Tuesday, October 11, 2011

Week 6 NFL odds oddities - Locks of the year?

Taking a look at a few early lines for NFL week 6 games, several stand out as odd, or if not odd, must bet games.  Now, I'll preface this with saying I tend to focus on the numbers and am a bit of a propeller head, and various intangibles can certainly change things.  But here are a few games to take a look at.

Cincinnati is a 7 point pick hosting Indianapolis.  The Colts have been bad this year, Cincinnati is at home and is 3-2, so 7 doesn't seem like nearly enough, the computer actually liking them by over 2 touchdowns!

Green Bay is on a roll while St. Louis is struggling so the Packers by only 14.5 at home isn't nearly enough, the computer liking them by nearly 4 touchdowns!

Another home team Oakland is favored by only 5.5 over Cleveland.  The Browns are 2-2, but against pretty weak competition (wins over the Colts and Dolphins) while Oakland is only 3-2 but against much tougher competition (loss on road to Buffalo and at home to New England) and the computer likes them by over 2 touchdowns!

And yet another home team, Washington is a pick'em game with the Eagles but the computer likes them by over a touchdown!

All of the above are teams where the home team seems to not be getting enough respect from Vegas, but there is also one road team not getting much respect and that is Buffalo, a 3 point underdog to the Giants while the computer picks them to win by a touchdown!

Is the computer off its rocker or are these picks you have to make?