Wednesday, March 2, 2016

Handicapping 2016 USTA League 40+ 4.5 Women's Nationals - What areas have the favorites to win it all?

USTA League play in the 40 & over division has started in many areas.  So it is time to start looking at what areas my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings say have the strongest teams.  I started with the 3.5 Men and Women, 4.0 Women and Men3.0 Men and Women, and 4.5 Men.

Note of course that some areas have not started their 40+ leagues yet and so without rosters to look at are not included.  And some areas have multiple seasons so some teams have multiple chances to advance in playoffs or have to make a choice.  So this is preliminary and will be updated in the coming months.

Here are the top-20 teams by top-8 average for the 40+ 4.5+ Women:

LocationAverage
FLORIDA / REGION_4 / ORANGE/SEMINOLE4.58
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - ATLANTA - 20164.54
SOUTHERN / NORTH CAROLINA / NC - METRO (Chl)4.51
FLORIDA / REGION_2 / DUVAL4.49
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / SAN FERNANDO VALLEY4.46
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / ORANGE COUNTY4.46
NO. CALIFORNIA / Women's 4.5 - SA4.44
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - ATLANTA - 20164.44
FLORIDA / REGION_6 / NORTH PALM BEACH4.44
NEW ENGLAND / SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT / Southern CT4.43
SOUTHERN / ALABAMA / AL - BIRMINGHAM - 20164.43
NO. CALIFORNIA / Women's 4.5 - DN4.43
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / SAN FERNANDO VALLEY4.43
NO. CALIFORNIA / Women's 4.5 - LP4.42
TEXAS / DALLAS4.42
NO. CALIFORNIA / Women's 4.5 - SA4.41
PACIFIC NW / NORTHWEST WASHINGTON4.41
FLORIDA / REGION_6 / NORTH PALM BEACH4.41
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - ATLANTA - 20164.41
SOUTHERN / NORTH CAROLINA / NC - METRO (Chl)4.41

Once again, we see a few times above the top of the range, but unlike the 4.5+ Men, just three teams are.

This is one of the genders/levels that has the most even distribution with Florida having several teams but from different regions, Southern also but from different states, the California's represented well, and even a few other sections like New England, Texas, and PNW thrown in.

As always, if you'd like to get more details on the specific teams in the list, or get a report on your area or sub-flight, I can generate a report for you showing both the full roster average and top-8 average by team.  Contact me for more details.

More to come!