Alabama only fell to #4 in the Coaches poll, ahead of #5 Boise State, and they are 46 points ahead so ahead of Boise on the majority of ballots, and if Alabama wins out against tougher competition than BSU has, that isn't going to change. And Oklahoma is only 150 points back and with their schedule if they win out including winning at Oklahoma State they'll likely move by Boise. Even Oregon is only 104 points back and if they win out beating Stanford they could slip by.
In the computers, it isn't any better for Boise. My BCS algorithm only dropped Alabama to #4 and already had Oklahoma ahead of Boise State's #7 at #3, and while it isn't used by the BCS it behaves similar to some of the BCS computers which tells you it is likely to happen there too. And Sagarin's rankings are out and Alabama (#3) and Arkansas (#4) a team I haven't mentioned having a shot, are ahead of BSU's #5. OU is just behind at #6 so again would likely move past if they win out.
So, in any scenario you can dream up short of there being no 1-loss team out there, Boise State doesn't get to the championship game:
- LSU wins out, they are in
- Oklahoma State wins out, they are in
- If one of the above stumbles
- Stanford wins out, they are ahead of Boise
- Based on the above, if Alabama or Oklahoma wins out, they are in, perhaps even Oregon
- Arkansas could even potentially get in if they beat LSU, although Alabama likely ahead of them
BSU would need losses, perhaps 2 by LSU, by multiple of the above to have a shot of getting there.
Sorry Boise, maybe next year.
ReplyDeleteWith the current system, they need lots of help as it is stacked against them. The computers were supposed to keep the voters honest, but the one year they didn't like the computers they handcuffed them so a Boise is harshly penalized due to schedule. Some credit should be given to dominating the schedule you play, not just having a tough schedule.
ReplyDeleteSo, it isn't right that they are left out, but it is what it is.
Accoring to the Sagarin rankings, BSU plays a tougher schedule than Alabama! No Kent States on their schedule.
ReplyDelete@Anonymous, I'm not sure what you are using as a reference from Sagarin. His current summary ratings has Alabama's schedule at #20 (75.01) and BSU's at #49 (69.76), so not even close. And BSU's schedule is front loaded and strength is only going to go down the rest of the year. My computer has Alabama #18 (72.185) and BSU #52 (67.775).
ReplyDeleteBy most any measure, BSU has played a decent but not great schedule. Very good out of conference schedule, but the conference schedule pulls them down.
And Kent State is #107 in my computer, while BSU just played #113 UNLV, played #111 Colorado State, and plays #119 New Mexico to end the season. Nuff said.