Saturday, February 20, 2016

Handicapping 2016 USTA League 40+ 3.5 Men's Nationals - What areas have the favorites to win it all?

USTA League play in the 40 & over division has started in many areas.  So it is time to start looking at what areas my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings say have the strongest teams.  We'll start with the 3.5 Men.

Note of course that some areas have not started their 40+ leagues yet and so without rosters to look at are not included.  So this is preliminary and will be updated in the coming months.

Here are the top-20 teams by top-8 average for the 40+ 3.5 Men:

LocationAverage
TEXAS / AUSTIN3.57
TEXAS / DALLAS3.53
TEXAS / DALLAS3.53
NEW ENGLAND / SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT / Southern CT3.52
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - COLUMBUS - CORTA - 20163.51
TEXAS / FORT WORTH3.51
SOUTHWEST / NORTHERN NEW MEXICO3.51
NO. CALIFORNIA / Men's 3.5 - LP3.50
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - ATLANTA - 20163.50
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / ORANGE COUNTY3.50
MID ATLANTIC / VIRGINIA / NOVA3.50
SOUTHERN / ALABAMA / AL - BIRMINGHAM - 20163.50
NEW ENGLAND / SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT / Southern CT3.50
NO. CALIFORNIA / Men's 3.5 - MA - 13.49
MID ATLANTIC / MARYLAND / MONTGOMERY COUNTY3.49
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - COLUMBUS - CORTA - 20163.49
NO. CALIFORNIA / Men's 3.5 - EB3.49
SOUTHWEST / NORTHERN NEW MEXICO3.49
NO. CALIFORNIA / Men's 3.5 - LP3.48
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / INLAND EMPIRE3.48

Yes, there are 3.5 teams with top-8 averages over 3.5.  This happens where a team of strong 3.5s plays well and improves their ratings as a result of their play.  This sometimes happens due to players really being 4.0s and having tanked matches to get to 3.5, but it happens naturally where players simply are improving too so does not mean these teams have sandbagging or cheating players on their rosters.

Southern states are well represented here as leagues have started there earlier than other areas, but some cold weather states that play indoors show up too.

Texas holding the top three spots and Dallas with two teams at 3.53 leads the way and it will be a dog-fight to just win the local area.  But the rest of the teams nationally are close, #20 only being back at 3.48.

Naturally these ratings can change throughout the season, and self-rated players that get ratings can influence things or players that are DQ'd and not eligible could inflate ratings too.  I try to exclude ineligible players from the stats but that is sometimes difficult to determine.

As always, if you'd like to get more details on the specific teams in the list, or get a report on your area or sub-flight, I can generate a report for you showing both the full roster average and top-8 average by team.  Contact me for more details.

More to come!