Tuesday, November 22, 2011

NFL projected records after week 11

The playoff picture is pretty stable but there are a few changes this week.  See the full list of projections here and see a summary of the projected playoff teams by week.

In the AFC there are 7 teams projected to finish 9-7 or better so one will be left out and that team is presently the New York Jets.  9-7 is their most likely (31% chance) record and with just a 17% chance of 10-6 they'd have to play better than expected or get some help to get in.  The Raiders are projected to win the West at 9-7 and the Tebows, err Broncos, are at 8-8 but improving (projected to be 4-12 4 weeks ago) so that could change if their latest trend continues.

In the NFC there are 7 teams projected to finish 10-6 or better so again, one will be left out.  In this case, Atlanta and Detroit are both projected to finish 10-6 and Atlanta would get the nod based on head to head, but Detroit has a significantly better chance of 11-5 (28% vs 20%) so Detroit could pull ahead.