140)
• Arkansas Pine Bluff - A 16 is right (#248)
• Winthrop - A 16 is right (#202)

So, a few seeds way off (Utah State, Richmond, BYU, Missouri) , and three that the computer says shouldn't have made it (UNLV, Wake Forest, and Florida).  Who should have made it instead of those 2? Virginia Tech should have been the last team in (#45), Mississippi State right behind them (#44), and Dayton should also have made it (#42).

Here is the list of who should have made it.  Those with an asterisk got the auto-bids for their conferences.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Kansas*	96.695	32-2	81.936	+0, +0.406
2	Duke*	94.052	29-5	82.194	+0, -0.656
3	Syracuse	93.085	28-4	81.279	+0, -0.525
4	Kansas St	91.975	25-7	83.212	+2, +0.688
5	Kentucky*	91.743	32-2	80.255	+0, +0.337
6	Baylor	91.506	24-7	81.465	+1, +0.246
7	West Virginia*	91.481	27-6	83.783	-3, -0.327
8	Ohio State*	91.360	27-7	80.386	+0, +0.400
9	Georgetown DC	91.026	23-10	83.837	+7, +1.653
10	Brigham Young	90.322	28-5	78.355	+0, -0.468
11	Villanova	90.242	24-7	82.614	+0, -0.364
12	Wisconsin	89.883	23-8	81.520	+0, -0.676
13	Maryland	89.630	22-8	81.139	+0, -0.622
14	Purdue	89.468	27-5	81.085	-5, -1.392
15	Texas A&M	89.170	22-9	82.486	-1, -0.443
16	California	89.107	23-10	81.780	+3, +0.129
17	Temple*	89.069	29-5	80.618	+6, +0.764
18	Marquette	88.531	22-11	81.482	-1, -0.520
19	Xavier OH	88.440	24-8	80.791	+1, -0.360
20	Butler*	88.395	28-4	79.054	+6, +0.572
21	Notre Dame	88.356	23-11	80.569	+7, +0.728
22	Texas	88.287	24-9	81.613	-4, -0.723
23	Pittsburgh	88.236	24-8	81.738	-2, -0.329
24	Missouri	88.204	22-10	80.271	-9, -1.253
25	Michigan St	87.944	24-8	81.096	-3, -0.479
26	Utah St	87.911	26-7	77.637	+1, +0.183
27	St Mary's CA*	87.773	25-5	77.674	+10, +0.925
28	Clemson	87.743	21-10	81.259	-4, -0.509
29	Washington*	87.597	24-9	80.411	+7, +0.709
30	Northern Iowa*	87.378	28-4	78.375	+1, -0.065
31	New Mexico	87.131	29-4	79.036	-2, -0.483
32	Vanderbilt	87.112	23-8	81.499	-2, -0.396
33	Tennessee	87.049	25-8	81.012	-1, -0.359
34	Minnesota	87.040	21-13	81.111	+13, +1.181
35	UTEP	86.997	26-6	77.238	+3, +0.176
36	Oklahoma St	86.941	22-10	80.788	-2, -0.251
37	Louisville	86.920	20-12	82.059	-4, -0.421
38	Gonzaga	86.802	25-6	78.407	-13, -1.022
39	San Diego St*	86.726	23-8	80.095	+6, +0.744
40	Georgia Tech	86.681	21-12	81.943	+4, +0.454
41	Florida St	86.534	22-9	80.958	-6, -0.560
42	Dayton	86.328	20-12	79.963	-3, -0.321
43	Richmond	86.264	26-8	79.580	+0, -0.049
44	Mississippi St	86.030	23-11	79.664	+12, +1.182
45	Virginia Tech	85.950	23-8	79.377	-3, -0.380
47	Old Dominion*	85.868	26-8	78.328	-1, -0.016
50	Siena*	85.248	27-6	76.776	+4, -0.013
57	Murray St*	84.763	28-4	73.003	+0, -0.045
63	Cornell NY*	84.066	25-4	75.351	-1, -0.001
75	Wofford*	82.719	25-8	75.831	+1, +0.028
86	Ohio U.*	82.087	20-14	77.052	+15, +1.336
87	Houston*	82.069	18-15	78.773	+19, +1.479
95	Montana*	81.495	20-9	75.497	+1, +0.399
96	Sam Houston St*	81.250	21-7	74.723	-1, +0.116
97	New Mexico St*	81.208	21-11	78.728	+24, +1.663
118	Oakland*	79.848	24-8	76.224	+15, +0.960
137	UC-Santa Barbara*	78.619	19-9	76.404	+13, +0.706
140	Vermont*	78.382	25-9	72.732	+6, +0.296
151	East Tennessee St*	77.824	19-14	75.863	+0, -0.080
156	Morgan St*	77.681	27-9	72.829	+4, +0.459
168	North Texas*	76.837	22-8	73.422	+4, +0.270
179	Lehigh*	76.114	22-10	70.718	+6, +0.187
185	Robert Morris PA*	75.868	23-11	72.187	+7, +0.261
202	Winthrop*	74.677	17-13	73.493	+0, -0.082
248	Arkansas-Pine Bluff*	71.670	17-15	72.800	+6, +0.386

