NFL Week 6 "What If" Ratings, Rankings, and Projected Records

Below you will find my computer's ratings, rankings, and projections calculated using the week 3 Green Bay at Seattle game as a 12-7 win by Green Bay.  This is being done to see how things would be different if the officials had made the right call.

For the ratings and rankings, the change column is the difference from the actual week 6 ratings.  You'll see that Green Bay would jump up to #3 while Seattle would fall 1 spot to #9.  A few other teams like the Giants would also be impacted.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Chicago	90.356	4-1	82.034	+0, +0.359
2	Houston	88.354	5-1	80.968	+0, +0.339
3	Green Bay	88.067	4-2	83.707	+3, +1.568
4	New England	87.013	3-3	82.510	-1, -0.346
5	Atlanta	86.701	6-0	78.091	-1, -0.083
6	San Francisco	86.622	4-2	83.015	+1, +0.276
7	NY Giants	86.580	4-2	80.318	-2, -0.152
8	Denver	84.816	3-3	82.245	+1, +0.004
9	Seattle	84.409	3-3	83.676	-1, -1.391
10	Baltimore	83.971	5-1	78.217	+0, -0.170
11	St Louis	83.858	3-3	83.620	-1, -0.283
12	Minnesota	83.378	4-2	79.135	+1, +0.162
13	Arizona	83.171	4-2	81.571	-1, -0.370
14	Dallas	82.214	2-3	85.699	+0, -0.336
15	Washington	82.160	3-3	81.499	+0, -0.059
16	Miami	82.145	3-3	81.721	+0, -0.035
17	NY Jets	81.417	3-3	81.065	+0, +0.208
18	Tampa Bay	80.179	2-3	79.407	+0, -0.222
19	Cincinnati	79.567	3-3	80.464	+0, -0.018
20	Detroit	79.477	2-3	81.841	+0, +0.005
21	Buffalo	79.174	3-3	81.983	+0, -0.074
22	Pittsburgh	78.912	2-3	79.108	+1, +0.003
23	Philadelphia	78.829	3-3	81.407	-1, -0.124
24	San Diego	78.528	3-3	77.609	+0, -0.040
25	Carolina	77.736	1-4	82.036	+0, -0.406
26	Indianapolis	77.185	2-3	83.213	+0, +0.515
27	Cleveland	76.331	1-5	81.281	+0, -0.080
28	Jacksonville	75.845	1-4	83.168	+0, +0.279
29	New Orleans	75.313	1-4	78.968	+0, -0.010
30	Oakland	73.961	1-4	82.820	+0, -0.010
31	Tennessee	73.519	2-4	82.610	+0, +0.034
32	Kansas City	71.347	1-5	80.644	+0, -0.077

But more interesting is how the playoff projections change.  Green Bay would go from being 9-7 and having to win a tie-breaker to get the last wildcard spot to 11-5 and just one game behind Chicago for the division.  Seattle would go from being tied for the division at 10-6 to being tied for the last wildcard at 9-7.

Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Atlanta	13-3	26.7	26.7	17.2
Houston	12-4	28.7	26.0	19.2
Chicago	12-4	27.2	23.0	20.7
Baltimore	11-5	26.5	20.6	22.2
Green Bay	11-5	28.1	19.9	24.1
Denver	11-5	31.1	19.8	26.1
NY Giants	10-6	25.9	24.7	17.8
New England	10-6	26.7	19.3	23.6
San Francisco	10-6	25.0	18.5	22.8
Seattle	9-7	25.1	16.8	24.5
Washington	9-7	25.1	16.8	24.5
Minnesota	8-8	26.9	24.8	18.1
Miami	8-8	26.3	24.3	18.3
Dallas	8-8	24.6	24.2	16.8
Arizona	8-8	26.1	23.4	19.0
Cincinnati	8-8	25.3	21.6	20.1
St Louis	8-8	25.3	20.1	21.6
San Diego	8-8	26.1	19.9	22.6
NY Jets	8-8	25.2	18.9	22.7
Buffalo	7-9	24.9	24.5	16.6
Tampa Bay	7-9	25.6	23.4	18.5
Pittsburgh	7-9	25.6	23.0	18.9
Philadelphia	7-9	26.7	20.6	22.4
Indianapolis	7-9	25.3	17.8	23.8
Carolina	5-11	24.2	24.0	16.4
Detroit	5-11	27.6	23.8	19.7
Oakland	5-11	25.0	23.3	18.0
Jacksonville	5-11	25.3	22.4	19.3
Tennessee	5-11	28.1	19.2	25.5
Cleveland	5-11	27.5	19.2	24.7
New Orleans	4-12	27.9	21.6	22.6
Kansas City	4-12	27.7	17.7	26.9

I'll continue to calculate these each week so we can see how things would be different.