Wednesday, October 12, 2016

Checking USTA League self-rated men by section - Who sandbags or overrates?

I wrote a few days ago about trends with self-rated players being bumped up or down at a national level and also took a look at the trends for each section for the women.  Now it is time to look at the men in each section.

As a reminder, these charts are showing the number of players by level that self-rated in 2015 and stayed the same at year-end as well as are bumped up and down.  On each bar the number shows the percentage for each category by level.

As a refresher to start, here is the national chart for the men:

We see the trend of a lot more bumps up than down at the 2.5 thru 3.5 levels, and then it becomes balanced at 4.0 and a slight bias towards bump downs above that.  Based on this, one could observe that perhaps at lower levels, the men tend to underrate or sandbag a bit.

But do these same trends hold true at the section level?  Here are the same stats for each section in reverse alphabetical order.


Texas looks a lot like the National chart, except they have a few more bump ups at 2.5, 3.0, and 3.5.


At the 2.5 and 3.0 levels, Southwest pushing things a bit more with over 90% and 40% respectively being bumped up.


Southern actually has more balance at 3.5 than National averages or the two other sections above.

Southern Cal:

SoCal doesn't have a lot of players self-rate at 2.5 or 3.0, but a huge percentage of them get bumped up.  Do they just improve a lot playing in the California sun or is there some sandbagging going on?

Pacific Northwest:

PNW has looks like others and National at 2.5 and 3.0, but actually has more 3.5s bumped down than up!


This looks similar to National and others, except that there are more self-rated 4.0 men than any other level and more than twice as many were bumped up than down.


This looks a lot like the National chart, nothing really stands out.

New England:

Hardly any 2.5s aren't bumped up, but otherwise quite similar.

Missouri Valley:

Very similar to the National chart.


Again, very similar to the National chart.  Are men this consistent across sections unlike the women?

Middle States:

For the first time, more 2.5s stay 2.5 than are bumped up.  Otherwise, similar to National.


The 3.5 men are more balanced than more others, and a few more 4.0s are bumped down.


Intermountain men are balanced at 3.5 and quite a few more 4.0s are bumped down than up.


We finally have one that is significantly different.  All 2.5s are bumped up and nearly 2/3 of 3.0s and nearly a third of 3.5s and virtual no-one is bumped down!


Sort of back to normal, but there are a lot of 2.5s and 3.0s bumped up.


Eastern is also fairly normal although nearly all 2.5s are bumped up.


Similar to the Caribbean women, a lot of players self-rate at 2.5, and a ton of 2.5 and 3.0 self-rated men do get bumped up.  It is no surprise they do so well at Nationals at these levels.

Remarkably, the men do not show as much variation by section as the women do.  Apart from Hawaii and Caribbean, most look similar to the National averages.

What do you think?