The computer's view of ESPN's Bubble Watch

ESPN has updated their Bubble Watch through yesterday's games and it is always interesting to compare what they list against what the computer says.  So here goes.  See the last blog entry from last night for the current computer's rankings.

ACC

ESPN has Duke, Maryland, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, and FSU all in with Virginia Tech a "should be in".  The computer agrees that VT should be in, albeit the last at-large in, but doesn't think WF should be as they are only #59 compared with VT's #45.

Big East

ESPN has West Virginia, Syracuse, Georgetown, Villanova, Pitt, Louisville, Notre Dame, and Marquette in with Seton Hall having work to do.  The computer agrees Seton Hall has work to do being at #54, but actually likes UConn better at #48 although they shouldn't be in presently.

Big Televen

ESPN has Purdue, Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Michigan State in with Minnesota a "should be" and Illinois work to do.  The computer says Minnesota is better than a should be having them with lock status at #29 but Illinois having a lot of work to do at #56.

Big-12

ESPN has Kansas, K-State, Baylor, TAMU, Texas, OSU, and Missouri in and no one on the bubble.  The computer agrees.

Pac-10

ESPN has Washington and Cal in and the computer agrees, although ASU could be bubble worthy at #53.

SEC


ESPN has Kentucky, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt in with Florida, Ole Miss, and Miss St. having work to do.  The computer agrees having MSU just outside at #47 and Florida and Ole Miss just behind at #50 and #51 respectively.

Mountain West


ESPN has San Diego State, New Mexico, BYU, and UNLV in and the computer agrees.

Atlantic-10


ESPN has Temple, Xavier, and Richmond in with Rhode Island having work to do.  The computer agrees on the first 3 having Richmond the next to last in at #44, but likes Dayton much better than Rhode Island as they are #42 (should be in) compared to #58.

Others

ESPN has Utah State and UTEP as "should be in" and the computer agrees having them #26 and #35 so there shouldn't be any question.

If you are interested in detailed comparisons/charts, leave a comment and I'll post them.

More to come after today's games.  And follow @computerratings to see other periodic updates.

Updated: Who the computer says should make the NCAA tournament

With just 4 games remaining tomorrow, who the computer says should make the 65 team tournament is getting clearer.  And with a few upsets getting auto-bids for a few teams that wouldn't have gotten them otherwise, the number of at-large spots for teams on the bubble has shrunk making things more interesting.

