This event has only 16 teams, Hawaii is missing from the schedule as I write this, so we'll simulate with 16 rather than the normal 17.
Using my ratings' top-10 averages, the actual schedules, and running things through a million iterations, the following is observed.
The range of top-10 averages is pretty large for this group, from 4.31 all the way to 4.53, but the highest rated 7 teams are pretty close, 4.47 to 4.53.
With the actual schedules the USTA set up, there are ways for more than 4 teams to finish undefeated, meaning a team that doesn't lose could be sent home without making the semis. The chances are pretty slim, just 0.05% chance of 5 teams finishing undefeated, but there is actually a chance of 6 to finish without a loss! In the million simulations, it only happened 3 times, but still, it is possible. Note that it would have been possible to have a schedule that precluded 6 teams from being undefeated, but with 16 teams, there is no way to guarantee just 4.
In an ideal world, there are the 4 undefeated teams and there is no controversy, and the simulation says there is a 10.5% chance of this happening.
That means though that there is nearly a 90% chance of having a tie for 4th place. The most likely number of teams in the tie is 3 (32%), but there is a 54% chance there are 4 to 6 teams in the tie. In some really rare cases, the simulation showed there could be as many as 11 teams tied for 4th!
When there is a tie for 4th, the first tie-breaker is courts won/lost and in 15% of the cases the 4th and 5th teams will be tied on courts meaning it will go to head to head, but the teams are unlikely to have played, so it will go to the sets tie-breaker probably that 15% of the time. The number of teams in this tie-breaker will usually be two, but 13% of the time it will be 3 or more.
It is also interesting to see how many wins the 4th place team has most often, and 90% of the time they'll have 3 and 10% of the time they'll have 4, but in 226 of the million simulations, 4th place had just 2 wins!
Since the highest rated team could have the toughest schedule, they won't necessarily be the team most likely to make the semis. And in this case, the 3rd highest rated team and the highest rated team have basically the same chance of at least being tied for 4th at 97%. The 2nd highest rated team has a tough schedule and only has a 78% chance of finishing 4th. The 4th highest rated team is even worse though, just a 44% chance while the 5th place team has an 87% chance.
Similarly, lower rated teams aren't completely out of the running. The 13th rated team actually has an 8% chance of at least tying for 4th, and the 10th rated team a 19% chance.
That is a lot of interesting but unspecific information, so lets just get to it to see who the simulation says the favorite is. That would be co-favorites in this case, Southern Cal and Florida. Who are teams outside the top-5 by the ratings but might surprise? Look for Southern and Caribbean to have a good shot.
If you'd like to get more details of the simulation and each team's chances, or are interested in a flight or team report to help scout your opponents, contact me.
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