Monday, December 28, 2009

2009 Week 17 College Football Ratings/Rankings and Summary

Ratings through week 17 (games played thru 27-Dec).  These are also at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-ratings.

Ten games down, 24 to go!  And with some upsets and surprises in the bowl games, there have been some changes in the ratings and rankings.

There is no change at the very top with Alabama and Florida staying #1 and #2, but behind them there is a swap with TCU moving ahead of Texas due to prior opponents Wyoming, BYU, Utah, SMU, and Clemson doing well in their games.  It really couldn't have gone much better for TCU in this regard.  Texas actually improved their rating a bit too as Wyoming was a prior opponent, but not enough to stay #3.

The computer has continued the outstanding start to the bowl season going 7-3 against the spread.  It did slow down a bit as it was 7-1 but missed the last two games narrowly.  Full prediction performance here and if you are interested in a newsletter with additional details on picks against the spread, best picks, and locks, see this. See the bowl game previews posted thus far and subscribe if you want to get them e-mailed to you well in advance of the games.

Rank Team Rating Record Schedule Change
Rank Team Rating Record Schedule Change
1 Alabama 92.075 13-0 72.228 +0, -0.094
2 Florida 87.273 12-1 71.321 +0, -0.096
3 TCU 87.033 12-0 66.152 +1, +1.255
4 Texas 86.689 13-0 69.736 -1, +0.208
5 Virginia Tech 82.733 9-3 72.894 +0, +0.122
6 Arkansas 81.826 7-5 72.947 +1, -0.048
7 Oregon 81.508 10-2 71.725 -1, -0.944
8 Cincinnati 81.225 12-0 66.615 +0, -0.498
9 LSU 81.030 9-3 72.535 +1, -0.174
10 Boise St 80.733 13-0 61.603 -1, -0.713
11 Oklahoma 80.682 7-5 70.887 +0, +0.418
12 Georgia Tech 80.131 11-2 72.728 +0, +0.125
13 Miami FL 79.356 9-3 71.832 +0, +0.181
14 Texas Tech 79.249 8-4 68.242 +0, +0.274
15 Clemson 78.727 9-5 71.231 +3, +0.430
16 Nebraska 78.256 9-4 69.224 +3, +0.126
17 Ohio State 78.051 10-2 65.902 +0, -0.302
18 Mississippi 78.014 8-4 70.268 +2, -0.016
19 Pittsburgh 77.707 10-3 68.846 +2, -0.118
20 Tennessee 77.578 7-5 70.814 +2, -0.221
21 Stanford 77.436 8-4 69.712 -5, -1.072
22 Brigham Young 77.371 11-2 67.671 +12, +2.704
23 Auburn 77.360 7-5 72.930 +0, -0.150
24 Penn State 76.677 10-2 64.096 +1, -0.286
25 Arizona 76.391 8-4 71.089 -1, -1.005
26 Southern Cal 76.293 9-4 70.925 +0, -0.461
27 Utah 76.057 10-3 66.851 +8, +1.532
28 Oregon St 76.033 8-5 70.345 -13, -2.823
29 Oklahoma St 76.023 9-3 68.970 -2, +0.177
30 North Carolina 75.628 8-5 69.982 -2, +0.045
31 Georgia 75.281 7-5 73.886 -1, -0.147
32 West Virginia 75.231 9-3 69.558 +0, +0.083
33 South Carolina 75.163 7-5 73.735 -2, -0.046
34 Iowa 75.154 10-2 67.568 -5, -0.354
35 Connecticut 74.802 7-5 69.057 -2, -0.171
36 Mississippi St 74.444 5-7 73.566 +1, +0.010
37 Kentucky 74.020 7-6 70.272 -1, -0.494
38 Rutgers 73.048 9-4 62.564 +1, +0.003
39 Florida St 72.947 6-6 73.465 +1, +0.260
40 Houston 72.727 10-3 64.046 +8, +0.824
41 California 72.509 8-5 70.810 -3, -1.563
42 Texas A&M 72.475 6-6 69.962 +3, +0.165
43 Missouri 72.238 8-4 68.628 +0, -0.192
44 Central Michigan 72.166 11-2 60.640 -3, -0.431
45 Air Force 72.100 7-5 64.900 +6, +0.723