The last at-large spot now goes to #45 Virginia Tech after it had been in the high 40's previously.  This thanks to New Mexico State and Houston at #100 and #87 getting in.  The other 3 making up the last 4 in are Richmond, UNLV, and Dayton.  The first 4 out are Mississippi State, UConn, Florida, and Ole Miss.  It is interesting that the SEC has 3 of those 4 on the outside looking in.

But, the 4 games tomorrow could change things!  Mississippi State could play their way in ahead of VT even with a close loss.  Anything better than a 3 point loss to Kentucky would move them fractionally ahead of VT.

Georgia Tech is pretty secure, anything better than a 20 point loss should keep them from dropping out of the teams that should be in.  Minnesota too should be safe.

The Richmond situation is more interesting.  They are in at #44 now but a 12 point loss to Temple could drop them behind both VT and Miss St.

According to ESPN's latest bracketology, VT, Minnesota, and Miss St are the last 3 in.  I have Minnesota in comfortably and they seem to have Miss St in instead of Dayton.  They don't even have Dayton in the list of the first 4 out.  Just for fun, lets take a look at the performance charts for both teams to compare.

Both teams played better earlier in the year, Miss St had two bad losses late, Dayton one, but Dayton lost in their semis while Miss St has made the final.  If you want to give more weight to the very recent, you can make an argument that Dayton should be out and Miss St in but the computer does look at the whole year while giving the most recent some additional weight.

Anyway, it will be interesting to see what happens.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Kansas*	96.600	32-2	81.833	+0, +0.177
2	Duke*	94.126	28-5	81.962	+0, -0.344
3	Syracuse	92.996	28-4	81.180	+0, -0.025
4	Kentucky*	91.914	31-2	79.980	+3, +0.716
5	Kansas St	91.895	25-7	83.119	-1, -0.216
6	Baylor	91.407	24-7	81.357	-1, -0.045
7	West Virginia*	91.365	27-6	83.659	-1, +0.032
8	Georgetown DC	90.923	23-10	83.732	+0, -0.091
9	Ohio State*	90.507	26-7	80.116	+1, +0.052
10	Villanova	90.137	24-7	82.506	+1, -0.001
11	Brigham Young	90.011	28-5	78.165	+1, -0.091
12	Wisconsin	89.753	23-8	81.383	+1, -0.033
13	Maryland	89.530	22-8	81.031	+1, -0.024
14	Purdue	89.396	27-5	80.984	-5, -1.181
