NFL Week 8 Ratings and Rankings - Houston stays #1

The ratings after week 8 are now posted and listed below as well.

Houston is stays #1 and Atlanta moves up to #2.  Miami makes the big move up 8 spots to #9 and is now projected to make the playoffs.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Houston	89.751	6-1	81.005	+0, +0.017
2	Atlanta	87.957	7-0	79.288	+3, +0.974
3	San Francisco	87.228	6-2	82.004	+1, +0.176
4	Chicago	87.205	6-1	79.667	-2, -2.106
5	NY Giants	87.036	6-2	80.692	+2, +0.985
6	New England	87.007	5-3	81.348	+0, +0.837
7	Denver	86.991	4-3	82.680	+1, +1.487
8	Green Bay	86.782	5-3	82.276	-5, -1.415
9	Miami	83.654	4-3	81.361	+8, +1.915
10	Seattle	83.453	4-4	83.527	-1, -1.312
11	Pittsburgh	82.641	4-3	79.879	+7, +1.731
12	Baltimore	81.949	5-2	79.695	+4, +0.151
13	Dallas	81.922	3-4	84.244	+0, -0.284
14	Tampa Bay	81.010	3-4	79.295	+8, +2.977
15	Minnesota	80.940	5-3	78.780	-5, -3.304
16	Washington	80.829	3-5	82.693	-4, -1.463
17	NY Jets	80.744	3-5	82.769	-3, -1.409
18	St Louis	80.202	3-5	82.874	-7, -2.397
19	Detroit	80.122	3-4	82.066	+0, -0.500
20	Arizona	79.937	4-4	81.432	-5, -1.981
21	San Diego	79.521	3-4	79.078	-1, -0.006
22	Carolina	79.019	1-6	83.333	+4, +1.698
23	Cincinnati	78.012	3-4	79.829	+2, +0.670
24	Philadelphia	77.950	3-4	81.757	-3, -0.478
25	New Orleans	77.750	2-5	81.103	-2, -0.088
26	Indianapolis	77.196	4-3	79.748	+1, +0.142
27	Oakland	77.136	3-4	81.394	+2, +2.167
28	Buffalo	77.019	3-4	79.804	-4, -0.537
29	Cleveland	75.654	2-6	79.587	+2, +0.712
30	Jacksonville	75.425	1-6	82.860	+0, +0.472
31	Tennessee	74.489	3-5	81.775	-3, -1.371
32	Kansas City	70.571	1-6	79.906	+0, -0.476

Analyzing the 10/28/12 AP Poll - LSU ahead of Notre Dame on 2 ballots

Here is week 9 of analyzing the AP poll.  Thanks as always to the AP publishing their voting.

All 9 charts are displayed below to make it easy to see the changes.

The top-4 are even clearer now with Notre Dame replacing Florida, although it is interesting that there isn't perfect consensus.  LSU is getting two 4th place votes ahead of Notre Dame in each case.  Who is doing this?  Voters from Arkansas and Alabama, no big surprise.

Ohio State has convinced some voters with their range now being just 5th to 11th now where they were 6th to 21st last week.  South Carolina and Stanford are now the teams the voters are having the most trouble with.

College Football Week 9 Season Projections - 4 undefeateds

The projected records for the regular season using results through week 9 are now available.  These projections now include projected conference championship games.

With the upsets and big wins by some teams yesterday, there are now 4 teams projected to finish the season undefeated.

Kansas State tops the list primarily because they've played their toughest games, and don't have a 13th game to play in the conference title game.  The Big-12 is the strongest conference though and they still host Oklahoma State and Texas.

Oregon is next primarily because their remaining schedule took a hit with USC and Oregon State both losing.  It is becoming increasingly possible, although perhaps not likely, that they could finish the season undefeated but lose out to K-State or Notre Dame in the BCS due to the computers.

And Alabama is now just just under a 65% chance, their big challenge being at LSU and then perhaps the toughest title game opponent in Georgia.

Notre Dame now has a better than 60% chance of finishing undefeated, their primary challenge being at USC in their final game.

The teams with one or fewer losses below, full list on the site.

Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Kansas St	12-0	79.2	0.0	19.0
Oregon	13-0	71.9	0.0	25.1
Alabama	13-0	64.7	0.0	30.5
Notre Dame	12-0	61.5	0.0	37.9
Ohio State	12-1	45.6	31.0	20.6
Louisville	11-1	49.4	13.5	35.3
Boise St	11-1	78.4	0.0	20.7
Florida	11-1	57.0	0.0	41.6
Northern Illinois	12-1	50.4	0.0	41.6

College Football Week 9 Ratings and Rankings - The top-4 emerge

This week's ratings and rankings are now posted.

And K-state is #1 for the 4th week in a row with a new #2 in Alabama close behind.  Oregon stays at #3, jumped by Alabama, but is just over 0.2 behind so a dead heat.  After the top-3, things drop off a bit but a new #4 in Notre Dame up 9 spots is right there.  The computer finally was impressed at Notre dame went on the road and won against a quality opponent by a good score.

The Big-12 as a whole dropped due to OU losing to Notre Dame, not always a lot of ranking spots but in the ratings as every team other than Oklahoma State and Kansas lost ratings points.  They are still the strongest conference as just one game doesn't override all the other good work they've done out of conference.

You can see the BCS compatible algorithm ratings and rankings as well where K-State is #1 and here they are followed very closely by Notre Dame at #2.  Interesting, Florida drops ratings points but only falls 1 spot to #3 ahead of Alabama.  This is based largely on strength of schedule and that will change somewhat after Bama goes to LSU next weekend.

