Monday, December 21, 2009

2009 Week 16 College Football Ratings/Rankings and Summary

Ratings through week 16 (games played thru 20-Dec).  These are also at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-ratings.

With three bowl games played and the Division II and FCS playoffs complete, the ratings have been updated a bit.

There is no change in the top 6 positions but based on Fresno State doing worse than expected, Boise State falls 2 spots to #9.  Farther down the rankings Utah moves up 2 spots based on Wyoming's win and Houston drops 5 spots based on Southern Miss's loss.

And the computer has had an outstanding start to the bowl season going 3-0 against the spread.  It isn't doing so well picking winners going 1-2 but Vegas is 1-2 as well.  Full prediction performance here and if you are interested in a newsletter with additional details on picks against the spread, best picks, and locks, see this. See the bowl game previews posted thus far and subscribe if you want to get them e-mailed to you well in advance of the games.

Rank Team Rating Record Schedule Change
Rank Team Rating Record Schedule Change
1 Alabama 92.169 13-0 72.305 +0, +0.097
2 Florida 87.369 12-1 71.382 +0, +0.116
3 Texas 86.481 13-0 69.492 +0, -0.045
4 TCU 85.778 12-0 65.291 +0, +0.392
5 Virginia Tech 82.611 9-3 72.743 +0, +0.002
6 Oregon 82.452 10-2 72.541 +0, +0.020
7 Arkansas 81.874 7-5 72.995 +1, +0.118
8 Cincinnati 81.723 12-0 66.967 +1, +0.346
9 Boise St 81.446 13-0 62.125 -2, -0.383
10 LSU 81.204 9-3 72.645 +0, +0.072
11 Oklahoma 80.264 7-5 70.467 +0, -0.006
12 Georgia Tech 80.006 11-2 72.611 +0, +0.081
13 Miami FL 79.175 9-3 71.662 +0, -0.028
14 Texas Tech 78.975 8-4 67.962 +0, -0.063
15 Oregon St 78.856 8-4 70.478 +0, +0.075
16 Stanford 78.508 8-4 70.660 +0, +0.045
17 Ohio State 78.353 10-2 66.182 +0, -0.044
18 Clemson 78.297 8-5 70.916 +0, +0.203
19 Nebraska 78.130 9-4 69.104 +0, +0.051
20 Mississippi 78.030 8-4 70.201 +0, +0.052
21 Pittsburgh 77.825 9-3 68.378 +1, +0.382
22 Tennessee 77.799 7-5 70.971 -1, +0.066
23 Auburn 77.510 7-5 73.091 +0, +0.085
24 Arizona 77.396 8-4 72.006 +0, +0.038
25 Penn State 76.963 10-2 64.350 +0, -0.011
26 Southern Cal 76.754 8-4 71.872 +0, +0.032
27 Oklahoma St 75.846 9-3 68.761 +0, -0.036
28 North Carolina 75.583 8-4 69.270 +1, +0.046
29 Iowa 75.508 10-2 67.843 -1, -0.033
30 Georgia 75.428 7-5 74.041 +0, +0.078
31 South Carolina 75.209 7-5 73.780 +0, +0.126
32 West Virginia 75.148 9-3 69.458 +0, +0.343
33 Connecticut 74.973 7-5 69.210 +0, +0.373
34 Brigham Young 74.667 10-2 66.452 +1, +0.352
35 Utah 74.525 9-3 66.007 +2, +0.358
36 Kentucky 74.514 7-5 69.642 -2, +0.126
37 Mississippi St 74.434 5-7 73.559 -1, +0.170
38 California 74.072 8-4 71.215 +0, +0.062
39 Rutgers 73.045 9-4 62.572 +9, +1.510
40 Florida St 72.687 6-6 73.246 +0, +0.160
41 Central Michigan 72.597 11-2 60.985 -2, +0.023
42 Boston College 72.520 8-4 68.600 +0, +0.086
43 Missouri 72.430 8-4 68.810 -2, -0.012
44 Washington 72.406 5-7 72.735 +0, +0.027
45 Texas A&M 72.310 6-6 69.795 +0, +0.002
46 Wisconsin 72.123 9-3 65.753 +0, -0.149
47 Notre Dame 71.956 6-6 69.926 +0, +0.038
48 Houston 71.903 10-3 63.294 -5, -0.488
