Friday, November 25, 2011

What if Oregon had beat USC?

There are a lot of what ifs we could ask, but in light of ASU folding and UCLA now being the Pac-12 South's representative for the Pac-12 title game, it is interesting to think about what may have happened if Oregon had beat USC resulting to a move to #2 or a very close #3 in the BCS, and then had to play UCLA.  I wrote earlier that Oregon had a very long shot, about the same as Boise State, of getting there, so given all that has happened is that true?

First, what would have happened last week had they won?  They entered the week #4 in the BCS, a little over 0.03 behind Alabama and nearly 0.09 behind Oklahoma State.  This was made up of being #4 in all of the computers and polls.

In the polls, Oklahoma State's loss would have given voters reason to give some #3 and perhaps #2 votes to Oregon.  And Oklahoma's loss would have also helped, turning whatever #5, #6, or #7 votes they may have received into #3, #4, or #5.  In the end, given they were so close to Alabama, they would have gotten closer but it is very unlikely they would have passed them.

In the computers, we already saw that Oklahoma State stayed #2 in most of the computers and only fell to #3 in the others, and Oregon's #4 in the computers coming in to last week had two #5's and a #7 so they would have likely stayed #4 in the computers, although the margin may have been a little closer.

So Oregon would have gotten closer to Alabama for now #2, but would probably still be trailing.  I'd guess the margin may have dropped from the 0.03 to no less than 0.01 and probably closer to 0.02.  So they'd be within striking distance.

Except that they are playing 3-8 and #93 in my BCS algorithm (#73 regular algorithm) this week which would not help them in the computers.  And now, they'd be closing against presently 6-5 and #50/#61 UCLA which also wouldn't really help.  So like I originally wrote, they'd need additional help, i.e. an Alabama loss, to have a chance of getting to the BCS title game.

But, it didn't happen, and LSU won today, so the drama of the past few weeks appears to have subsided, but we still have Alabama/Auburn, Virginia Tech/Virginia, Stanford/Notre Dame, and Houston continues to lurk.