The top-25 is below, full ratings on the site.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Kansas St	97.012	8-0	72.910	+0, -3.972
2	Alabama	96.797	8-0	73.106	+2, +1.161
3	Oregon	96.584	8-0	67.376	+0, -0.574
4	Notre Dame	90.083	8-0	76.169	+9, +6.827
5	Oklahoma	89.887	5-2	73.393	-3,-10.748
6	Florida	88.678	7-1	77.255	-1, -3.381
7	Texas Tech	85.383	6-2	75.558	-1, -5.346
8	Oregon St	84.718	6-1	76.672	+3, +0.255
9	LSU	84.642	7-1	70.195	-2, -1.102
10	Southern Cal	84.588	6-2	71.842	+4, +1.759
11	South Carolina	84.323	7-2	73.991	-3, -0.563
12	Arizona	84.294	5-3	76.159	+0, +0.999
13	Texas A&M	83.868	6-2	71.899	-3, -0.652
14	Georgia	83.730	7-1	71.986	+10, +4.352
15	Florida St	83.099	8-1	61.029	+2, +1.646
16	Stanford	82.979	6-2	76.318	-1, +0.749
17	Oklahoma St	82.470	5-2	67.027	+1, +1.105
18	Ohio State	81.885	9-0	68.810	+11, +4.113
19	Texas	81.042	6-2	74.734	-10, -3.549
20	Utah St	80.952	7-2	66.834	+5, +1.620
21	Mississippi St	80.467	7-1	65.386	+0, -0.286
22	Iowa St	80.429	5-3	75.543	-2, -0.667
23	Arizona St	80.163	5-3	71.463	-4, -0.939
24	Clemson	79.218	7-1	65.877	+6, +1.978
25	Brigham Young	79.126	5-4	71.274	+9, +3.026

NFL Week 7 Ratings and Rankings - Houston back to #1

The ratings after week 7 are now posted and listed below as well.

Houston is back to #1 after they thumped Baltimore.  Other moves are Green Bay and San Francisco moving up at the expense of the Giants and Patriots.  Atlanta isn't getting much love due to having the easiest schedule thus far.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Houston	89.734	6-1	81.029	+1, +1.719
2	Chicago	89.311	5-1	80.939	-1, -0.686
3	Green Bay	88.197	4-3	84.479	+3, +1.698
4	San Francisco	87.052	5-2	82.941	+3, +0.706
5	Atlanta	86.983	6-0	78.443	-1, +0.199
6	New England	86.170	4-3	81.793	-3, -1.189
7	NY Giants	86.051	5-2	79.611	-2, -0.681
8	Denver	85.504	3-3	83.049	+1, +0.692
9	Seattle	84.765	4-3	84.066	-1, -1.035
10	Minnesota	84.244	5-2	79.536	+3, +1.028
11	St Louis	82.599	3-4	83.692	-1, -1.542
12	Washington	82.292	3-4	82.299	+3, +0.073
13	Dallas	82.206	3-3	83.880	+1, -0.344
14	NY Jets	82.153	3-4	82.459	+3, +0.944
15	Arizona	81.918	4-3	81.786	-3, -1.623
16	Baltimore	81.798	5-2	79.553	-6, -2.343
17	Miami	81.739	3-3	81.452	-1, -0.441
18	Pittsburgh	80.910	3-3	80.043	+5, +2.001
19	Detroit	80.622	2-4	83.916	+1, +1.150
20	San Diego	79.527	3-3	78.700	+4, +0.959
21	Philadelphia	78.428	3-3	81.040	+1, -0.525
22	Tampa Bay	78.033	2-4	78.459	-4, -2.368
23	New Orleans	77.838	2-4	79.403	+6, +2.515
24	Buffalo	77.556	3-4	80.306	-3, -1.692
25	Cincinnati	77.342	3-4	79.225	-6, -2.243
26	Carolina	77.321	1-5	81.646	-1, -0.821
27	Indianapolis	77.054	3-3	81.300	-1, +0.384
28	Tennessee	75.860	3-4	83.109	+3, +2.375
29	Oakland	74.969	2-4	81.603	+1, +0.998
30	Jacksonville	74.953	1-5	82.109	-2, -0.613
31	Cleveland	74.942	1-6	79.796	-4, -1.469
32	Kansas City	71.047	1-5	80.289	+0, -0.377

Analyzing the 10/21/12 AP Poll

Here is week 8 of analyzing the AP poll.  Thanks as always to the AP publishing their voting.

All 8 charts are displayed below to make it easy to see the changes.

And there is more consensus this week with the top 4 teams all receiving votes in the top-5.  After that, there is a little more variance but not that bad until getting to Ohio State who is voted everywhere from 6 to 21.  Mississippi State also has a bit of a range, from 9 to 23.

But it is interesting to look at the specific totals and how they changed from last week:

• Alabama lost a first place vote and their total went from a perfect 1500 to 1499.
• Oregon beat perhaps their toughest opponent of the year 43-21 and lost 12 votes from 1436 to 1424.
• Florida had a convincing win over South Carolina and gained 19 votes from 1361 to 1380.
• Kansas State thumped West Virginia and gained 37 votes from 1296 to 1333.
• Notre Dame eked by BYU and lost 42 votes from 1283 to 1241, but stays #5.
• LSU beat a good Texas A&M and gained 19 votes from 1153 to 1172.
• Oregon State had a good win and moved up to #7 gaining 56 points from 1050 to 1106.
• Oklahoma had a convincing win and moved up 2 spots to #8 and gained 71 points from 994 to 1065.
• Ohio State won in OT and dropped 2 spots losing 43 votes from 1071 to 1028.