49 Wake Forest 71.573 5-7 71.117 +0, +0.084
50 UCLA 71.416 6-6 72.576 +0, +0.060
51 Air Force 71.377 7-5 64.304 +0, +0.362
52 South Florida 71.128 7-5 67.251 +1, +0.430
53 Nevada 70.467 8-4 64.237 -1, -0.299
54 East Carolina 70.144 9-4 66.339 +0, -0.421
55 Navy 69.950 9-4 64.892 +0, -0.040
56 Michigan St 69.656 6-6 67.176 +0, -0.026
57 Arizona St 69.414 4-8 69.656 +0, +0.074
58 Troy 68.709 9-3 62.602 +2, +0.438
59 Kansas 68.515 5-7 69.530 +0, -0.106
60 Minnesota 67.904 6-6 69.651 +2, +0.019
61 Middle Tennessee St 67.849 10-3 60.578 +10, +1.392
62 Virginia 67.721 3-9 73.262 +1, -0.028
63 Iowa St 67.533 6-6 66.748 +2, +0.030
64 Kansas St 67.475 6-6 67.588 +2, +0.061
65 Fresno St 67.290 8-5 65.252 -7, -1.567
66 Purdue 66.909 5-7 67.832 +1, -0.040
67 Temple 66.885 9-3 60.638 +1, -0.001
68 Northwestern 66.704 8-4 63.045 +1, -0.022
69 Central Florida 66.679 8-5 65.147 -8, -1.582
70 Baylor 66.561 4-8 71.105 +0, +0.036
71 Duke 66.435 5-7 68.060 +2, +0.058
72 Ohio U. 66.361 9-4 62.409 +2, +0.048
73 Southern Miss 66.296 7-6 62.482 -9, -1.368
74 North Carolina St 66.254 5-7 67.351 +1, +0.146
75 Louisiana Tech 66.093 4-8 65.535 -3, -0.356
76 Bowling Green 65.802 7-5 63.843 +0, -0.002
77 Syracuse 65.082 4-8 68.875 +0, +0.361
78 Northern Illinois 64.580 7-5 58.852 +0, -0.018
79 Maryland 63.958 2-10 70.818 +2, +0.327
80 Marshall 63.827 6-6 65.821 -1, -0.442
80 Wyoming 63.827 7-6 67.754 +12, +1.643
82 Colorado 63.757 3-9 70.420 +1, +0.250
83 SMU 63.530 7-5 63.746 -3, -0.297
84 Illinois 63.399 3-9 68.520 -2, -0.172
85 Michigan 63.348 5-7 64.253 -1, -0.052
86 Vanderbilt 63.282 2-10 71.589 +0, +0.043
87 Alabama-Birmingham 62.843 5-7 65.328 -2, -0.403
88 Louisville 62.751 4-8 68.508 +0, +0.344
89 UNLV 62.612 5-7 66.607 +2, +0.332
90 Buffalo 62.231 5-7 62.351 -1, -0.095
91 Utah St 62.188 4-8 66.225 -4, -0.275
92 Indiana 62.041 4-8 65.855 +2, -0.054
93 Duke 66.435 5-7 68.060 -20, +0.058
94 Virginia 67.721 3-9 73.262 -31, -0.028
95 Idaho 61.995 7-5 64.191 -5, -0.299
96 Washington St 54.794 1-11 73.172 +12, -0.054
97 Wisconsin 72.123 9-3 65.753 -51, -0.149
98 West Virginia 75.148 9-3 69.458 -66, +0.343
99 Wyoming 63.827 7-6 67.754 -7, +1.643
100 Louisville 62.751 4-8 68.508 -12, +0.344
101 Kentucky 74.514 7-5 69.642 -67, +0.126
102 New Mexico St 50.820 3-10 63.851 +16, -0.288
103 Texas 86.481 13-0 69.492 -100, -0.045
104 Central Florida 66.679 8-5 65.147 -43, -1.582
105 Virginia Tech 82.611 9-3 72.743 -100, +0.002
106 East Carolina 70.144 9-4 66.339 -52, -0.421
107 Cincinnati 81.723 12-0 66.967 -98, +0.346
108 TCU 85.778 12-0 65.291 -104, +0.392
109 Tulane 53.569 3-9 64.474 +1, -0.433
110 Arizona St 69.414 4-8 69.656 -53, +0.074
111 Arkansas 81.874 7-5 72.995 -103, +0.118
112 Army 55.375 5-7 60.240 -7, +0.167
113 Boise St 81.446 13-0 62.125 -106, -0.383
114 UCLA 71.416 6-6 72.576 -64, +0.060
115 Florida Int'l 52.525 3-9 64.964 +2, +0.544
116 Syracuse 65.082 4-8 68.875 -39, +0.361
117 Notre Dame 71.956 6-6 69.926 -70, +0.038
118 Pittsburgh 77.825 9-3 68.378 -96, +0.382
119 Purdue 66.909 5-7 67.832 -52, -0.040
120 Stanford 78.508 8-4 70.660 -104, +0.045
45 Texas A&M 72.310 6-6 69.795 +0, +0.002
46 Wisconsin 72.123 9-3 65.753 +0, -0.149
