This event has the full 17 teams.
Using my ratings' top-10 averages, the actual schedules, and running things through a million iterations, the following is observed.
The range of top-10 averages is fairly large for this group, 2.92 to 3.19, but there are only two over 3.12, the top-2 teams having a gap back to the rest. Will this make them the favorites?
With the actual schedules the USTA set up, there are ways for more than 4 teams to finish undefeated, meaning a team that doesn't lose could be sent home without making the semis. The chances are very slim, just 0.34% chance of 5 teams finishing undefeated, so it is unlikely. Note that there is no way to guarantee just 4 with 17 teams.
In an ideal world, there are the 4 undefeated teams and there is no controversy, and the simulation says there is a decent chance at 9.3%.
That means though that there is an over 90% chance of having a tie for 4th place. The most likely number of teams in the tie is a whopping 5 (31%), and the chances of 6 are even 21%, so there is a good chance of a good sized tie, perhaps the largest of all the events so far. The largest number the simulation shows is "just" 11.
When there is a tie for 4th, the first tie-breaker is courts won/lost and in 15% of the cases the 4th and 5th teams will be tied on courts meaning it will go to head to head, but the teams are unlikely to have played, so it will go to the sets tie-breaker probably most of that 15% of the time. The number of teams in this tie-breaker will usually be two, but 14% of the time it will be 3 or more.
It is also interesting to see how many wins the 4th place team has most often, and 90% of the time they'll have 3 and 9.7% of the time they'll have 4, but in 31 of the million simulations, 4th place had just 2 wins!
Since the highest rated team could have the toughest schedule, they won't necessarily be the team most likely to make the semis. In this case, the top teams are strong enough that even with reasonably hard schedules, they have over a 90% chance of at least being in a tie for 4th. But the team with the best chance is actually the #6 team as they have the easiest schedule. The #8 and #9 teams also have easier schedules and could sneak in if a favorite slips up.
That is a lot of interesting but unspecific information, so lets just get to it to see who the simulation says the favorite is. That would be Midwest to make the semis, but they may not be the favorite to win it all as they could face a higher rated team there. Southwest may also surprise.
If you'd like to get more details of the simulation and each team's chances, or are interested in a flight or team report to help scout your opponents, contact me.
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