Monday, September 19, 2011

Preliminary week 2 NFL ratings and rankings

Each NFL week is a bit frustrating from a rankings standpoint as there is a slew of games on Sunday, one Sunday night, and then we have to wait 24 hours for the week to complete and I can product the weekly ratings and rankings from my computer.  So I compute preliminary ratings to see what has changed and thought I'd share those this week.

So with one game yet to play, here are how things look.

The Patriots stay #1 over now #2 Green Bay and #3 Jets.  Baltimore drops a bunch of points but just 2 spots to #4 and Detroit continues to surprise moving to #5 followed by another surprise in Houston.  New Orleans is the big mover of the week righting the ship at the expense of Chicago just behind them.

Seattle brings up the rear nearly 3 points behind disappointing Kansas City.  The Monday night game is not stellar on paper, #27 vs #30, but should hopefully be competitive, but one of the teams will come out 0-2 and also take on the disappointing moniker.

Also, preliminary week 2 season projections appear below.  No real surprise with New England, Baltimore, and Green Bay at 12-4 or better, but see Houston now also projected to finish 12-4.  In the NFC the West winner may not have a losing record this year, and the wildcards could both come from the North.  The AFC West winner could match the NFC at just 8-8 though with the South and East potentially getting the wildcards.

Presently, in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes race, Carolina, Indianapolis, and Seattle are in a dead heat.  Seattle clearly needs him and Carolina already has their QB, but would Indianapolis take him if they had the pick?  If Peyton is nearing the end, could be a fortuitous set of events and QB succession for the Colts.

After the game tonight, the full week 2 ratings and rankings as well as projections will be posted.  And be sure to follow @computerratings on Twitter.


RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
1New England92.0912-080.534+0, +0.637
2Green Bay88.9142-079.815+1, -0.573
3NY Jets87.7312-078.451+2, +1.899
4Baltimore87.2251-182.207-2, -3.769
5Detroit87.1712-076.359+2, +2.605
6Houston86.9012-075.754+2, +2.806
7New Orleans86.7221-187.321+5, +4.079
8Chicago85.7271-183.850-4, -2.310
9Buffalo84.3212-077.052+2, +1.207
10Philadelphia84.1871-179.898-4, -1.302
11Dallas84.0531-186.568+4, +2.386
12Tennessee83.8251-183.038+9, +4.364
13San Diego82.6161-184.712-3, -0.682
14Cincinnati82.2011-179.675+0, +0.097
15Washington81.7852-073.640-2, -0.480
16Oakland81.7521-183.335+2, +1.476
17Atlanta80.9791-184.957-1, -0.669
18Pittsburgh80.5891-178.566-9, -2.791
19Tampa Bay80.3661-182.252+3, +0.934
20San Francisco79.4051-173.980+0, -0.316
21Jacksonville78.8501-185.778+2, -0.131
22Miami78.4530-286.496-5, -1.912
23Minnesota77.3330-281.491-4, -2.456
24Cleveland77.0001-177.628+2, +0.243
25Arizona76.9571-177.346+5, +3.392
26Denver76.3491-178.977+3, +2.399
27NY Giants76.3220-184.785-3, -2.569
28Indianapolis73.0550-281.950-3, -4.947
29Carolina72.9070-282.936+3, +2.242
30St Louis72.8170-181.187-2, -1.907
31Kansas City72.3520-285.746-4, -3.227
32Seattle69.9070-282.997-1, -3.416


Preliminary week 2 season projections:

TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
New England13-324.417.123.2
Baltimore12-426.220.422.0
Green Bay12-424.222.817.9
Houston12-423.817.522.3
New Orleans11-524.221.918.8
Detroit11-523.520.719.1
NY Jets11-523.118.820.4
Chicago10-623.819.420.6
Dallas10-622.416.521.8
Tennessee10-621.715.921.6
Cincinnati9-723.321.318.1
Philadelphia9-721.920.717.2
Washington9-721.721.016.6
Buffalo9-721.621.016.5
Atlanta8-823.021.417.7
San Francisco8-822.818.820.1
Pittsburgh8-822.320.318.0
Oakland8-822.119.118.9
Tampa Bay8-822.016.221.8
San Diego8-821.920.916.9
Jacksonville7-922.119.618.4
Arizona7-921.821.616.0
Cleveland6-1023.022.116.9
Denver6-1022.416.622.0
Minnesota5-1123.318.620.9
Miami5-1122.520.917.6
NY Giants5-1122.321.017.3
Kansas City4-1224.118.522.2
St Louis4-1223.621.518.2
Carolina3-1326.521.121.8
Indianapolis3-1326.324.517.6
Seattle3-1324.223.216.9