Sunday, December 6, 2009

2009 Week 14 College Football Ratings/Rankings and Summary

Ratings through week 14 (games played thru 5-Dec).  These are also at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-ratings.

What an exciting finish to the pre-bowl season.  The computer had a fantastic week predicting (13-4 against the spread, see more below), several exciting games, and Nebraska nearly upset the BCS apple cart!

The computer predicted Alabama would win and they did and it extended their lead over #2 from less than a point to nearly 5.  They were the computer's #1 every week but one since week 3 and only a let down should result in them not taking the BCS championship.

What is a bit surprising is that at #2 we still find Florida ahead of #3 Texas.  But a deeper look reveals why this is.  First, the computer looks at the entire season and isn't overly swayed but what happened yesterday like the polls and voters are.  Second, Florida entered the week 1.24 ratings points ahead of Texas, was predicted to lose, and lost so they did what was predicted.  Now they did lose by 18 points more than was predicted so they do lose a healthy 1.64 ratings points which would have dropped them to #3 had Texas simply held serve.  But Texas didn't.  They too were favored to win and won so they did what was predicted, but they won by 10 fewer points than predicted so they too lose ratings points, in their case 1.1, and stay behind Florida.

It may not feel "right", but when the computer goes an outstanding 13-4 ATS, 13-4 picking winners, and Vegas goes only 9-8 picking winners, I'm not going to argue with the computer.  Full prediction performance here and if you are interested in a newsletter with additional details on picks against the spread, best picks, and locks, see this.  There will be special bowl game previews so subscribe now to get them!

Behind the top-3, TCU stays #4 but over a point behind Texas so their argument to pass Texas doesn't appear strong, and again somewhat surprisingly Virginia Tech moves up to #5.  They move up because prior opponent Alabama gained 2.6 ratings points and prior opponent Nebraska gained near a full ratings point.  They also have a win over East Carolina which upset Houston.

The bowl games get started in just under 2 weeks but the rankings will be updated after the FCS games next week although I don't expect any major changes.  Stay tuned!

