NFL Week 4 "What If" Ratings, Rankings, and Projections

Below you will find my computer's ratings, rankings, and projections calculated using the week 3 Green Bay at Seattle game as a 12-7 win by Green Bay.

For the ratings and rankings, the change column is the difference from the actual week 3 ratings.  You'll see that the teams would basically swap positions 4 and 8, but a few other teams move slightly as well.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Houston	94.419	4-0	80.812	+0, +0.019
2	Atlanta	90.417	4-0	79.622	+1, +0.005
3	Arizona	90.251	4-0	82.601	-1, -0.492
4	New England	88.725	2-2	84.404	+0, -0.149
5	San Francisco	88.271	3-1	83.746	+2, +0.665
6	Baltimore	87.957	3-1	80.701	-1, -0.094
7	Denver	87.861	2-2	84.014	-1, +0.015
8	Chicago	86.544	3-1	79.991	+0, +0.533
9	Green Bay	86.041	3-1	80.811	+2, +2.170
10	San Diego	83.990	3-1	78.151	+0, +0.010
11	Minnesota	83.800	3-1	79.858	+1, +0.243
12	Seattle	83.583	1-3	83.751	-3, -1.973
13	Cincinnati	83.413	3-1	81.460	+0, -0.017
14	Miami	82.461	1-3	85.242	+0, -0.020
15	Pittsburgh	82.262	1-2	82.387	+0, +0.050
16	Philadelphia	81.638	3-1	83.475	+0, -0.179
17	NY Jets	81.340	2-2	82.905	+0, +0.121
18	NY Giants	80.661	2-2	77.784	+0, -0.207
19	Dallas	79.424	2-2	81.667	+0, -0.460
20	St Louis	79.287	2-2	81.660	+0, -0.292
21	Washington	78.710	2-2	78.857	+0, -0.081
22	Buffalo	78.625	2-2	79.384	+0, +0.006
23	Jacksonville	78.145	1-3	84.211	+0, +0.093
24	Detroit	77.803	1-3	81.535	+0, +0.088
25	Tampa Bay	75.881	1-3	78.247	+0, -0.184
26	Indianapolis	75.212	1-2	81.829	+1, +0.211
27	Cleveland	75.030	0-4	82.908	-1, -0.067
28	Oakland	74.959	1-3	84.143	+0, -0.001
29	Tennessee	74.783	1-3	86.234	+0, +0.001
30	Carolina	74.193	1-3	79.452	+0, -0.106
31	Kansas City	72.443	1-3	80.970	+0, +0.004
32	New Orleans	70.847	0-4	77.847	+0, +0.078

And in the projected records, Green Bay would go from being 9-7 and tied with Minnesota for the last spot to being 11-5 and tied with Chicago for the division, and since they currently have the tie-breaker would be projected to win it.  Seattle would fall from 9-7 and tied for the last wildcard spot to 7-9 and out of the playoff hunt.

Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Houston	15-1	40.1	24.1	25.9
Atlanta	14-2	30.9	27.6	19.9
Arizona	13-3	26.6	17.7	24.9
Denver	11-5	30.7	24.3	21.9
Baltimore	11-5	26.2	22.9	19.8
Chicago	11-5	25.5	16.9	24.6
Green Bay	11-5	25.0	16.1	24.9
Philadelphia	11-5	24.7	16.3	24.5
San Francisco	11-5	24.7	19.2	21.8
San Diego	11-5	24.1	16.4	23.7
New England	10-6	24.8	24.2	17.4
Cincinnati	10-6	23.7	20.4	19.5
Minnesota	9-7	26.2	24.5	17.9
Pittsburgh	9-7	23.7	18.0	21.9
Dallas	8-8	24.8	18.7	22.4
Miami	8-8	24.4	17.3	23.3
NY Giants	8-8	24.4	19.0	21.7
Buffalo	7-9	24.9	17.3	24.0
Washington	7-9	24.6	17.6	23.3
Seattle	7-9	23.8	21.4	18.7
NY Jets	7-9	23.0	22.2	16.9
Oakland	6-10	26.1	19.8	22.5
Jacksonville	6-10	25.8	20.8	21.3
Tampa Bay	5-11	29.8	27.1	18.1
Indianapolis	5-11	26.5	20.4	22.4
St Louis	5-11	25.7	24.3	17.4
Carolina	5-11	25.2	20.5	21.1
Kansas City	4-12	28.8	18.9	26.3
Tennessee	4-12	26.6	23.8	18.9
Cleveland	4-12	25.5	17.7	24.5
Detroit	3-13	31.8	28.3	17.3
New Orleans	2-14	30.8	23.7	22.4

I'll continue to calculate these each week so we can see how things would be different.