This event has the full set of 17 teams.
Using my ratings' top-10 averages, the actual schedules, and running things through a million iterations, the following is observed.
The range of top-10 averages is pretty large for this group, from 4.23 all the way to 4.48, but there is a big group in the middle with 7 between 4.33 and 4.37.
With the actual schedules the USTA set up, there are ways for more than 4 teams to finish undefeated, meaning a team that doesn't lose could be sent home without making the semis. The ratings are top heavy enough that the chances are pretty good of 5 teams finishing undefeated, 11%, but there is actually a chance for 6 to finish without a loss! In the million simulations, it only happened 393 times so not a huge chance, but a lot higher than the 4.5 men. Note that it would have been possible to have a schedule that precluded 6 teams from being undefeated, but with 17 teams, there is no way to guarantee just 4.
In an ideal world, there are the 4 undefeated teams and there is no controversy, and the simulation says there is a 38% chance of this happening.
That means though that there is a 62% chance of having a tie for 4th place. The most likely number of teams in the tie is 5 (44%), but there is a 16% chance there is 6 or 7 in the tie. In some really rare cases, the simulation showed there could be as many as 10 teams tied for 4th!
When there is a tie for 4th, the first tie-breaker is courts won/lost and in 9% of the cases the 4th and 5th teams will be tied on courts meaning it will go to head to head, but the teams are unlikely to have played, so it will go to the sets tie-breaker probably that 9% of the time. The number of teams in this tie-breaker will usually be two, but 16% of the time it will be 3 or more.
It is also interesting to see how many wins the 4th place team has most often, and just 51% of the time they'll have 3 and 49% of the time they'll have 4, this is a top-heavy event with favorites expected to advance. And in just 2 of the million simulations, did the 4th place team have just 2 wins.
Since the highest rated team could have the toughest schedule, they won't necessarily be the team most likely to make the semis. But in this case the top rated team does have the best shot at being at least in a tie for 4th at 98%. The surprise is the 3rd highest rated team has a really tough schedule, they have to play both the #1 and #2 teams, and only a 36% chance of being at least 4th. The 6th and 7th rated teams are much higher at 76% and 69% respectively.
Similarly, lower rated teams aren't completely out of the running. The 13th rated team actually has a 5% chance of at least tying for 4th.
That is a lot of interesting but unspecific information, so lets just get to it to see who the simulation says the favorite is. That would be Southern, and the team outside the top-5 with the best shot would be Missouri Valley.
If you'd like to get more details of the simulation and each team's chances, or are interested in a flight or team report to help scout your opponents, contact me.
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