Wednesday, February 3, 2016

Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings for the WTA - How much higher rated is Sharapova than you?

I wrote yesterday about how the players on the ATP tour would be rated if the USTA's NTRP algorithm were to be used to calculate dynamic ratings from their matches.  Today, it is time to take a first look at the WTA players.

All the same caveats I mentioned before apply again.  And again, I scaled things so that the top-400 players would be considered 6.5 or higher.

So here are the WTA top-20 through the end of 2015.

1Maria Sharapova6.96
2Garbine Muguruza6.89
3Serena Williams6.87
4Petra Kvitova6.82
5Simona Halep6.79
6Karolina Pliskova6.77
7Madison Keys6.74
8Karin Knapp6.70
9Caroline Garcia6.67
10Sabine Lisicki6.63
11Mirjana Lucic6.62
12Shuai Peng6.60
13Olga Govortsova6.60
14Louisa Chirico6.59
15Mona Barthel6.58
16Lesia Tsurenko6.58
17Denisa Allertova6.57
18Flavia Pennetta6.57
19Martina Hingis6.54
20Lucie Safarova6.53

Unlike the men where Djokovic was #1, Serena is not #1 but is instead #3 behind Sharapova and Muguruza.  This is because Serena had several closer than expected wins at the US Open and then the loss to Vinci, plus she didn't play the rest of the year while the others did play more and so had a chance to improve their ratings and not lose to Serena.  It will be interesting to see how this changes when I include the Australian Open.

The women are quite a bit closer grouped at the top than the men, although there is nearly a 0.5 drop from #1 to #20 which is similar to the men.

Stay tuned for more.

Attribution: Match data is courtesy Jeff Sackmann / Tennis Abstract.