Friday, February 26, 2016

Handicapping 2016 USTA League 40+ 3.0 Men's Nationals - What areas have the favorites to win it all?

USTA League play in the 40 & over division has started in many areas.  So it is time to start looking at what areas my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings say have the strongest teams.  I started with the 3.5 Men and Women, and 4.0 Women and Men, now the 3.0 Men.

Note of course that some areas have not started their 40+ leagues yet and so without rosters to look at are not included.  And some areas have multiple seasons so some teams have multiple chances to advance in playoffs or have to make a choice.  So this is preliminary and will be updated in the coming months.

Here are the top-20 teams by top-8 average for the 40+ 4.0 Men:

LocationAverage
SOUTHERN / ALABAMA / AL - HUNTSVILLE - 20163.10
PACIFIC NW / SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON3.09
MIDWEST / OHIO VALLEY / CHARLESTON3.02
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - COLUMBUS - CORTA - 20163.01
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - COLUMBUS - CORTA - 20163.00
SOUTHERN / KENTUCKY / KY - LEXINGTON2.98
NO. CALIFORNIA / Men's 3.0 - EB2.98
TEXAS / DALLAS2.98
NO. CALIFORNIA / Men's 3.0 - DN2.96
PACIFIC NW / NORTHWEST WASHINGTON2.96
NO. CALIFORNIA / Men's 3.0 - SF2.96
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / SAN GABRIEL VALLEY2.96
SOUTHERN / ALABAMA / AL - BIRMINGHAM - 20162.95
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - COLUMBUS - CORTA - 20162.95
SOUTHERN / ALABAMA / AL - HUNTSVILLE - 20162.95
SOUTHWEST / NORTHERN NEW MEXICO2.95
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / SAN GABRIEL VALLEY2.95
PACIFIC NW / SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON2.95
NO. CALIFORNIA / Men's 3.0 - SB2.95
PACIFIC NW / NORTHWEST WASHINGTON2.95

It is not uncommon to see more players rated above the top of their level in the lower NTRP levels, and the result here is 4 teams with top-8 averages over 3.0.

Southern is represented well but PNW and both NorCal and SoCal show up several times too.

As always, if you'd like to get more details on the specific teams in the list, or get a report on your area or sub-flight, I can generate a report for you showing both the full roster average and top-8 average by team.  Contact me for more details.

More to come!