Sunday, October 28, 2012

College Football Week 9 Season Projections - 4 undefeateds

The projected records for the regular season using results through week 9 are now available.  These projections now include projected conference championship games.

With the upsets and big wins by some teams yesterday, there are now 4 teams projected to finish the season undefeated.

Kansas State tops the list primarily because they've played their toughest games, and don't have a 13th game to play in the conference title game.  The Big-12 is the strongest conference though and they still host Oklahoma State and Texas.

Oregon is next primarily because their remaining schedule took a hit with USC and Oregon State both losing.  It is becoming increasingly possible, although perhaps not likely, that they could finish the season undefeated but lose out to K-State or Notre Dame in the BCS due to the computers.

And Alabama is now just just under a 65% chance, their big challenge being at LSU and then perhaps the toughest title game opponent in Georgia.

Notre Dame now has a better than 60% chance of finishing undefeated, their primary challenge being at USC in their final game.

The teams with one or fewer losses below, full list on the site.

TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
Kansas St12-079.20.019.0
Oregon13-071.90.025.1
Alabama13-064.70.030.5
Notre Dame12-061.50.037.9
Ohio State12-145.631.020.6
Louisville11-149.413.535.3
Boise St11-178.40.020.7
Florida11-157.00.041.6
Northern Illinois12-150.40.041.6