So, winning convincingly over good opponents helped everyone but Oregon who did so but lost some votes.  Winning close did not impress the voters and Notre Dame and Ohio State lost votes.

And then there were 11 - Looking at the remaining undefeated college football teams

With the completion of week 8 of the college football season, there are 11 teams that remain with unblemished records.  Let's take a look at each one along with the chances they might finish undefeated.  The analysis below will use my computer's current ratings and projections.

#1 K-State tops my computer's list at 7-0 and is projected to finish 12-0 and do so convincingly (73%).  They do still have a number of tough opponents in Texas Tech (#6, 6-1), Texas (#9, 5-2), TCU (#16, 5-2), Oklahoma St (#18, 4-2), and Baylor (#26, 3-3), but if they play like they have been, they should finished with a perfect record.  There is a 24% chance they finish with a loss and 3% that they get two losses so it isn't a lock however.

#3 Oregon is next also at 7-0 and is also projected to finish the regular season undefeated, with a higher probability, 78%, than K-State.  But they would have to play the Pac-12 Championship game, likely against USC in a rematch from earlier in the year.  But in large part to having that game at home, even including it Oregon still has a 77% chance of finishing 13-0.  They would have a 21% chance of one loss and a 2% chance of two.

Next is #4 Alabama at 7-0 and also projected to finish the regular season undefeated (62%).  They, like Oregon, would have a conference championship game and would likely have to face a tougher opponent than Oregon in Florida and also not get it at home.  The result is, when including this game, that Alabama is projected to lose one game along the way (44%) but still have a 40% chance of staying undefeated.  Note that the computer is not necessarily projecting they would get to the SEC championship game and lose it, rather just that there is a greater chance of them losing one of their remaining games than not.  They could get to the SEC championship game with that loss and still win that game.  Including the championship game, they'd have a 15% chance of two losses.

#5 Florida is also 7-0 and also projected to finish the regular season undefeated (67%).  But like Alabama, when including the championship game they are more likely to finish with one loss than none (54% to 24%) and have a 20% chance of two losses.

Oregon State is undefeated but only #11 at 6-0 having had one of their games postponed/cancelled due to travel issues.  Without replaying that game, they are projected to finish 9-2 (46%).  Why the drop-off?  Their remaining schedule includes Oregon (#3), @Stanford (#15), and ASU (#19).  They do have a 4% chance at no losses and 31% of just one.

Notre Dame is only ranked #13 by the computer but is 7-0 and thus in this discussion.  Given that they still have to play @Oklahoma, and @USC, they are projected to finish 10-2 (61%).  They are given a 1% chance of no losses and 36% of just one.

Mississippi State is 7-0 but has played the 2nd weakest schedule of all the remaining undefeateds (weaker than Rutgers and Louisville, even being in the SEC) and is thus just #21.  They also have @Alabama, Texas A&M, and at LSU remaining resulting a projected 9-3 record (42%).  They are given only a 0.1% chance of no losses, 4% of one, and 24% of two.

Rutgers is #23 at 7-0 and with a remaining schedule where the toughest opponent is #46 Cincinnati, they are projected to go undefeated (63%).  They do have a 33% chance of one loss and 4% of two.

Ohio State is 8-0 but only #29 due to some very close wins over some not so tough teams at home (3-5 Cal and 3-4 Purdue) and a 3 point win over a 2-5 Indiana, plus their toughest opponent thus far only being #45 Nebraska.  Given their current rating, they are projected to finish 10-2 (40%) but have a 36% chance of just one loss and a 10% chance of none, so it isn't out of the question.

Louisville is undefeated but only #49 due to a weak schedule and is projected to finish only 10-2 (46%).  The key game is finishing the season @Rutgers and they are given a 31% chance of just one loss but only a 1% chance of none.

Last, Ohio University is 7-0 but only #71.  They are given a 10% chance of staying undefeated and a 34% chance of just one loss, but most likely is 10-2 (38%).

There you have it.  Who do you think will finish undefeated?

College Football Week 8 Season Projections - Five (!) undefeated

The projected records for the regular season using results through week 8 are now available.

With some convincing wins this weekend, 3 more teams are added to the projected undefeated list.  It now includes Oregon, K-state, Florida, Rutgers, and Alabama, all at 62% or better.

Now, two of them would play each other in the SEC Championship game and Oregon would have a championship game to play against potentially USC, so K-State may be the big winner out of all of that should they manage to win out.  It is unlikely Rutgers would get anywhere close to being in position to take advantage of the situation to find themselves in the BCS Championship game.

The teams with one or fewer losses below, full list on the site.

Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Oregon	12-0	77.9	0.0	20.4
Kansas St	12-0	73.0	0.0	23.9
Florida	12-0	66.9	0.0	30.2
Rutgers	12-0	63.0	0.0	32.9
Alabama	12-0	62.2	0.0	33.3
Oklahoma	11-1	77.2	0.0	20.5
Northern Illinois	11-1	59.8	0.0	34.9
Boise St	11-1	55.3	0.0	40.4

College Football Week 8 Ratings and Rankings - K-State remains #1

This week's ratings and rankings are now posted.

An K-State stays #1 for the 3rd week in a row.  Even though they thumped WVU, their rating dropped slightly due to prior opponents Kansas and Iowa State doing worse than expected.  OU stays #2, their only loss was to #1 K-State and they have thumped everyone else.  Oregon improves to #3 after a convincing win in their most meaningful game of the year thus far.  Oregon's move drops Alabama to #4 even though Bama improved their rating slightly.  Florida falls in at #5 making a convincing move improving their rating over 5 points, but that garnered them only a 1 spot ranking improvement.

