This event has the 17 teams.
Using my ratings' top-10 averages, the actual schedules, and running things through a million iterations, the following is observed.
The range of top-10 averages is actually not too large for this group, 3.89 at the low end to 4.06 at the high and the distribution is pretty consistent in that range. This could make for a very competitive Nationals.
With the actual schedules the USTA set up, there are ways for more than 4 teams to finish undefeated, meaning a team that doesn't lose could be sent home without making the semis. The chances are pretty slim, just 0.07% chance of 5 teams finishing undefeated, so it is unlikely, but there is actually an extremely slim chance of 6 undefeated as 2 of the million simulations had this occur. Note that there is no way to guarantee just 4 with 17 teams.
In an ideal world, there are the 4 undefeated teams and there is no controversy, but the simulation says there is just a 2.7% chance of this happening.
That means though that there is an over 92% chance of having a tie for 4th place. The most likely number of teams in the tie is 4 (28%), but the chances of 3 to 6 is 85% respectively, so there is a good chance of a good sized tie. The largest number the simulation shows is 14!
When there is a tie for 4th, the first tie-breaker is courts won/lost and in 17% of the cases the 4th and 5th teams will be tied on courts meaning it will go to head to head, but the teams are unlikely to have played, so it will go to the sets tie-breaker probably most of that 17% of the time. The number of teams in this tie-breaker will usually be two, but 17% of the time it will be 3 or more.
It is also interesting to see how many wins the 4th place team has most often, and 97% of the time they'll have 3 and just 2.7% of the time they'll have 4, but in over 4,000 of the million simulations, 4th place had just 2 wins!
Since the highest rated team could have the toughest schedule, they won't necessarily be the team most likely to make the semis. In this case, the top teams have relatively tough schedules and they have a good shot at the semis with the top-4 all being between 65% and 85%, but the team with the best chance of making the semis is the #7 team due to them having an easier schedule.
That is a lot of interesting but unspecific information, so lets just get to it to see who the simulation says the favorite is. That would be Florida and Texas.
If you'd like to get more details of the simulation and each team's chances, or are interested in a flight or team report to help scout your opponents, contact me.
Update: I've now posted a prediction of who will make the semis and win.
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