Sunday, September 25, 2011

College Football Week 4 Ratings and Rankings

This week's ratings and rankings are now posted.  Things are becoming clearer after most teams have played 4 games and some of the usual suspects are back where we expect them to be.

LSU remains #1 after an impressive win over West Virginia but Alabama makes the big move improving over 5 points and moving to #2 after their thumping of Arkansas, passing idle and now #3 Stanford.  Oregon benefits from LSU appearing to be so good as well as drubbing Arizona and moves up to #4, fractionally ahead of Boise State and also just ahead of Oklahoma State.

Michigan makes the huge move of the week, moving up over 7 points and 19 spots to #9.  Even early in the year this is a big move and is done because:

  • They beat formerly undefeated San Diego State by 21.
  • Earlier opponent Western Michigan (24 point win) lost by only 3 at Illinois.
  • Earlier opponent Notre Dame won on the road.
We'll see if Michigan can make this stick as they have weaker opponents the next few weeks and will need to continue to win comfortably.

The computer went 24-23 against the spread, so not great, but went a sparkling 5-0 in the highlighted games:

  • Picked LSU by 9 giving the points and they won by 26.
  • Picked Alabama by over 14 giving the points and they won by 24.
  • Picked Clemson by 5 giving the points and they won by 5.
  • Picked Arizona State by 3.5 giving the points and they won by 21.
  • Picked Oklahoma State by 2.6 in the upset and they won by 1.

The top-25 is below, the full rankings on the web-site.

1LSU93.1174-072.331+0, +2.875
2Alabama91.7094-063.613+2, +5.107
3Stanford88.0163-065.841-1, +0.557
4Oregon86.8633-171.194+4, +2.747
5Boise St86.8213-070.919-2, +0.050
6Oklahoma St86.7754-072.678+0, +1.077
7Oklahoma84.7993-071.959-2, -1.624
8Wisconsin84.3844-059.147-1, -1.294
9Michigan82.4224-066.486+19, +7.162
10South Florida82.4184-060.233+4, +4.870
11Texas A&M82.1162-167.478-1, +2.005
12Florida80.5054-058.186+6, +3.317
13Nebraska80.0594-063.641+4, +2.770
14Arizona St80.0203-167.359+6, +3.273
15Notre Dame79.5152-276.857+10, +3.769
16TCU78.8603-163.225-7, -2.299
17South Carolina78.8084-068.660-4, +1.058
18Georgia Tech78.3894-060.689-3, +0.903
19Virginia Tech77.8924-061.477-3, +0.551
20Penn State77.6523-168.580+22, +6.215
21Utah76.5902-169.940-2, -0.234
22Illinois76.4974-063.754+2, +0.606
23Tennessee76.3642-167.875+12, +2.845
24Clemson76.0354-064.411-12, -2.229