What an exciting finish to the pre-bowl season. The computer had a fantastic week predicting (13-4 against the spread, see more below), several exciting games, and Nebraska nearly upset the BCS apple cart!
The computer predicted Alabama would win and they did and it extended their lead over #2 from less than a point to nearly 5. They were the computer's #1 every week but one since week 3 and only a let down should result in them not taking the BCS championship.
What is a bit surprising is that at #2 we still find Florida ahead of #3 Texas. But a deeper look reveals why this is. First, the computer looks at the entire season and isn't overly swayed but what happened yesterday like the polls and voters are. Second, Florida entered the week 1.24 ratings points ahead of Texas, was predicted to lose, and lost so they did what was predicted. Now they did lose by 18 points more than was predicted so they do lose a healthy 1.64 ratings points which would have dropped them to #3 had Texas simply held serve. But Texas didn't. They too were favored to win and won so they did what was predicted, but they won by 10 fewer points than predicted so they too lose ratings points, in their case 1.1, and stay behind Florida.
It may not feel "right", but when the computer goes an outstanding 13-4 ATS, 13-4 picking winners, and Vegas goes only 9-8 picking winners, I'm not going to argue with the computer. Full prediction performance here and if you are interested in a newsletter with additional details on picks against the spread, best picks, and locks, see this. There will be special bowl game previews so subscribe now to get them!
Behind the top-3, TCU stays #4 but over a point behind Texas so their argument to pass Texas doesn't appear strong, and again somewhat surprisingly Virginia Tech moves up to #5. They move up because prior opponent Alabama gained 2.6 ratings points and prior opponent Nebraska gained near a full ratings point. They also have a win over East Carolina which upset Houston.
The bowl games get started in just under 2 weeks but the rankings will be updated after the FCS games next week although I don't expect any major changes. Stay tuned!
| Rank | Team | Rating | Record | Schedule | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | Rating | Record | Schedule | Change |
| 1 | Alabama | 92.097 | 13-0 | 72.186 | +0, +2.605 |
| 2 | Florida | 87.278 | 12-1 | 71.251 | +0, -1.638 |
| 3 | Texas | 86.546 | 13-0 | 69.481 | +0, -1.129 |
| 4 | TCU | 85.388 | 12-0 | 64.953 | +0, +0.088 |
| 5 | Virginia Tech | 82.632 | 9-3 | 72.768 | +2, +0.605 |
| 6 | Oregon | 82.448 | 10-2 | 72.532 | -1, -0.200 |
| 7 | Boise St | 81.842 | 13-0 | 62.435 | -1, -0.413 |
| 8 | Arkansas | 81.780 | 7-5 | 72.907 | +0, +0.391 |
| 9 | Cincinnati | 81.404 | 12-0 | 66.815 | +0, +0.301 |
| 10 | LSU | 81.155 | 9-3 | 72.623 | +0, +0.487 |
| 11 | Oklahoma | 80.289 | 7-5 | 70.471 | +0, +0.119 |
| 12 | Georgia Tech | 79.947 | 11-2 | 72.553 | +0, +0.634 |
| 13 | Miami FL | 79.227 | 9-3 | 71.731 | +1, +0.343 |
| 14 | Texas Tech | 79.059 | 8-4 | 68.024 | -1, +0.033 |