15	Texas A&M	89.085	22-9	82.385	+1, +0.022
16	California	88.969	23-10	81.635	-1, -0.258
17	Temple*	88.957	28-5	80.378	+2, +0.443
18	Xavier OH	88.377	24-8	80.708	-1, -0.396
19	Butler*	88.282	28-4	78.941	+3, +0.032
20	Marquette	88.261	22-11	81.269	+0, -0.022
21	Notre Dame	88.257	23-11	80.467	+0, -0.011
22	Texas	88.184	24-9	81.496	+1, -0.020
23	Pittsburgh	88.144	24-8	81.637	+1, -0.000
24	Missouri	88.102	22-10	80.153	+1, -0.022
25	Michigan St	87.878	24-8	81.018	+1, +0.014
26	Utah St	87.789	26-7	77.523	-8, -0.773
27	Clemson	87.643	21-10	81.154	+1, -0.022
28	St Mary's CA*	87.637	25-5	77.532	+3, +0.014
29	Minnesota	87.556	21-12	80.653	+10, +0.993
30	Washington*	87.471	24-9	80.278	+3, +0.291
31	Northern Iowa*	87.281	28-4	78.259	+1, -0.012
32	Vanderbilt	87.021	23-8	81.403	-5, -0.658
33	New Mexico	87.002	29-4	78.907	+1, +0.039
34	Tennessee	86.988	25-8	80.938	-5, -0.676
35	UTEP	86.876	26-6	77.112	-5, -0.780
36	Louisville	86.851	20-12	81.995	+1, -0.009
37	Oklahoma St	86.842	22-10	80.684	-1, -0.037
38	Gonzaga	86.683	25-6	78.289	+0, +0.005
39	Georgia Tech	86.446	21-11	81.482	+1, -0.022
40	San Diego St*	86.420	23-8	79.872	+4, +0.570
41	Florida St	86.407	22-9	80.821	+1, +0.015
42	Dayton	86.389	20-12	79.970	-1, -0.060
43	UNLV	86.331	24-8	79.348	-8, -0.572
44	Richmond	86.241	26-7	79.192	-1, +0.377
45	Virginia Tech	85.850	23-8	79.278	+0, +0.039
46	Old Dominion*	85.775	26-8	78.229	+0, +0.018
49	Siena*	85.333	27-6	76.784	-1, +0.023
57	Murray St*	84.658	28-4	72.890	+1, -0.003
63	Cornell NY*	83.969	25-4	75.251	-1, +0.020
73	Wofford*	82.720	25-8	75.720	+0, -0.004
86	Ohio U.*	81.979	20-14	76.940	+2, +0.212
87	Houston*	81.961	18-15	78.664	+7, +0.648
95	Montana*	81.163	20-9	75.227	+0, +0.000
96	Sam Houston St*	81.135	21-7	74.613	+8, +0.640
100	New Mexico St*	80.907	21-11	78.498	+8, +0.625
118	Oakland*	79.729	24-8	76.105	+0, +0.010
137	UC-Santa Barbara*	78.508	19-9	76.289	+2, +0.257
138	Vermont*	78.485	25-9	72.717	+8, +0.579
150	East Tennessee St*	77.722	19-14	75.759	+1, -0.025
155	Morgan St*	77.579	27-9	72.734	+1, +0.021
166	North Texas*	76.872	21-8	73.416	-1, +0.009
177	Lehigh*	76.196	22-10	70.726	+0, +0.002
191	Robert Morris PA*	75.553	23-11	71.958	+0, +0.012
202	Winthrop*	74.590	17-13	73.403	+0, -0.007
248	Arkansas-Pine Bluff*	71.557	17-15	72.683	+9, +0.554

