Thursday, December 31, 2009

Midway point bowl game review

With just over half of the bowls now played, I thought it would be interesting to take a look at how the computer has done and how the conferences have done against expectations thus far.  As a reminder, I posted a conference summary preview a few weeks ago and that is what I'll be comparing the records thus far against.

As far as the computer goes, through the Navy/Missouri game, it is 12-6 against the spread and 9-9 picking winners.  That probably sounds backwards, but from what I can tell all the experts are mostly under 0.500 picking winners this season and Vegas is only 7-11 so I consider the 9-9 very good.  Here are the details:
  • Wyoming vs Fresno State - Picked Wyoming plus the points but didn't pick the upset.  1-0 and 0-1
  • Rutgers vs Central Florida - Picked Rutgers minus the points and got it and the win.  2-0 and 1-1
  • Southern Miss vs MTSU - Picked MTSU plus the points but not to win.  3-0 and 1-2
  • BYU vs Oregon State - Picked OSU minus the points and missed on both.  3-1 and 1-3
  • Utah vs California - Picked Utah in the upset and got it.  4-1 and 2-3
  • SMU vs Nevada - Picked SMU plus the points but not the upset.  5-1 and 2-4
  • Marshall vs Ohio U. - Picked Marshall plus the points but not the upset.  6-1 and 2-5
  • UNC vs Pitt - Picked Pitt by 2.2 and they won by 2 nailing it.  7-1 and 3-5
  • BC vs USC - Picked BC plus the points but USC to win.  7-2 and 4-5
  • Clemson vs Kentucky - Picked UK plus the points but not quite enough points.  7-3 and 5-5
  • TAMU vs Georgia - Picked TAMU plus the points and missed.  7-4 and 6-5
  • Temple vs UCLA - Picked UCLA minus the points and got it.  8-4 and 7-5
  • Miami vs Wisconsin - Picked Miami minus the points and missed.  8-5 and 7-6
  • Bowling Green vs Idaho - Picked BG minus the points and missed. 8-6 and 7-7
  • Nebraska vs Arizona - Picked Nebraska minus the points and got it.  9-6 and 8-7
  • Air Force vs Houston - Picked AF plus the points but not the upset.  10-6 and 8-8
  • Stanford vs Oklahoma - Picked Stanford plus the points and got it.  11-6 and 9-8
  • Missouri vs Navy - Picked Navy plus the points but not the upset.  12-6 and 9-9
As far as the conferences go, here is what was predicted and how they've done thus far:
  • SEC - 8-2 predicted and 1-1 thus far
  • Big-12 - 4-4 and 2-2
  • Pac-10 - 4-3 and 2-4
  • Big-Televen - 1-6 and 1-0
  • ACC - 4-3 and 1-3
  • Big-East - 4-3 and 2-0
  • C-USA - 2-4 and 2-3
  • Mountain-West - 2-3 and 4-0
  • MAC - 3-2 and 0-3
  • WAC - 2-2 and 1-2
  • Sun-Belt - 0-2 and 1-0
  • Independent - 0-1 and 1-0
Some conferences still have a bunch of games to go, but the Pac-10 and ACC are a bit behind the predictions, the MAC is well behind and the Mountain West has made a statement thus far and if TCU can win as expected will be 3 games over the prediction.

And based on the strength of the Mountain West thus far, if I were to recalculate the ratings today TCU would actually move to #2 ahead of both Florida and Texas.  Other big movers since the bowls started include Boise State down 3 due to their past opponents doing poorly, Nebraska up 6 after their shutout, Miami down 5 after their loss and the ACC's poor showing thus far, BYU up 16 after their win and the Mountain West doing well, Stanford down 7 after their loss and the Pac-10 doing a little under expectations, and it goes on similar to that for the rest of the teams in the conferences mentioned.

Interesting stuff.