Monday, October 1, 2012

NFL Week 4 "What If" Ratings, Rankings, and Projections

Below you will find my computer's ratings, rankings, and projections calculated using the week 3 Green Bay at Seattle game as a 12-7 win by Green Bay.

For the ratings and rankings, the change column is the difference from the actual week 3 ratings.  You'll see that the teams would basically swap positions 4 and 8, but a few other teams move slightly as well.

RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
1Houston94.4194-080.812+0, +0.019
2Atlanta90.4174-079.622+1, +0.005
3Arizona90.2514-082.601-1, -0.492
4New England88.7252-284.404+0, -0.149
5San Francisco88.2713-183.746+2, +0.665
6Baltimore87.9573-180.701-1, -0.094
7Denver87.8612-284.014-1, +0.015
8Chicago86.5443-179.991+0, +0.533
9Green Bay86.0413-180.811+2, +2.170
10San Diego83.9903-178.151+0, +0.010
11Minnesota83.8003-179.858+1, +0.243
12Seattle83.5831-383.751-3, -1.973
13Cincinnati83.4133-181.460+0, -0.017
14Miami82.4611-385.242+0, -0.020
15Pittsburgh82.2621-282.387+0, +0.050
16Philadelphia81.6383-183.475+0, -0.179
17NY Jets81.3402-282.905+0, +0.121
18NY Giants80.6612-277.784+0, -0.207
19Dallas79.4242-281.667+0, -0.460
20St Louis79.2872-281.660+0, -0.292
21Washington78.7102-278.857+0, -0.081
22Buffalo78.6252-279.384+0, +0.006
23Jacksonville78.1451-384.211+0, +0.093
24Detroit77.8031-381.535+0, +0.088
25Tampa Bay75.8811-378.247+0, -0.184
26Indianapolis75.2121-281.829+1, +0.211
27Cleveland75.0300-482.908-1, -0.067
28Oakland74.9591-384.143+0, -0.001
29Tennessee74.7831-386.234+0, +0.001
30Carolina74.1931-379.452+0, -0.106
31Kansas City72.4431-380.970+0, +0.004
32New Orleans70.8470-477.847+0, +0.078

And in the projected records, Green Bay would go from being 9-7 and tied with Minnesota for the last spot to being 11-5 and tied with Chicago for the division, and since they currently have the tie-breaker would be projected to win it.  Seattle would fall from 9-7 and tied for the last wildcard spot to 7-9 and out of the playoff hunt.

TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
Houston15-140.124.125.9
Atlanta14-230.927.619.9
Arizona13-326.617.724.9
Denver11-530.724.321.9
Baltimore11-526.222.919.8
Chicago11-525.516.924.6
Green Bay11-525.016.124.9
Philadelphia11-524.716.324.5
San Francisco11-524.719.221.8
San Diego11-524.116.423.7
New England10-624.824.217.4
Cincinnati10-623.720.419.5
Minnesota9-726.224.517.9
Pittsburgh9-723.718.021.9
Dallas8-824.818.722.4
Miami8-824.417.323.3
NY Giants8-824.419.021.7
Buffalo7-924.917.324.0
Washington7-924.617.623.3
Seattle7-923.821.418.7
NY Jets7-923.022.216.9
Oakland6-1026.119.822.5
Jacksonville6-1025.820.821.3
Tampa Bay5-1129.827.118.1
Indianapolis5-1126.520.422.4
St Louis5-1125.724.317.4
Carolina5-1125.220.521.1
Kansas City4-1228.818.926.3
Tennessee4-1226.623.818.9
Cleveland4-1225.517.724.5
Detroit3-1331.828.317.3
New Orleans2-1430.823.722.4

I'll continue to calculate these each week so we can see how things would be different.