The top-25 is below, full ratings on the site.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Kansas St	100.984	7-0	73.092	+0, -0.677
2	Oklahoma	100.635	5-1	73.388	+0, -0.555
3	Oregon	97.158	7-0	66.746	+2, +7.448
4	Alabama	95.636	7-0	71.806	-1, +0.898
5	Florida	92.059	7-0	75.932	+1, +5.143
6	Texas Tech	90.729	6-1	75.202	-2, -2.034
7	LSU	85.744	7-1	70.266	+9, +5.229
8	South Carolina	84.886	6-2	73.896	-1, -0.983
9	Texas	84.591	5-2	77.824	+2, +1.157
10	Texas A&M	84.520	5-2	73.382	-1, +0.839
11	Oregon St	84.463	6-0	74.093	+3, +3.640
12	Arizona	83.295	4-3	74.696	+14, +6.188
13	Notre Dame	83.256	7-0	72.319	-3, -0.422
14	Southern Cal	82.829	6-1	68.435	-2, +1.695
15	Stanford	82.230	5-2	76.456	+6, +3.566
16	TCU	81.965	5-2	67.295	-1, +1.347
17	Florida St	81.453	7-1	59.692	+3, +1.975
18	Oklahoma St	81.365	4-2	66.678	+13, +5.910
19	Arizona St	81.102	5-2	70.474	-6, +0.121
20	Iowa St	81.096	4-3	77.711	-12, -4.742
21	Mississippi St	80.753	7-0	60.386	+1, +2.317
22	West Virginia	80.733	5-2	76.061	-4, +0.631
23	Rutgers	80.520	7-0	62.553	+0, +2.879
24	Georgia	79.378	6-1	67.838	-7, -0.883
25	Utah St	79.332	6-2	65.706	-1, +1.750

NFL Week 6 "What If" Ratings, Rankings, and Projected Records

Below you will find my computer's ratings, rankings, and projections calculated using the week 3 Green Bay at Seattle game as a 12-7 win by Green Bay.  This is being done to see how things would be different if the officials had made the right call.

For the ratings and rankings, the change column is the difference from the actual week 6 ratings.  You'll see that Green Bay would jump up to #3 while Seattle would fall 1 spot to #9.  A few other teams like the Giants would also be impacted.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Chicago	90.356	4-1	82.034	+0, +0.359
2	Houston	88.354	5-1	80.968	+0, +0.339
3	Green Bay	88.067	4-2	83.707	+3, +1.568
4	New England	87.013	3-3	82.510	-1, -0.346
5	Atlanta	86.701	6-0	78.091	-1, -0.083
6	San Francisco	86.622	4-2	83.015	+1, +0.276
7	NY Giants	86.580	4-2	80.318	-2, -0.152
8	Denver	84.816	3-3	82.245	+1, +0.004
9	Seattle	84.409	3-3	83.676	-1, -1.391
10	Baltimore	83.971	5-1	78.217	+0, -0.170
11	St Louis	83.858	3-3	83.620	-1, -0.283
12	Minnesota	83.378	4-2	79.135	+1, +0.162
13	Arizona	83.171	4-2	81.571	-1, -0.370
14	Dallas	82.214	2-3	85.699	+0, -0.336
15	Washington	82.160	3-3	81.499	+0, -0.059
16	Miami	82.145	3-3	81.721	+0, -0.035
17	NY Jets	81.417	3-3	81.065	+0, +0.208
18	Tampa Bay	80.179	2-3	79.407	+0, -0.222
19	Cincinnati	79.567	3-3	80.464	+0, -0.018
20	Detroit	79.477	2-3	81.841	+0, +0.005
21	Buffalo	79.174	3-3	81.983	+0, -0.074
22	Pittsburgh	78.912	2-3	79.108	+1, +0.003
23	Philadelphia	78.829	3-3	81.407	-1, -0.124
24	San Diego	78.528	3-3	77.609	+0, -0.040
25	Carolina	77.736	1-4	82.036	+0, -0.406
26	Indianapolis	77.185	2-3	83.213	+0, +0.515
27	Cleveland	76.331	1-5	81.281	+0, -0.080
28	Jacksonville	75.845	1-4	83.168	+0, +0.279
29	New Orleans	75.313	1-4	78.968	+0, -0.010
30	Oakland	73.961	1-4	82.820	+0, -0.010
31	Tennessee	73.519	2-4	82.610	+0, +0.034
32	Kansas City	71.347	1-5	80.644	+0, -0.077

But more interesting is how the playoff projections change.  Green Bay would go from being 9-7 and having to win a tie-breaker to get the last wildcard spot to 11-5 and just one game behind Chicago for the division.  Seattle would go from being tied for the division at 10-6 to being tied for the last wildcard at 9-7.

Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Atlanta	13-3	26.7	26.7	17.2
Houston	12-4	28.7	26.0	19.2
Chicago	12-4	27.2	23.0	20.7
Baltimore	11-5	26.5	20.6	22.2
Green Bay	11-5	28.1	19.9	24.1
Denver	11-5	31.1	19.8	26.1
NY Giants	10-6	25.9	24.7	17.8
New England	10-6	26.7	19.3	23.6
San Francisco	10-6	25.0	18.5	22.8
Seattle	9-7	25.1	16.8	24.5
Washington	9-7	25.1	16.8	24.5
Minnesota	8-8	26.9	24.8	18.1
Miami	8-8	26.3	24.3	18.3
Dallas	8-8	24.6	24.2	16.8
Arizona	8-8	26.1	23.4	19.0
Cincinnati	8-8	25.3	21.6	20.1
St Louis	8-8	25.3	20.1	21.6
San Diego	8-8	26.1	19.9	22.6
NY Jets	8-8	25.2	18.9	22.7
Buffalo	7-9	24.9	24.5	16.6
Tampa Bay	7-9	25.6	23.4	18.5
Pittsburgh	7-9	25.6	23.0	18.9
Philadelphia	7-9	26.7	20.6	22.4
Indianapolis	7-9	25.3	17.8	23.8
Carolina	5-11	24.2	24.0	16.4
Detroit	5-11	27.6	23.8	19.7
Oakland	5-11	25.0	23.3	18.0
Jacksonville	5-11	25.3	22.4	19.3
Tennessee	5-11	28.1	19.2	25.5
Cleveland	5-11	27.5	19.2	24.7
New Orleans	4-12	27.9	21.6	22.6
Kansas City	4-12	27.7	17.7	26.9

I'll continue to calculate these each week so we can see how things would be different.

NFL Week 6 Projected Records

The projected records after week 6 are now posted and listed below as well.

Atlanta and  Houston continue to lead the way as they have for 4 weeks now, although the projected records are the worst they been at 13-3 and 12-4.

In the NFC, a 3-way tie for the last wildcard at 9-7 is projected with Green Bay getting the current nod as getting in based on them having the best chance at being 1 game better at 10-6.

In the AFC, both wildcards are projected to be at 8-8 and 4 teams vying for the spot.  Presently, Miami and Cincinnati get the nod based on having the better shot at 9-7.

I am also tracking the projected playoff teams by week so take a look at that to see how things change from week to week.

Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Atlanta	13-3	26.8	26.6	17.3
Houston	12-4	28.8	24.8	20.3
Chicago	12-4	26.9	21.5	21.7
Baltimore	11-5	26.5	21.2	21.7
Denver	11-5	30.9	19.3	26.4
NY Giants	10-6	25.7	25.3	17.1
Seattle	10-6	26.6	22.7	20.3
New England	10-6	27.3	21.0	22.6
San Francisco	10-6	24.4	16.8	23.8
Green Bay	9-7	26.6	25.3	17.8
Dallas	9-7	24.9	16.8	24.2
Washington	9-7	24.8	16.3	24.8
Minnesota	8-8	26.9	24.6	18.3
Arizona	8-8	25.6	24.2	17.7
Miami	8-8	26.6	23.9	19.0
Cincinnati	8-8	25.3	21.4	20.3
St Louis	8-8	25.5	20.9	21.0
San Diego	8-8	26.1	19.7	22.7
NY Jets	8-8	24.9	17.7	23.7
Buffalo	7-9	25.0	24.5	16.7
Tampa Bay	7-9	25.4	23.9	17.9
Pittsburgh	7-9	25.7	22.7	19.3
Philadelphia	7-9	26.7	20.4	22.6
Indianapolis	6-10	24.8	24.6	16.4
Carolina	6-10	24.4	17.3	23.5
Detroit	5-11	27.2	24.3	18.7
Oakland	5-11	25.2	23.2	18.2
Jacksonville	5-11	25.4	22.1	19.6
Tennessee	5-11	28.2	20.1	24.5
Cleveland	5-11	27.6	19.5	24.5
New Orleans	4-12	28.0	20.6	23.8
Kansas City	4-12	27.8	17.9	26.8

NFL Week 6 Ratings and Rankings - A new #1 in Chicago

The ratings after week 6 are now posted and listed below as well.

Chicago is the new #1 with Houston dropping after their loss.  New England's rating dropped nearly a point but moves up 2 spots thanks to the 49ers loss and Atlanta's narrow win.

The NFC West is not quite as highly rated as they have been, now just #7, #8, and #12.  It will be a huge game this Thursday when Seattle visits San Francisco.

The computer didn't have Cleveland the worst last week, Kansas City was, and they remain there this week.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Chicago	89.997	4-1	81.685	+2, +0.946
2	Houston	88.015	5-1	80.625	-1, -5.236
3	New England	87.359	3-3	82.838	+2, -0.819
4	Atlanta	86.784	6-0	78.189	+0, -2.086
5	NY Giants	86.732	4-2	80.467	+11, +5.555
6	Green Bay	86.499	3-3	83.692	+7, +3.375
7	San Francisco	86.346	4-2	82.729	-5, -2.793
8	Seattle	85.800	4-2	83.705	+2, +1.078
9	Denver	84.812	3-3	82.268	-1, -0.918
10	Baltimore	84.141	5-1	78.380	-1, -1.344
10	St Louis	84.141	3-3	83.868	+1, -0.087
12	Arizona	83.541	4-2	81.947	-6, -2.978
13	Minnesota	83.216	4-2	78.960	-6, -3.058
14	Dallas	82.550	2-3	86.014	+7, +2.833
15	Washington	82.219	3-3	81.575	+5, +2.280
16	Miami	82.180	3-3	81.744	-4, -1.183
17	NY Jets	81.209	3-3	80.895	-2, -0.010
18	Tampa Bay	80.401	2-3	79.613	+8, +4.163
19	Cincinnati	79.585	3-3	80.488	-5, -2.408
20	Detroit	79.472	2-3	81.828	+2, +0.659
21	Buffalo	79.248	3-3	82.048	+4, +1.993
22	Philadelphia	78.953	3-3	81.534	-3, -1.042
23	Pittsburgh	78.909	2-3	79.086	-6, -2.123
24	San Diego	78.568	3-3	77.633	-6, -1.896
25	Carolina	78.142	1-4	82.408	+2, +2.467
26	Indianapolis	76.670	2-3	82.697	-3, -1.653
27	Cleveland	76.411	1-5	81.374	+4, +3.214
28	Jacksonville	75.566	1-4	82.897	-4, -1.971
29	New Orleans	75.323	1-4	78.770	-1, +0.846
30	Oakland	73.971	1-4	82.851	-1, +0.175
31	Tennessee	73.485	2-4	82.590	-1, -0.022
32	Kansas City	71.424	1-5	80.744	+0, -1.507

