Wednesday, February 3, 2016

What if Novak Djokovic were to get an Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating Report?

I am now calculating what  Estimated Dynamic NTRP rating ATP and WTA pros would have if the algorithm was used on their matches.  After seeing the top-20 lists for the men and women, the natural next question is what would an Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating Report look for a pro?

To start, here is what Novak Djokovic's would be for 2015.

Estimated Dynamic Rating: 7.07
Match Record: 83-6
Best Match Result: 7.27 on 8/31/15
Worst Match Result: 6.66 on 3/12/15
Highest Estimated Dynamic Rating: 7.12 on 6/29/15
Lowest Estimated Dynamic Rating: 6.74 on 3/12/15

In the chart, the matches at the Grand Slams have a G on the match rating and Masters tournaments have an M.  You can click on the image to see a larger version.

Novak's rating actually moved up and down a fair amount during the year.  He started the year at 7.06 coming off his win at the 2014 Tour Finals and he was still around 7.0 after winning the Aussie Open, but it dropped reached a low point after his close wins over Ramos and Isner at Indian Wells, which followed the loss to Federer in Dubai and a closer than expected Davis Cup win.

His rating went back up after winning Indian Wells and Miami, then went up to 7.07 in getting to the final of the French Open and then was still at 7.01 after winning Wimbledon.  He dropped some in playing Canada and Cincinnati, then had his highest match rating of the year in beating Cilic at the US Open.

The Fall season found him staying right around 7.0 until the semi and final at the Tour Finals got him over 7.0 again.

Clearly, an 83-6 record and 89 matches played is not similar to most USTA League players, but having some up and down matches is pretty common, especially those that play a lot of matches.  A range of 0.38 from low to high dynamic rating is more than most have, but most don't play this many matches either.

What do you think?

Attribution: Match data is courtesy Jeff Sackmann / Tennis Abstract.