Predicted bump statistics for USTA League 2016 year-end ratings

Year-end ratings for 2016 are due soon from the USTA, but as a little preview, here are what my estimated ratings predict will happen regarding bumps up and down by level.

At the 2.5 level, I have 32% of players being bumped up and 68% staying 2.5s.

For the 3.0s, just under 5% will be bumped down, 18% should be bumped up, and the remaining 77% stay the same.

The 3.5s are less volatile with 84% staying the same, but still more bumps up than down, 9% to 7%.

The 4.0 level has more bump downs than up, 13% to 4%, with 83% staying the same.

At 4.5, just over 2% should be bumped up and a whopping 21% bumped down, 77% staying the same.  Personally, I doubt the USTA will let this happen and will make adjustments to keep more up as they want to avoid a glut of players at 4.0.

When ratings come out, I'll report back.