This event has the full 17 teams.
Using my ratings' top-10 averages, the actual schedules, and running things through a million iterations, the following is observed.
The range of top-10 averages is actually modest for this group, 3.78 at the low end to 3.98 at the high and the distribution is pretty consistent in that range. It is interesting no team is over 4.0. This could make for a very competitive Nationals.
With the actual schedules the USTA set up, there are ways for more than 4 teams to finish undefeated, meaning a team that doesn't lose could be sent home without making the semis. The chances are larger than for some other events, 2.7% chance of 5 teams finishing undefeated, but still pretty unlikely. But there is actually an extremely slim chance of 6 undefeated as 16 of the million simulations had this occur. Note that there is no way to guarantee just 4 with 17 teams.
In an ideal world, there are the 4 undefeated teams and there is no controversy, and the simulation says there is just a pretty good chance of this happening at 17%.
That means that there is an over 82% chance of having a tie for 4th place. The most likely number of teams in the tie is 4 (28%), but the chances of 5 or 6 is 42%, so there is a good chance of a good sized tie. The largest number the simulation shows is 12!
When there is a tie for 4th, the first tie-breaker is courts won/lost and in 17% of the cases the 4th and 5th teams will be tied on courts meaning it will go to head to head, but the teams are unlikely to have played, so it will go to the sets tie-breaker probably most of that 17% of the time. The number of teams in this tie-breaker will usually be two, but 20% of the time it will be 3 or more.
It is also interesting to see how many wins the 4th place team has most often, and 80% of the time they'll have 3, but in 235 of the million simulations, 4th place had just 2 wins!
Since the highest rated team could have the toughest schedule, they won't necessarily be the team most likely to make the semis. In this case, two of the top . teams have easier schedules and make a tie for 4th over 90% of the time, but then there are two teams with over an 80% chance, one of those being the #8 team, and the top team has just a 56% chance due to a tough schedule.
That is a lot of interesting but unspecific information, so lets just get to it to see who the simulation says the favorite is. That would be Hawaii and New England as co-favorites with Midwest perhaps a surprise team.
If you'd like to get more details of the simulation and each team's chances, or are interested in a flight or team report to help scout your opponents, contact me.
Update: I've now written a prediction of the semifinalists and winner.
No comments:
Post a Comment