Sunday, November 6, 2011

It is already happening, Boise State won't get to BCS championship game

I posted last week why Boise State wouldn't get to the BCS championship game and what I said would happen already is.

Alabama only fell to #4 in the Coaches poll, ahead of #5 Boise State, and they are 46 points ahead so ahead of Boise on the majority of ballots, and if Alabama wins out against tougher competition than BSU has, that isn't going to change.  And Oklahoma is only 150 points back and with their schedule if they win out including winning at Oklahoma State they'll likely move by Boise.  Even Oregon is only 104 points back and if they win out beating Stanford they could slip by.

In the computers, it isn't any better for Boise.  My BCS algorithm only dropped Alabama to #4 and already had Oklahoma ahead of Boise State's #7 at #3, and while it isn't used by the BCS it behaves similar to some of the BCS computers which tells you it is likely to happen there too.  And Sagarin's rankings are out  and Alabama (#3) and Arkansas (#4) a team I haven't mentioned having a shot, are ahead of BSU's #5.  OU is just behind at #6 so again would likely move past if they win out.

So, in any scenario you can dream up short of there being no 1-loss team out there, Boise State doesn't get to the championship game:

  • LSU wins out, they are in
  • Oklahoma State wins out, they are in
  • If one of the above stumbles
    • Stanford wins out, they are ahead of Boise
    • Based on the above, if Alabama or Oklahoma wins out, they are in, perhaps even Oregon
    • Arkansas could even potentially get in if they beat LSU, although Alabama likely ahead of them
BSU would need losses, perhaps 2 by LSU, by multiple of the above to have a shot of getting there.