As a reminder, the simulations use the top-10 average for each team using my estimated ratings, and then account for some variation in play by each team and run through a million iterations to see what the most common result might be.
With the second weekend of Nationals, we'll look at the 18 & Over 3.5 women that is coming up this weekend in Orlando, FL. Here is the link to the earlier simulation write-up.
The most likely teams to make at least a tie for 4th place are:
- Texas - 98%
- Southern - 80%
- Mid-Atlantic - 68%
- Florida - 68%
- Intermountain - 68%
Yes, I know I'm showing five above, and that isn't because I'm predicting another team to qualify for the semis only to be DQ'd, instead it is because the teams 3 thru 5 are literally hundredths different in the simulation so it really is too close to call on which to predict will advance.
I did increase the variability a bit for these predictions for week 2 of Nationals, but the percentages are still pretty high especially for Texas. We'll see how well they predict.
In this case, the top-4 teams are all represented in the list. The teams, especially Texas, are somewhat separated from the others on top-10 average, and they have reasonable schedules so they rise to the top.
The chances of these teams advancing is very close for the top-3, so tie-breakers will come into play for the seeding in all likelihood, but if they are seeded as I list them, in the semis, Texas would be favored over any of 3 thru 5 and Southern over any of them as well but it is extremely close, and Texas the pick to win the final.
Should one of the above teams falter, Northern and Southwest are close behind and most likely to take advantage of it, with Middle States and NorCal having a shot too, and Caribbean is perennially underrated and does better than expected.
Note that ESL bumped up players are not eligible for Nationals and this significantly affected a few teams and really changed the landscape of the event. I originally did my analysis including these ineligible players and Southern was the pick to win it all, and now isn't even mentioned.
If you are on one of the teams, or any team going to Nationals, it is not too late to get more details from my simulation or a flight report to scout opponents and plan your line-ups. While the above is what the simulation says, the ratings aren't perfect between sections, players have good and bad days, not everyone will make the trip or players other than the top-10 will play, so some smart captaining can still go a long way and my reports can really help. Contact me if interested in any reports.
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