Estimated Dynamic NTRP Reports Available for Colorado Springs

The reports I've advertised are now available for men and women who play in USTA league play in Colorado Springs.  Contact me to get more details and request a report.

Estimated Dynamic NTRP Reports Available for Denver Men

The reports I've advertised are now available for men who play in USTA league play in Denver.  Contact me to get more details and request a report.

Estimated Dynamic NTRP for Mixed Leagues Available

In the Pacific Northwest, our mixed leagues are "early start" leagues in that our 2013 season starts in the fall of 2012.  Leagues have already started, but as a reference, I have now posted the ratings for the 2012 regular season as a reference for how players would be rated if just their mixed results were used.

Should anyone not be aware, the rating the USTA calculates for a player is based solely on their play in men's or women's league action unless they do not play enough matches, in which case a "mixed exclusive" rating is calculated.  The mixed ratings posted would be an estimate of what a player's mixed exclusive rating would be.

I will be calculating Estimated Dynamic NTRP ratings for the 2013 season.  I may post results periodically, but if you are interested in regular reports, contact me directly.

Enjoy!

Analyzing the 10/14/12 AP Poll

Here is week 7 of analyzing the AP poll.  Thanks as always to the AP publishing their voting.

All 7 charts are displayed below to make it easy to see the changes.

One can see by scrolling through the diagrams below how, in general, consensus is being built as the games are played.  The range of votes for the top 6 is the narrowest it has been all year.

My computer still says the voters are off a bit with LSU being much too high at #6 (computer has them #16, it can't forget 12-10 over a 1-5 Auburn and giving up 22 to a 3-3 non-FBS Towson).  And right behind LSU at #7 is Ohio State, but they have votes as low as #22 but as high as #4.  My computer says the lowest vote isn't even right though having them at #25.  Barely beating a 3-4 Cal and only beating a 1-5 UAB by 14, both at home, and beating a 4-3 MSU by only 1 and a 2-4 Indiana by only 3 do not impress.

College Football Week 7 Season Projections - Only two undefeated

The projected records for the regular season using results through week 7 are now available.

There are now two teams projected to finished undefeated; Kansas State and Alabama.  Both are projected at just over 70%.

Of the teams projected to have one loss, Rutgers has the best chance at none but Florida and Oregon are very close behind all just over 35%.

It is important to note that these projections do not include any conference championship games.  In this regard, K-State and Rutgers have an advantage.

The teams with one or fewer losses below, full list on the site.

Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Kansas St	12-0	71.7	0.0	25.1
Alabama	12-0	70.1	0.0	26.9
Rutgers	11-1	47.2	35.7	15.1
Florida	11-1	43.8	35.0	18.4
Oregon	11-1	42.6	35.0	18.6
Oklahoma	11-1	77.3	0.0	20.5
Northern Illinois	11-1	57.2	0.0	35.2

College Football Week 7 Ratings and Rankings - K-State stays #1

This week's ratings and rankings are now posted.

For the first time in several weeks, we have a #1 team stick around for 2 consecutive weeks.  Kansas State stays #1 but just barely over Oklahoma.  Both had wins over highly rated 1-loss teams, OU's being more impressive having them leap in the ratings.  Alabama falls to #2 and another Big-12 team in Texas Tech is up to #4.  Oregon slots in at #5 and Florida #6.

Why does the computer give the Big-12 more props than the SEC?  Simply put, they have gone 26-3 in non-conference games while the SEC has gone 31-7.  And the Big-12's losses are only to 6-1 Northern Illinois and Rice (both by Kansas), and to Arizona by Oklahoma State.  And they have a win (Texas 66-31 over Ole Miss) in the one head to head with the SEC.  Plus they have wins over a 4-2 Iowa, 4-3 Miami, and 4-2 Maryland.

The top-25 is below, full ratings on the site.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Kansas St	101.661	6-0	70.288	+0, +6.601
2	Oklahoma	101.190	4-1	75.724	+1,+10.373
3	Alabama	94.738	6-0	69.795	-1, -0.116
4	Texas Tech	92.763	5-1	74.348	+7, +9.725
5	Oregon	89.710	6-0	61.606	-1, -0.437
6	Florida	86.916	6-0	73.222	+0, -0.528
7	South Carolina	85.869	6-1	70.105	-2, -2.647
8	Iowa St	85.838	4-2	77.525	+13, +7.475
9	Texas A&M	83.681	5-1	69.129	-2, -1.217
10	Notre Dame	83.678	6-0	71.210	-1, -0.759
11	Texas	83.434	4-2	77.001	-3, -1.022
12	Southern Cal	81.134	5-1	69.265	+4, +1.725
13	Arizona St	80.981	5-1	65.706	+2, +0.889
14	Oregon St	80.823	5-0	72.542	+14, +5.313
15	TCU	80.618	5-1	63.067	+19, +7.092
16	LSU	80.515	6-1	66.209	+1, +1.156
17	Georgia	80.261	5-1	67.166	-4, -1.590
18	West Virginia	80.102	5-1	71.861	-8, -4.001
19	Michigan	79.487	4-2	69.572	-5, -0.824
20	Florida St	79.478	6-1	57.121	-1, +0.433
21	Stanford	78.664	4-2	74.400	-3, -0.680
22	Mississippi St	78.436	6-0	59.378	+0, +0.586
23	Rutgers	77.641	6-0	60.622	+0, -0.165
24	Utah St	77.582	5-2	66.560	+14, +5.204
25	Ohio State	77.496	7-0	65.236	-5, -1.119

How accurate are the Estimated Dynamic NTRP ratings?

