Thursday, December 3, 2009

Oregon vs Oregon State Analysis

So the Civil War has real meaning this year with the winner of Oregon vs Oregon State going to the Rose Bowl.  So how do the teams really match up?

Here are the performance charts for each team, then a further discussion below.

 

With the game being in Eugene, the computer is picking Oregon by 7.3 but the line is 10 so the pick ATS would be Oregon State.  But let's take a look at common opponents:
  • Arizona - Oregon State lost by 5 at home early in the year and Oregon won by only 3 on the road just a week and a half ago.  Advantage Oregon.
  • Arizona State - Oregon State won 28-17 on the road and Oregon won 44-21 at home in November.  Close to a push.
  • California - Oregon won 42-3 at home and Oregon State won 31-14 on the road later in the year.  Small advantage to Oregon.
  • Stanford - Oregon State won by 10 at home, Oregon lost by 9 on the road.  Advantage Oregon State.
  • UCLA - Oregon won by 14 on the road and Oregon State by only 7 at home.  Advantage Oregon.
  • USC - Oregon State lost by 6 on the road and Oregon walloped them by 27 at home.  Big advantage Oregon.
  • Washington - Both had similar big wins over the Huskies, a push.
  • Washington State - They both easily handled the Cougars, a push.
That gives a pretty easy advantage to Oregon.  But what about non-conference games?

Oregon lost at Boise State and eked out a win over Purdue at home and beat a good Utah team by 7 at home.  Oregon State played a few patsies in Portland State and UNLV but barely beat the latter, and then lost by 10 to Cincy.  Close to a push.

So, it would seem the computers pick of Oregon by 7 is probably close to correct, but Oregon is 7-4 ATS this year while Oregon State is 5-5.  Use that as you will.

It will be fun to watch!