Handicapping 2016 USTA League 40+ 4.0 Men's Nationals - What areas have the favorites to win it all?

USTA League play in the 40 & over division has started in many areas.  So it is time to start looking at what areas my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings say have the strongest teams.  I started with the 3.5 Men and Women, and 4.0 Women, now the 4.0 Men.

Note of course that some areas have not started their 40+ leagues yet and so without rosters to look at are not included.  And some areas have multiple seasons so some teams have multiple chances to advance in playoffs or have to make a choice.  So this is preliminary and will be updated in the coming months.

Here are the top-20 teams by top-8 average for the 40+ 4.0 Men:

Location	Average
NORTHERN / NORTHERN / TWIN CITIES - 2016	4.04
TEXAS / DALLAS	4.01
NORTHERN / NORTHERN / TWIN CITIES - 2016	4.00
NO. CALIFORNIA / Men's 4.0 - SF	4.00
SOUTHWEST / NORTHERN NEW MEXICO	4.00
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / ORANGE COUNTY	3.99
MISSOURI VALLEY / OKLAHOMA / OKLAHOMA CITY	3.99
FLORIDA / REGION_8 / SOUTH MIAMI/DADE	3.98
SOUTHERN / ALABAMA / AL - MOBILE 2016	3.98
MID ATLANTIC / VIRGINIA / NOVA	3.98
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / VENTURA COUNTY	3.98
NO. CALIFORNIA / Men's 4.0 - DS - 2	3.97
MISSOURI VALLEY / IOWA	3.97
NO. CALIFORNIA / Men's 4.0 - SB - 2	3.97
FLORIDA / REGION_8 / BROWARD	3.97
NO. CALIFORNIA / Men's 4.0 - SB - 1	3.97
NO. CALIFORNIA / Men's 4.0 - DS - 2	3.97
NEW ENGLAND / SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT / Southern CT	3.96
EASTERN / METROPOLITAN REGION / Manhattan	3.96
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / SAN FERNANDO VALLEY	3.96

Just two teams have top-8 averages higher than the top of the range for the level, but this group is deep with #20 coming in at 3.96.  It appears there are a lot of strong 4.0 teams this year.

And Northern has two of the top three teams, specifically Mineapolis/St. Paul.  But this may be essentially the same team in different seasons.  After that, it is a mix of teams from a cross section of areas.

As always, if you'd like to get more details on the specific teams in the list, or get a report on your area or sub-flight, I can generate a report for you showing both the full roster average and top-8 average by team.  Contact me for more details.

More to come!