Monday, October 15, 2012

NFL Week 6 "What If" Ratings, Rankings, and Projected Records

Below you will find my computer's ratings, rankings, and projections calculated using the week 3 Green Bay at Seattle game as a 12-7 win by Green Bay.  This is being done to see how things would be different if the officials had made the right call.

For the ratings and rankings, the change column is the difference from the actual week 6 ratings.  You'll see that Green Bay would jump up to #3 while Seattle would fall 1 spot to #9.  A few other teams like the Giants would also be impacted.

RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
1Chicago90.3564-182.034+0, +0.359
2Houston88.3545-180.968+0, +0.339
3Green Bay88.0674-283.707+3, +1.568
4New England87.0133-382.510-1, -0.346
5Atlanta86.7016-078.091-1, -0.083
6San Francisco86.6224-283.015+1, +0.276
7NY Giants86.5804-280.318-2, -0.152
8Denver84.8163-382.245+1, +0.004
9Seattle84.4093-383.676-1, -1.391
10Baltimore83.9715-178.217+0, -0.170
11St Louis83.8583-383.620-1, -0.283
12Minnesota83.3784-279.135+1, +0.162
13Arizona83.1714-281.571-1, -0.370
14Dallas82.2142-385.699+0, -0.336
15Washington82.1603-381.499+0, -0.059
16Miami82.1453-381.721+0, -0.035
17NY Jets81.4173-381.065+0, +0.208
18Tampa Bay80.1792-379.407+0, -0.222
19Cincinnati79.5673-380.464+0, -0.018
20Detroit79.4772-381.841+0, +0.005
21Buffalo79.1743-381.983+0, -0.074
22Pittsburgh78.9122-379.108+1, +0.003
23Philadelphia78.8293-381.407-1, -0.124
24San Diego78.5283-377.609+0, -0.040
25Carolina77.7361-482.036+0, -0.406
26Indianapolis77.1852-383.213+0, +0.515
27Cleveland76.3311-581.281+0, -0.080
28Jacksonville75.8451-483.168+0, +0.279
29New Orleans75.3131-478.968+0, -0.010
30Oakland73.9611-482.820+0, -0.010
31Tennessee73.5192-482.610+0, +0.034
32Kansas City71.3471-580.644+0, -0.077

But more interesting is how the playoff projections change.  Green Bay would go from being 9-7 and having to win a tie-breaker to get the last wildcard spot to 11-5 and just one game behind Chicago for the division.  Seattle would go from being tied for the division at 10-6 to being tied for the last wildcard at 9-7.

TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
Atlanta13-326.726.717.2
Houston12-428.726.019.2
Chicago12-427.223.020.7
Baltimore11-526.520.622.2
Green Bay11-528.119.924.1
Denver11-531.119.826.1
NY Giants10-625.924.717.8
New England10-626.719.323.6
San Francisco10-625.018.522.8
Seattle9-725.116.824.5
Washington9-725.116.824.5
Minnesota8-826.924.818.1
Miami8-826.324.318.3
Dallas8-824.624.216.8
Arizona8-826.123.419.0
Cincinnati8-825.321.620.1
St Louis8-825.320.121.6
San Diego8-826.119.922.6
NY Jets8-825.218.922.7
Buffalo7-924.924.516.6
Tampa Bay7-925.623.418.5
Pittsburgh7-925.623.018.9
Philadelphia7-926.720.622.4
Indianapolis7-925.317.823.8
Carolina5-1124.224.016.4
Detroit5-1127.623.819.7
Oakland5-1125.023.318.0
Jacksonville5-1125.322.419.3
Tennessee5-1128.119.225.5
Cleveland5-1127.519.224.7
New Orleans4-1227.921.622.6
Kansas City4-1227.717.726.9

I'll continue to calculate these each week so we can see how things would be different.