Monday, February 29, 2016

Handicapping 2016 USTA League 40+ 4.5 Men's Nationals - What areas have the favorites to win it all?

USTA League play in the 40 & over division has started in many areas.  So it is time to start looking at what areas my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings say have the strongest teams.  I started with the 3.5 Men and Women, 4.0 Women and Men, and 3.0 Men and Women.

Note of course that some areas have not started their 40+ leagues yet and so without rosters to look at are not included.  And some areas have multiple seasons so some teams have multiple chances to advance in playoffs or have to make a choice.  So this is preliminary and will be updated in the coming months.

Here are the top-20 teams by top-8 average for the 40+ 4.5+ Men:

LocationAverage
TEXAS / AUSTIN4.60
NO. CALIFORNIA / Men's 4.5 - MA4.59
TEXAS / DALLAS4.58
TEXAS / FORT WORTH4.57
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - ATLANTA - 20164.57
NO. CALIFORNIA / Men's 4.5 - SA4.57
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / SAN FERNANDO VALLEY4.57
MID ATLANTIC / VIRGINIA / NOVA4.56
TEXAS / FORT WORTH4.55
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / SAN FERNANDO VALLEY4.54
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - ATLANTA - 20164.54
TEXAS / DALLAS4.54
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - ATLANTA - 20164.53
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / ORANGE COUNTY4.52
FLORIDA / REGION_8 / BROWARD4.52
MID ATLANTIC / VIRGINIA / NOVA4.52
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - ATLANTA - 20164.51
TEXAS / DALLAS4.51
TEXAS / AUSTIN4.51
TEXAS / DALLAS4.50

Being a plus league, you would expect the top teams to have averages over 4.5 and this is the case here with nearly the entire top-20 being at 4.51 or higher.

Three different areas in Texas find themselves in the top-4 and five more Texas teams are in the top-20.  Sectionals could be brutal.

As always, if you'd like to get more details on the specific teams in the list, or get a report on your area or sub-flight, I can generate a report for you showing both the full roster average and top-8 average by team.  Contact me for more details.

More to come!