Who the computer says should make the NCAA tournament 3/13 version

Here is the updated list of who the computer says should make the NCAA tournament using games played through Friday.  The change column is the change in ranking/rating since yesterday.  Those with an asterisk are those that are already in or projected to be the conference representative.

The last 4 at-large in would presently be San Diego State, Virginia Tech, UConn, and Florida.  The first 4 on the outside would be Ole Miss, Mississippi St., Memphis, and Rhode Island.  The next 4 after that are Seton Hall, ASU, Illinois, and Virginia Commonwealth.

Some of the possible changes with a few games left are:

• Rhode Island may have a chance to eke into an at-large spot with a win today over Temple in the A-10 semis.
• Mississippi St. made a move to get to the second team not making it and a win today would likely get them in, possibly at the expense of SEC foe Florida.
• Illinois has farther to go, but a win over Ohio State could do it for them.
• Virginia Tech, UConn, and Florida are done and with wins by teams behind them could be passed.
• San Diego State with a loss could also get passed.

Stay tuned for more updates.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Kansas*	96.423	31-2	81.562	+0, +0.454
2	Duke*	94.470	27-5	81.899	+0, -0.051
3	Syracuse	93.021	28-4	81.196	+0, +0.110
4	Kansas St	92.111	25-6	82.722	+1, +0.442
5	Baylor	91.452	24-7	81.391	-1, -0.384
6	West Virginia*	91.333	26-6	83.479	+0, -0.039
7	Kentucky*	91.198	30-2	79.813	+0, -0.042
8	Georgetown DC	91.014	23-9	83.485	+4, +0.782
9	Purdue*	90.577	27-4	80.728	+0, -0.029
10	Ohio State	90.455	25-7	79.987	-2, -0.305
11	Villanova	90.138	24-7	82.506	+2, -0.035
12	Brigham Young	90.102	28-5	78.233	-2, -0.389
13	Wisconsin	89.786	23-8	81.437	-2, -0.545
14	Maryland	89.554	22-8	81.044	+0, -0.505
15	California*	89.227	23-9	81.407	+2, +0.213
16	Texas A&M	89.063	22-9	82.360	-1, -0.251
17	Xavier OH*	88.773	24-7	80.537	+1, +0.121
18	Utah St*	88.562	26-6	77.396	+8, +0.581
19	Temple	88.514	27-5	80.271	+4, +0.329
20	Marquette	88.283	22-11	81.290	-4, -0.791
21	Notre Dame	88.268	23-11	80.481	+0, +0.065
22	Butler*	88.250	28-4	78.910	+0, +0.052
23	Texas	88.204	24-9	81.516	-4, -0.027
24	Pittsburgh	88.144	24-8	81.636	+0, +0.016
25	Missouri	88.124	22-10	80.160	+0, +0.084
26	Michigan St	87.864	24-8	80.998	-6, -0.350
27	Vanderbilt	87.679	23-7	81.251	+2, +0.317
28	Clemson	87.665	21-10	81.177	-1, +0.002
29	Tennessee	87.664	25-7	80.612	+4, +0.494
30	UTEP*	87.656	26-5	76.890	+2, +0.478
31	St Mary's CA*	87.623	25-5	77.519	-3, +0.082
32	Northern Iowa*	87.293	28-4	78.267	-2, +0.034
33	Washington	87.180	23-9	80.007	+4, +0.390
34	New Mexico	86.963	29-4	78.869	-3, -0.234
35	UNLV*	86.903	24-7	79.106	+5, +0.472
36	Oklahoma St	86.879	22-10	80.703	-1, +0.023
37	Louisville	86.860	20-12	81.998	-1, +0.020
38	Gonzaga	86.678	25-6	78.285	+0, +0.047
39	Minnesota	86.563	20-12	80.445	+2, +0.337
40	Georgia Tech	86.468	20-11	81.435	+4, +0.448
41	Dayton	86.449	20-12	80.023	-2, -0.142
42	Florida St	86.392	22-9	80.815	-8, -0.545
43	Richmond	85.864	25-7	78.905	+0, -0.187
44	San Diego St	85.850	22-8	79.686	+4, +0.293
45	Virginia Tech	85.811	23-8	79.248	-3, -0.354
46	Old Dominion*	85.757	26-8	78.205	-1, +0.051
47	Connecticut	85.456	17-15	82.866	+2, +0.005
48	Siena*	85.310	27-6	76.759	+2, +0.047
49	Florida	85.293	21-12	80.128	-3, -0.323
58	Murray St*	84.661	28-4	72.896	-2, +0.020
62	Cornell NY*	83.949	25-4	75.225	+0, +0.056
73	Wofford*	82.724	25-8	75.725	+2, +0.043
88	Ohio U.*	81.767	19-14	76.846	+5, +0.443
95	Montana*	81.163	20-9	75.218	+0, +0.062
104	Sam Houston St*	80.495	20-7	74.502	+1, +0.028
117	Pacific CA*	79.727	20-11	76.044	-7, -0.375
118	Oakland*	79.719	24-8	76.093	+0, +0.016
146	Vermont*	77.906	24-9	72.613	-2, +0.040
151	East Tennessee St*	77.747	19-14	75.794	-2, +0.022
156	Morgan St*	77.558	26-9	72.766	+2, +0.123
165	North Texas*	76.863	21-8	73.421	-1, +0.022
177	Lehigh*	76.194	22-10	70.715	+6, +0.468
191	Robert Morris PA*	75.541	23-11	71.947	+0, +0.054
202	Winthrop*	74.597	17-13	73.411	+0, +0.041
257	Arkansas-Pine Bluff*	71.003	16-15	72.879	+0, +0.044