| 15 | Oregon St | 78.803 | 8-4 | 70.379 | +0, +0.416 |
| 16 | Stanford | 78.483 | 8-4 | 70.665 | +0, +0.115 |
| 17 | Ohio State | 78.419 | 10-2 | 66.263 | +1, +0.458 |
| 18 | Clemson | 78.116 | 8-5 | 70.723 | -1, -0.127 |
| 19 | Nebraska | 78.099 | 9-4 | 68.984 | +4, +0.975 |
| 20 | Mississippi | 77.996 | 8-4 | 70.185 | +0, +0.526 |
| 21 | Tennessee | 77.757 | 7-5 | 70.915 | -2, +0.228 |
| 22 | Pittsburgh | 77.475 | 9-3 | 68.094 | +0, +0.228 |
| 23 | Auburn | 77.454 | 7-5 | 73.055 | +1, +0.548 |
| 24 | Arizona | 77.371 | 8-4 | 71.964 | +2, +1.004 |
| 25 | Penn State | 76.995 | 10-2 | 64.370 | +0, +0.466 |
| 26 | Southern Cal | 76.740 | 8-4 | 71.884 | -5, -0.621 |
| 27 | Oklahoma St | 75.904 | 9-3 | 68.834 | +1, -0.042 |
| 28 | North Carolina | 75.565 | 8-4 | 69.277 | +1, +0.359 |
| 29 | Iowa | 75.558 | 10-2 | 67.828 | +3, +0.637 |
| 30 | Georgia | 75.374 | 7-5 | 73.990 | +0, +0.190 |
| 31 | South Carolina | 75.110 | 7-5 | 73.671 | +2, +0.206 |
| 32 | West Virginia | 74.835 | 9-3 | 69.219 | +4, +0.700 |
| 33 | Connecticut | 74.628 | 7-5 | 68.918 | -2, -0.348 |
| 34 | Kentucky | 74.413 | 7-5 | 69.525 | +3, +0.282 |
| 35 | Brigham Young | 74.315 | 10-2 | 66.155 | -1, +0.082 |
| 36 | Mississippi St | 74.288 | 5-7 | 73.437 | +2, +0.333 |
| 37 | Utah | 74.164 | 9-3 | 65.681 | -2, +0.026 |
| 38 | California | 74.019 | 8-4 | 71.148 | -11, -2.041 |
| 39 | Central Michigan | 72.599 | 11-2 | 60.988 | +5, +0.806 |
| 40 | Florida St | 72.552 | 6-6 | 73.113 | +0, +0.151 |
| 41 | Missouri | 72.466 | 8-4 | 68.858 | +1, +0.194 |
| 42 | Boston College | 72.458 | 8-4 | 68.544 | +1, +0.316 |
| 43 | Houston | 72.417 | 10-3 | 63.743 | -4, -0.538 |
| 44 | Washington | 72.396 | 5-7 | 72.738 | +10, +2.470 |
| 45 | Texas A&M | 72.327 | 6-6 | 69.813 | -4, +0.051 |
| 46 | Wisconsin | 72.292 | 9-3 | 65.958 | +4, +1.441 |
| 47 | Notre Dame | 71.945 | 6-6 | 69.915 | -1, +0.307 |
| 48 | Rutgers | 71.559 | 8-4 | 61.945 | -3, -0.156 |
| 49 | Wake Forest | 71.530 | 5-7 | 71.067 | -2, +0.213 |
| 50 | UCLA | 71.372 | 6-6 | 72.525 | -2, +0.098 |
| 51 | Air Force | 71.016 | 7-5 | 63.947 | -2, +0.110 |
| 52 | Nevada | 70.770 | 8-4 | 64.494 | -1, -0.077 |
| 53 | South Florida | 70.730 | 7-5 | 66.931 | +0, +0.798 |
| 54 | East Carolina | 70.608 | 9-4 | 66.804 | +1, +0.906 |
| 55 | Navy | 70.079 | 8-4 | 65.724 | -3, +0.080 |
| 56 | Michigan St | 69.692 | 6-6 | 67.197 | +1, +0.581 |
| 57 | Arizona St | 69.356 | 4-8 | 69.565 | -1, +0.204 |
| 58 | Fresno St | 68.857 | 8-4 | 65.573 | +0, -0.196 |
| 59 | Kansas | 68.636 | 5-7 | 69.637 | +0, +0.199 |
| 60 | Central Florida | 68.289 | 8-4 | 64.906 | +0, +0.110 |
| 60 | Troy | 68.289 | 9-3 | 62.206 | +1, +0.124 |
| 62 | Minnesota | 67.897 | 6-6 | 69.632 | +0, +0.295 |
| 63 | Virginia | 67.740 | 3-9 | 73.281 | +2, +0.460 |
| 64 | Southern Miss | 67.686 | 7-5 | 62.417 | -1, +0.189 |
| 65 | Iowa St | 67.519 | 6-6 | 66.726 | -1, +0.234 |
| 66 | Kansas St | 67.434 | 6-6 | 67.550 | +0, +0.193 |
| 67 | Purdue | 66.969 | 5-7 | 67.882 | +3, +0.551 |
| 68 | Temple | 66.944 | 9-3 | 60.687 | -1, +0.246 |