47 Notre Dame 71.956 6-6 69.926 +0, +0.038
48 Houston 71.903 10-3 63.294 -5, -0.488
49 Wake Forest 71.573 5-7 71.117 +0, +0.084
50 UCLA 71.416 6-6 72.576 +0, +0.060
51 Air Force 71.377 7-5 64.304 +0, +0.362
52 South Florida 71.128 7-5 67.251 +1, +0.430
53 Nevada 70.467 8-4 64.237 -1, -0.299
54 East Carolina 70.144 9-4 66.339 +0, -0.421
55 Navy 69.950 9-4 64.892 +0, -0.040
56 Michigan St 69.656 6-6 67.176 +0, -0.026
57 Arizona St 69.414 4-8 69.656 +0, +0.074
58 Troy 68.709 9-3 62.602 +2, +0.438
59 Kansas 68.515 5-7 69.530 +0, -0.106
60 Minnesota 67.904 6-6 69.651 +2, +0.019
61 Middle Tennessee St 67.849 10-3 60.578 +10, +1.392
62 Virginia 67.721 3-9 73.262 +1, -0.028
63 Iowa St 67.533 6-6 66.748 +2, +0.030
64 Kansas St 67.475 6-6 67.588 +2, +0.061
65 Fresno St 67.290 8-5 65.252 -7, -1.567
66 Purdue 66.909 5-7 67.832 +1, -0.040
67 Temple 66.885 9-3 60.638 +1, -0.001
68 Northwestern 66.704 8-4 63.045 +1, -0.022
69 Central Florida 66.679 8-5 65.147 -8, -1.582
70 Baylor 66.561 4-8 71.105 +0, +0.036
71 Duke 66.435 5-7 68.060 +2, +0.058
72 Ohio U. 66.361 9-4 62.409 +2, +0.048
73 Southern Miss 66.296 7-6 62.482 -9, -1.368
74 North Carolina St 66.254 5-7 67.351 +1, +0.146
75 Louisiana Tech 66.093 4-8 65.535 -3, -0.356
76 Bowling Green 65.802 7-5 63.843 +0, -0.002
77 Syracuse 65.082 4-8 68.875 +0, +0.361
78 Northern Illinois 64.580 7-5 58.852 +0, -0.018
79 Maryland 63.958 2-10 70.818 +2, +0.327
80 Marshall 63.827 6-6 65.821 -1, -0.442
80 Wyoming 63.827 7-6 67.754 +12, +1.643
82 Colorado 63.757 3-9 70.420 +1, +0.250
83 SMU 63.530 7-5 63.746 -3, -0.297
84 Illinois 63.399 3-9 68.520 -2, -0.172
85 Michigan 63.348 5-7 64.253 -1, -0.052
86 Vanderbilt 63.282 2-10 71.589 +0, +0.043
87 Alabama-Birmingham 62.843 5-7 65.328 -2, -0.403
88 Louisville 62.751 4-8 68.508 +0, +0.344
89 UNLV 62.612 5-7 66.607 +2, +0.332
90 Buffalo 62.231 5-7 62.351 -1, -0.095
91 Utah St 62.188 4-8 66.225 -4, -0.275
92 Indiana 62.041 4-8 65.855 +2, -0.054
93 Idaho 61.995 7-5 64.191 -3, -0.299
94 Tulsa 61.770 5-7 62.847 -1, -0.399
95 Hawaii 61.301 6-7 62.987 +0, -0.308
96 UTEP 61.026 4-8 62.855 +0, -0.353
97 San Diego St 60.983 4-8 65.381 +0, +0.337
98 Colorado St 59.876 3-9 67.069 +0, +0.376
99 Kent St 58.958 5-7 60.368 +0, +0.009
100 Florida Atlantic 58.623 5-7 61.952 +1, +0.562
101 Western Michigan 58.241 5-7 60.589 -1, -0.001
102 Louisiana-Monroe 58.083 6-6 61.399 +0, +0.548
103 Toledo 57.465 5-7 62.210 +0, +0.083
104 Memphis 56.337 2-10 66.024 +0, -0.393
105 Louisiana-Lafayette 55.572 6-6 60.733 +1, +0.509
106 Arkansas St 55.560 4-8 59.106 +1, +0.583
107 Army 55.375 5-7 60.240 -2, +0.167
108 Washington St 54.794 1-11 73.172 +0, -0.054
109 Ball St 54.651 2-10 62.287 +0, +0.076
110 Akron 53.885 3-9 62.265 +1, +0.027
111 Tulane 53.569 3-9 64.474 -1, -0.433
112 Miami OH 53.556 1-11 67.326 +0, +0.007
113 North Texas 53.101 2-10 60.958 +2, +0.489
114 San Jose St 52.837 2-10 66.974 -1, -0.309
115 New Mexico 52.739 1-11 68.127 +1, +0.300
116 Florida Int'l 52.525 3-9 64.964 +1, +0.544
117 Rice 52.430 2-10 66.626 -3, -0.430
118 New Mexico St 50.820 3-10 63.851 +0, -0.288
119 Western Kentucky 46.022 0-12 61.760 +1, +0.494
120 Eastern Michigan 45.661 0-12 63.380 -1, +0.043