A question I get periodically is regarding the accuracy of my Estimated Dynamic NTRP ratings.  They are just an estimate, but feedback I get from folks that look at them is that they are quite accurate.  When chatting with an opponent at a recent mixed match, I was told it was spot on in predicting early start bump ups.

But a recent comment to my post on the availability of Estimated Dynamic NTRP reports pointed out that some players were bumped up to 4.5 that had estimated ratings below 4.0 and thus shouldn't have been.  So I thought I'd take a look at that exact list to see what I could learn.

There were 19 women in Northwest Washington that were on the 2012 early start list that were bumped to 4.5.  Of these 19, my current ratings show 12 having an estimated rating at or above the 4.0 threshold, and 16 of the 19 at or above 3.95.  Given my ratings are an estimate and 0.05 is probably an acceptable margin for error, predicting 84% of the bump ups isn't too bad.

Of the 3 that were not predicted, one had a very good record but played with some good partners which can hold ones rating down, another had a good record and won some playing up at 4.5, but also lost some she shouldn't have at 4.0, and the last hovered right around 3.9 but had a couple bad One Doubles results that weren't used for early start ratings which could explain the difference.

Also, one of the players started as a self rated 3.5.  My ratings both predicted their DQ at 3.5 and the bump up to 4.5.

I'll try to take a look at others to see how the early starts were predicted, but 80+% isn't too bad.

Analyzing the 10/7/12 AP College Football Poll

Here is week 6 of analyzing the AP poll.  Thanks as always to the AP publishing their voting.

All 6 charts are displayed below to make it easy to see the changes.

And we have a shake-up.  My computer said FSU and LSU were too high and that proved correct with their losses and their falls to #9 and #12, which is actually still too high, but that is another story.  South Carolina, Florida, and West Virginia benefit leapfrogging even K-State at now #6.

The voters are most confused by Ohio State having them everywhere from #4 to #17, although Stanford and Louisville also have wide ranges of #10 to #25.

College Football Week 6 Ratings and Rankings - New #1 in Kansas State

This week's ratings and rankings are now posted.

For the 3rd week in a row, we have a new #1.  All of the big games and upsets and big scores have caused a significant shakeup in the ratings and the result is that Kansas State moves to #1.  They get a big boost by Oklahoma, their biggest game to date, beating up on former undefeated Texas Tech.  Idle Alabama stays #2 and aforementioned Oklahoma moves to #3.  Oregon improved their rating but got passed by Oklahoma while South Carolina jumps 3 spots to #5.

Last week's #1, Florida, falls to #6, they won but not by as much as expected and were hurt by former opponent Kentucky not doing as well as expected.  Other big winners yesterday, Notre Dame and West Virginia, move up to #9 and #10, and the computer didn't like LSU before, having them #14 and they fall a bit more to #17 this week.  The computer also hadn't been fond of FSU and they too fall more to #19.

The top-25 is below, full ratings on the site.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Kansas St	95.060	5-0	62.664	+6, +9.731
2	Alabama	94.854	5-0	67.508	+0, +3.952
3	Oklahoma	90.817	3-1	69.938	+13,+12.068
4	Oregon	90.147	6-0	61.547	-1, +2.537
5	South Carolina	88.516	6-0	68.713	+3, +3.944
6	Florida	87.444	5-0	72.882	-5, -3.838
7	Texas A&M	84.898	4-1	68.013	-2, -1.990
8	Texas	84.456	4-1	72.671	-2, -0.977
9	Notre Dame	84.437	5-0	71.246	+2, +4.351
10	West Virginia	84.103	5-0	69.513	+3, +4.336
11	Texas Tech	83.038	4-1	69.053	-2, -1.498
12	Baylor	81.875	3-1	72.167	+3, +2.758
13	Georgia	81.851	5-1	67.447	-9, -5.240
14	Michigan	80.311	3-2	72.324	+24, +7.609
15	Arizona St	80.092	4-1	66.289	-3, +0.217
16	Southern Cal	79.409	4-1	67.321	+5, +1.869
17	LSU	79.359	5-1	63.750	-3, -0.089
18	Stanford	79.344	4-1	72.994	+2, +1.723
19	Florida St	79.045	5-1	57.178	-9, -5.490
20	Ohio State	78.615	6-0	64.913	+8, +4.254
21	Iowa St	78.363	4-1	69.406	+10, +4.656
22	Mississippi St	77.850	5-0	57.108	+2, +1.402
23	Rutgers	77.806	5-0	59.820	+0, +0.808
24	San Jose St	76.545	4-1	66.144	+5, +2.234
25	Arizona	76.362	3-3	71.139	+2, +1.202

The computer's view of the 3 upsets today

The first big weekend that had some of the top teams playing each other resulted in some important results.

Computer #4 Georgia visited #8 South Carolina with South Carolina favored by both Vegas and the computer.  The computer had the winner right, but it was by far more than expected and South Carolina should move up.