Rank
Team
Rating
Record
Schedule
Change
Rank
Team
Rating
Record
Schedule
Change
1
Alabama
92.097
13-0
72.186
+0, +2.605
2
Florida
87.278
12-1
71.251
+0, -1.638
3
Texas
86.546
13-0
69.481
+0, -1.129
4
TCU
85.388
12-0
64.953
+0, +0.088
5
Virginia Tech
82.632
9-3
72.768
+2, +0.605
6
Oregon
82.448
10-2
72.532
-1, -0.200
7
Boise St
81.842
13-0
62.435
-1, -0.413
8
Arkansas
81.780
7-5
72.907
+0, +0.391
9
Cincinnati
81.404
12-0
66.815
+0, +0.301
10
LSU
81.155
9-3
72.623
+0, +0.487
11
Oklahoma
80.289
7-5
70.471
+0, +0.119
12
Georgia Tech
79.947
11-2
72.553
+0, +0.634
13
Miami FL
79.227
9-3
71.731
+1, +0.343
14
Texas Tech
79.059
8-4
68.024
-1, +0.033
15
Oregon St
78.803
8-4
70.379
+0, +0.416
16
Stanford
78.483
8-4
70.665
+0, +0.115
17
Ohio State
78.419
10-2
66.263
+1, +0.458
18
Clemson
78.116
8-5
70.723
-1, -0.127
19
Nebraska
78.099
9-4
68.984
+4, +0.975
20
Mississippi
77.996
8-4
70.185
+0, +0.526
21
Tennessee
77.757
7-5
70.915
-2, +0.228
22
Pittsburgh
77.475
9-3
68.094
+0, +0.228
23
Auburn
77.454
7-5
73.055
+1, +0.548
24
Arizona
77.371
8-4
71.964
+2, +1.004
25
Penn State
76.995
10-2
64.370
+0, +0.466
26
Southern Cal
76.740
8-4
71.884
-5, -0.621
27
Oklahoma St
75.904
9-3
68.834
+1, -0.042
28
North Carolina
75.565
8-4
69.277
+1, +0.359
29
Iowa
75.558
10-2
67.828
+3, +0.637
30
Georgia
75.374
7-5
73.990
+0, +0.190
31
South Carolina
75.110
7-5
73.671
+2, +0.206
32
West Virginia
74.835
9-3
69.219
+4, +0.700
33
Connecticut
74.628
7-5
68.918
-2, -0.348
34
Kentucky
74.413
7-5
69.525
+3, +0.282
35
Brigham Young
74.315
10-2
66.155
-1, +0.082
36
Mississippi St
74.288
5-7
73.437
+2, +0.333
37
Utah
74.164
9-3
65.681
-2, +0.026
38
California
74.019
8-4
71.148
-11, -2.041
39
Central Michigan
72.599
11-2
60.988
+5, +0.806
40
Florida St
72.552
6-6
73.113
+0, +0.151
41
Missouri
72.466
8-4
68.858
+1, +0.194
42
Boston College
72.458
8-4
68.544
+1, +0.316
43
Houston
72.417
10-3
63.743
-4, -0.538
44
Washington
72.396
5-7
72.738
+10, +2.470
45
Texas A&M
72.327
6-6
69.813
-4, +0.051
46
Wisconsin
72.292
9-3
65.958
+4, +1.441
47
Notre Dame
71.945
6-6
69.915
-1, +0.307
48
Rutgers
71.559
8-4
61.945
-3, -0.156
49
Wake Forest
71.530
5-7
71.067
-2, +0.213
50
UCLA
71.372
6-6
72.525
-2, +0.098
51
Air Force
71.016
7-5
63.947
-2, +0.110
52
Nevada
70.770
8-4
64.494
-1, -0.077
53
South Florida
70.730
7-5
66.931
+0, +0.798
54
East Carolina
70.608
9-4
66.804
+1, +0.906
55
Navy
70.079
8-4
65.724
-3, +0.080
56
Michigan St
69.692
6-6
67.197
+1, +0.581
57
Arizona St
69.356
4-8
69.565
-1, +0.204
58
Fresno St
68.857
8-4
65.573
+0, -0.196
59
Kansas
68.636
5-7
69.637
+0, +0.199
60
Central Florida
68.289
8-4
64.906
+0, +0.110
60
Troy
68.289
9-3
62.206
+1, +0.124
62
Minnesota
67.897
6-6
69.632
+0, +0.295
63
Virginia
67.740
3-9
73.281
+2, +0.460
64
Southern Miss
67.686
7-5
62.417
-1, +0.189
65
Iowa St
67.519
6-6
66.726
-1, +0.234
66
Kansas St
67.434
6-6
67.550
+0, +0.193
67
Purdue
66.969
5-7
67.882
+3, +0.551
68
Temple
66.944
9-3
60.687
-1, +0.246
69
Northwestern
66.746
8-4
63.075
+4, +0.590
70
Baylor
66.549
4-8
71.089
-1, +0.093
71
Middle Tennessee St
66.474
9-3
59.746
+0, +0.135
72
Louisiana Tech
66.462
4-8
65.846
+2, +0.414
73
Duke
66.401
5-7
68.027
-1, +0.196
74
Ohio U.
66.338
9-4
62.348
-6, -0.202
75
North Carolina St
66.137
5-7
67.256
+0, +0.209
76
Bowling Green
65.829
7-5
63.886
+0, +0.176
77
Syracuse
64.751
4-8
68.592
+0, +0.254
78
Northern Illinois
64.619
7-5
58.884
+0, +0.308
79
Marshall
64.286
6-6
66.250
+0, +0.062
80
SMU
63.850
7-5
64.016
+0, +0.072
81
Maryland
63.654
2-10
70.538
+0, +0.054
82
Illinois
63.585
3-9
68.656
+1, +0.557
83
Colorado
63.521
3-9
70.235
-1, +0.238
84
Michigan
63.422
5-7
64.311
+2, +0.568
85
Alabama-Birmingham
63.270
5-7
65.704
-1, +0.251
86
Vanderbilt
63.260
2-10
71.563
-1, +0.285
87
Utah St
62.459
4-8
66.472
+0, -0.164
88
Louisville
62.433
4-8
68.241
+2, +0.190
89
Buffalo
62.359
5-7
62.504
+3, +0.200
90
Idaho
62.296
7-5
64.448
-1, +0.026
91
UNLV
62.265
5-7
66.277
+0, +0.040
92
Tulsa
62.189
5-7
63.220
+1, +0.126
93
Wyoming
62.166
6-6
67.453
+1, +0.181
94
Indiana
62.113
4-8
65.918
+1, +0.557
95
Hawaii
61.620
6-7
63.274
-7, -0.969
96
UTEP
61.399
4-8
63.193
+0, +0.055
97
San Diego St
60.632
4-8
65.064
+0, +0.104
98
Colorado St
59.480
3-9
66.714
+0, +0.136
99
Kent St
58.980
5-7
60.384
+0, +0.183
100
Western Michigan
58.271
5-7
60.618
+0, +0.291
101
Florida Atlantic
58.075
5-7
61.432
+0, +0.649
102
Louisiana-Monroe
57.549
6-6
60.981
+0, +0.160
103
Toledo
57.408
5-7
62.165
+0, +0.233
104
Memphis
56.753
2-10
66.377
+0, +0.158
105
Army
55.161
5-6
59.183
+1, +0.152
106
Louisiana-Lafayette
55.077
6-6
60.310
+1, +0.162
107
Arkansas St
54.992
4-8
58.674
-2, -0.163
108
Washington St
54.866
1-11
73.200
+0, +0.130
109
Ball St
54.600
2-10
62.245
+0, +0.143
110
Tulane
54.018
3-9
64.891
+1, +0.060
111
Akron
53.889
3-9
62.268
+1, +0.264
112
Miami OH
53.577
1-11
67.346
+1, +0.213
113
San Jose St
53.133
2-10
67.243
-3, -0.884
114
Rice
52.888
2-10
67.029
+0, +0.132
115
North Texas
52.621
2-10
60.515
+0, +0.123
116
New Mexico
52.433
1-11
67.842
+1, +0.098
117
Florida Int'l
51.996
3-9
64.413
-1, -0.401
118
New Mexico St
51.100
3-10
64.149
+0, +0.053
119
Eastern Michigan
45.637
0-12
63.368
+0, +0.249
120
Western Kentucky
45.536
0-12
61.315
+0, +0.496