| 69 | Northwestern | 66.746 | 8-4 | 63.075 | +4, +0.590 |
| 70 | Baylor | 66.549 | 4-8 | 71.089 | -1, +0.093 |
| 71 | Middle Tennessee St | 66.474 | 9-3 | 59.746 | +0, +0.135 |
| 72 | Louisiana Tech | 66.462 | 4-8 | 65.846 | +2, +0.414 |
| 73 | Duke | 66.401 | 5-7 | 68.027 | -1, +0.196 |
| 74 | Ohio U. | 66.338 | 9-4 | 62.348 | -6, -0.202 |
| 75 | North Carolina St | 66.137 | 5-7 | 67.256 | +0, +0.209 |
| 76 | Bowling Green | 65.829 | 7-5 | 63.886 | +0, +0.176 |
| 77 | Syracuse | 64.751 | 4-8 | 68.592 | +0, +0.254 |
| 78 | Northern Illinois | 64.619 | 7-5 | 58.884 | +0, +0.308 |
| 79 | Marshall | 64.286 | 6-6 | 66.250 | +0, +0.062 |
| 80 | SMU | 63.850 | 7-5 | 64.016 | +0, +0.072 |
| 81 | Maryland | 63.654 | 2-10 | 70.538 | +0, +0.054 |
| 82 | Illinois | 63.585 | 3-9 | 68.656 | +1, +0.557 |
| 83 | Colorado | 63.521 | 3-9 | 70.235 | -1, +0.238 |
| 84 | Michigan | 63.422 | 5-7 | 64.311 | +2, +0.568 |
| 85 | Alabama-Birmingham | 63.270 | 5-7 | 65.704 | -1, +0.251 |
| 86 | Vanderbilt | 63.260 | 2-10 | 71.563 | -1, +0.285 |
| 87 | Utah St | 62.459 | 4-8 | 66.472 | +0, -0.164 |
| 88 | Louisville | 62.433 | 4-8 | 68.241 | +2, +0.190 |
| 89 | Buffalo | 62.359 | 5-7 | 62.504 | +3, +0.200 |
| 90 | Idaho | 62.296 | 7-5 | 64.448 | -1, +0.026 |
| 91 | UNLV | 62.265 | 5-7 | 66.277 | +0, +0.040 |
| 92 | Tulsa | 62.189 | 5-7 | 63.220 | +1, +0.126 |
| 93 | Wyoming | 62.166 | 6-6 | 67.453 | +1, +0.181 |
| 94 | Indiana | 62.113 | 4-8 | 65.918 | +1, +0.557 |
| 95 | Hawaii | 61.620 | 6-7 | 63.274 | -7, -0.969 |
| 96 | UTEP | 61.399 | 4-8 | 63.193 | +0, +0.055 |
| 97 | San Diego St | 60.632 | 4-8 | 65.064 | +0, +0.104 |
| 98 | Colorado St | 59.480 | 3-9 | 66.714 | +0, +0.136 |
| 99 | Kent St | 58.980 | 5-7 | 60.384 | +0, +0.183 |
| 100 | Western Michigan | 58.271 | 5-7 | 60.618 | +0, +0.291 |
| 101 | Florida Atlantic | 58.075 | 5-7 | 61.432 | +0, +0.649 |
| 102 | Louisiana-Monroe | 57.549 | 6-6 | 60.981 | +0, +0.160 |
| 103 | Toledo | 57.408 | 5-7 | 62.165 | +0, +0.233 |
| 104 | Memphis | 56.753 | 2-10 | 66.377 | +0, +0.158 |
| 105 | Army | 55.161 | 5-6 | 59.183 | +1, +0.152 |
| 106 | Louisiana-Lafayette | 55.077 | 6-6 | 60.310 | +1, +0.162 |
| 107 | Arkansas St | 54.992 | 4-8 | 58.674 | -2, -0.163 |
| 108 | Washington St | 54.866 | 1-11 | 73.200 | +0, +0.130 |
| 109 | Ball St | 54.600 | 2-10 | 62.245 | +0, +0.143 |
| 110 | Tulane | 54.018 | 3-9 | 64.891 | +1, +0.060 |
| 111 | Akron | 53.889 | 3-9 | 62.268 | +1, +0.264 |
| 112 | Miami OH | 53.577 | 1-11 | 67.346 | +1, +0.213 |
| 113 | San Jose St | 53.133 | 2-10 | 67.243 | -3, -0.884 |
| 114 | Rice | 52.888 | 2-10 | 67.029 | +0, +0.132 |
| 115 | North Texas | 52.621 | 2-10 | 60.515 | +0, +0.123 |
| 116 | New Mexico | 52.433 | 1-11 | 67.842 | +1, +0.098 |
| 117 | Florida Int'l | 51.996 | 3-9 | 64.413 | -1, -0.401 |
| 118 | New Mexico St | 51.100 | 3-10 | 64.149 | +0, +0.053 |
| 119 | Eastern Michigan | 45.637 | 0-12 | 63.368 | +0, +0.249 |
| 120 | Western Kentucky | 45.536 | 0-12 | 61.315 | +0, +0.496 |
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