46 Boston College 71.837 8-5 69.152 -4, -0.683
47 Wisconsin 71.777 9-3 65.421 -1, -0.346
48 Wake Forest 71.546 5-7 71.072 +1, -0.027
49 Washington 71.330 5-7 71.773 -5, -1.076
50 Notre Dame 71.329 6-6 69.307 -3, -0.627
51 South Florida 71.108 7-5 67.235 +1, -0.020
52 East Carolina 70.953 9-4 67.101 +2, +0.809
53 UCLA 70.572 6-6 71.724 -3, -0.844
54 Navy 70.142 9-4 65.080 +1, +0.192
55 Michigan St 69.329 6-6 66.852 +1, -0.327
56 Troy 68.815 9-3 62.694 +2, +0.106
57 Kansas 68.718 5-7 69.736 +2, +0.203
58 Arizona St 68.405 4-8 68.791 -1, -1.009
59 Middle Tennessee St 68.023 10-3 60.745 +2, +0.174
60 Nevada 67.836 8-5 64.057 -7, -2.631
61 Virginia 67.794 3-9 73.414 +1, +0.073
62 Minnesota 67.585 6-6 69.359 -2, -0.319
63 Iowa St 67.553 6-6 66.766 +0, +0.020
64 Kansas St 67.488 6-6 67.622 +0, +0.013
65 Central Florida 67.240 8-5 65.674 +4, +0.561
66 Southern Miss 66.886 7-6 63.043 +7, +0.590
67 SMU 66.738 8-5 64.703 +16, +3.208
68 Fresno St 66.673 8-5 64.704 -3, -0.617
69 Temple 66.663 9-3 60.449 -2, -0.222
70 Baylor 66.612 4-8 71.176 +0, +0.051
71 Purdue 66.570 5-7 67.446 -5, -0.339
72 Duke 66.498 5-7 68.123 -1, +0.063
73 Northwestern 66.407 8-4 62.780 -5, -0.297
74 North Carolina St 66.232 5-7 67.353 +0, -0.022
75 Bowling Green 65.650 7-5 63.673 +1, -0.152
76 Ohio U. 65.633 9-5 62.404 -4, -0.728
77 Louisiana Tech 65.441 4-8 65.002 -2, -0.652
78 Marshall 65.094 7-6 66.464 +2, +1.267
79 Syracuse 64.956 4-8 68.726 -2, -0.126
80 Wyoming 64.296 7-6 68.311 +0, +0.469
81 Northern Illinois 64.221 7-5 58.537 -3, -0.359
82 Maryland 63.872 2-10 70.720 -3, -0.086
83 Colorado 63.859 3-9 70.523 -1, +0.102
84 Alabama-Birmingham 63.621 5-7 66.088 +3, +0.778
85 Vanderbilt 63.286 2-10 71.575 +1, +0.004
86 Illinois 63.083 3-9 68.209 -2, -0.316
87 Michigan 63.026 5-7 63.951 -2, -0.322
88 Louisville 62.859 4-8 68.585 +0, +0.108
89 UNLV 62.801 5-7 66.745 +0, +0.189
90 Tulsa 62.694 5-7 63.580 +4, +0.924
91 Buffalo 62.084 5-7 62.242 -1, -0.147
92 UTEP 61.859 4-8 63.623 +4, +0.833
93 Utah St 61.817 4-8 66.037 -2, -0.371
94 Indiana 61.778 4-8 65.610 -2, -0.263
95 Idaho 61.393 7-5 63.581 -2, -0.602
96 San Diego St 61.341 4-8 65.851 +1, +0.358
97 Hawaii 60.799 6-7 62.463 -2, -0.502
98 Colorado St 60.052 3-9 67.447 +0, +0.176
99 Florida Atlantic 58.799 5-7 62.110 +1, +0.176
100 Kent St 58.717 5-7 60.127 -1, -0.241
101 Louisiana-Monroe 58.057 6-6 61.356 +1, -0.026
102 Western Michigan 57.999 5-7 60.338 -1, -0.242
103 Toledo 57.262 5-7 61.994 +0, -0.203
104 Memphis 56.996 2-10 66.576 +0, +0.659
105 Arkansas St 55.649 4-8 59.152 +1, +0.089
106 Louisiana-Lafayette 55.643 6-6 60.787 -1, +0.071
107 Army 55.486 5-7 60.346 +0, +0.111
108 Ball St 54.450 2-10 62.075 +1, -0.201
109 Tulane 54.446 3-9 65.458 +2, +0.877
110 Washington St 54.371 1-11 72.445 -2, -0.423
111 Akron 53.617 3-9 61.999 -1, -0.268
112 Miami OH 53.269 1-11 66.968 +0, -0.287
113 Rice 53.188 2-10 67.415 +4, +0.758
114 New Mexico 53.124 1-11 68.829 +1, +0.385
115 North Texas 53.122 2-10 60.942 -2, +0.021
116 Florida Int'l 52.576 3-9 64.988 +0, +0.051
117 San Jose St 52.252 2-10 66.431 -3, -0.585
118 New Mexico St 50.476 3-10 63.434 +0, -0.344
119 Western Kentucky 46.095 0-12 61.818 +0, +0.073
120 Eastern Michigan 45.457 0-12 63.153 +0, -0.204