Sunday, February 21, 2016

Handicapping 2016 USTA League 40+ 4.0 Women's Nationals - What areas have the favorites to win it all?

USTA League play in the 40 & over division has started in many areas.  So it is time to start looking at what areas my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings say have the strongest teams.  I started with the 3.5 Men and Women, now the 4.0 Women.

Note of course that some areas have not started their 40+ leagues yet and so without rosters to look at are not included.  So this is preliminary and will be updated in the coming months.

Here are the top-20 teams by top-8 average for the 40+ 4.0 Women:

LocationAverage
NO. CALIFORNIA / Women's 4.0 - LP - 14.02
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - ATLANTA - 20164.01
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / BEACH CITIES3.98
NO. CALIFORNIA / Women's 4.0 - MP - 23.97
MISSOURI VALLEY / IOWA3.96
FLORIDA / REGION_8 / BROWARD3.96
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / LOS ANGELES3.96
EASTERN / METROPOLITAN REGION / Manhattan3.95
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / SAN FERNANDO VALLEY3.95
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / ORANGE COUNTY3.95
NO. CALIFORNIA / Women's 4.0 - SB - 23.94
SOUTHERN / LOUISIANA / LA - NEW ORLEANS3.94
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / ORANGE COUNTY3.93
SO. CALIFORNIA / SO.CALIFORNIA / ORANGE COUNTY3.93
NEW ENGLAND / SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT / Southern CT3.93
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - ATLANTA - 20163.92
SOUTHWEST / CENTRAL ARIZONA3.92
SOUTHERN / GEORGIA / GA - ATLANTA - 20163.92
MID ATLANTIC / MARYLAND / MONTGOMERY COUNTY3.92
TEXAS / DALLAS3.92

As we've seen at the 3.5 level, there are once again a few teams with top-8 averages higher than the top of the range for the level, although the NorCal and Georgia teams are just barely over.  And the #20 team is very strong still with a 3.92 top-8 average.

But Southern Cal dominates this list with a full 30% of the top-20.  NorCal has 3 teams and Southern as 4 with 3 of those from Georgia and specifically Atlanta.  The road to Southern Sectionals could be tough.

As always, if you'd like to get more details on the specific teams in the list, or get a report on your area or sub-flight, I can generate a report for you showing both the full roster average and top-8 average by team.  Contact me for more details.

More to come!