Computer #1 Florida hosted #14 LSU and LSU was favored in the game.  The computer has not been impressed with LSU and picked Florida big and they won, but not by quite as much as picked.  Nevertheless, the computer got the upset right and pick against the spread.  Because they won by less than expected though, Florida could lose a few ratings points, but it depends on all the other games too of course.

Computer #10 Florida State state visited #56 NC State and was favored, but the computer has also not been impressed with FSU having them only #10 while the polls have them #3.  So the computer did not pick the upset, but did pick Clemson against the spread and got that right.

Interesting College Football Week 6 Upset Picks - Florida, TTU, Syracuse, Purdue, Northwestern

The computer has several teams rated a bit differently than the polls and apparently different than Vegas as there are several key games where the computer is picking the upset.

LSU visits Florida, and frankly LSU has not impressed in some of their games while my computer has Florida #1.  But Vegas has LSU as the favorite.  The computer says pick the upset.

Oklahoma visits Texas Tech as a road favorite, OU having a loss but being the only one ranked in the polls.  But the computer really likes Texas Tech to win.

Syracuse hosts Pitt in a similar scenario to the above, although the computer's opinion on Syracuse pulling the upset is not quite as strong.

Similarly, Purdue hosts a disappointing Michigan squad as the underdog but the computer likes Purdue to win.

Staying in the B1G, Northwestern goes on the road to Penn State as an underdog but the computer likes them to win.

These 5 games will each go a long way to determining what happens in their respective conferences and have the traditional or recently better team favored, but the computer, looking at just the data, likes the underdogs.  Will tradition prevail or is the computer right?

College Football Week 5 BCS Algorithm Ratings and Rankings - A first look at a BCS compatible algorithm

I post my regular ratings starting with week 1 of the season, but also calculate a set of ratings using a BCS compatible algorithm.  The latter does not use margin of victory, which makes it a far less accurate predictor of games, and also makes the ratings frankly pretty silly looking the first few weeks of the year, so I haven't posted them until this week.

The top-25 is below, and you will see that Florida is #1 here as they are in the regular ratings.  LSU makes a big move to #2 and they are followed by K-State, Georgia, and Oregon State.

Where is Alabama?  They are down at #9.  Understanding why this is can be educational as to why the BCS handicaps the computers.

Alabama has played a 2-loss Michigan, a 2-loss Mississippi, 4-loss Arkansas and Florida Atlantic, and a 1-loss Western Kentucky.  Because the computer can't take into account the margin of victory, while undefeated, the schedule isn't that strong and no single team is very strong.

LSU on the other hand just made a big leap and is rated higher because they beat a 1-loss Washington who also beat a 1-loss Stanford who beat a 1-loss Southern Cal.  So even though their average schedule is weaker, they have a very good quality win.

And Florida just has a much stronger average schedule.

What about Oregon?  They are way down at #13 and haven't played a team with fewer than 2 losses.

Most of the computers the BCS uses don't publish ratings early in the year because of the challenges with rating a team properly when you don't use the score, but also because most of the algorithms haven't been tuned to do so.  The result is some pretty fishy looking rankings.

Kenneth Massey does publish his and presently has a top-3 of Oregon State, Notre Dame, and Texas Tech.  Alabama is #8, Oregon #16, and LSU #13.  Not completely far fetched, but also likely not that accurate.  To be fair, Ken does have an algorithm that does use the score and it has Alabama #1, Oregon #4, and LSU #6.

Billingsley also publishes, but he also assumed starting rankings from the end of last year which would seem to be a violation of the rules for a BCS computer.  This is how he manages to have reasonable results.  Of course, he still has Michigan in his top-20 (#19) and Arkansas in the top-50!

Colley has rankings published and similar to Massey has Oregon State and Notre Dame at the top.  Jeff Sagarin also publishes and has the most reasonable results.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Florida	83.036	4-0	67.454	+0, -3.685
2	LSU	81.692	5-0	59.142	+8, +2.887
3	Kansas St	81.491	4-0	58.859	-1, -2.570
4	Georgia	80.949	5-0	61.141	+1, -0.981
5	Oregon St	79.623	3-0	71.840	+14, +3.534
6	Notre Dame	79.521	4-0	66.180	+0, -2.399
7	Texas Tech	79.076	4-0	62.836	+9, +2.333
8	Florida St	78.634	5-0	55.935	-5, -4.855
9	Alabama	78.249	5-0	62.625	+4, +0.341
10	South Carolina	77.874	5-0	65.503	-1, -1.941
11	Texas	77.385	4-0	64.832	-4, -4.534
12	Washington	76.486	3-1	64.891	+33, +6.256
13	Oregon	75.643	5-0	56.819	-9, -7.198
14	West Virginia	75.546	4-0	60.318	+15, +2.378
15	Ohio State	75.471	5-0	61.891	+26, +3.904
16	Stanford	75.351	3-1	69.083	-8, -5.113
17	Mississippi St	74.773	4-0	55.802	+8, +0.910
18	Texas A&M	74.754	3-1	63.281	-7, -3.588
19	Clemson	74.563	4-1	65.003	-5, -2.618
20	Iowa St	73.663	3-1	65.960	+2, -1.191
21	Rutgers	73.548	4-0	60.380	+18, +1.832
22	Missouri	73.080	3-2	69.552	+1, -1.147
23	Oklahoma	72.952	2-1	61.389	-3, -2.914
24	Purdue	72.641	3-1	65.204	+3, -0.746
25	Tennessee	72.460	3-2	63.555	-13, -5.599