Sunday, September 18, 2011

College Football Week 3 Season Projections

With three games under most teams belts, the computer can now make more accurate projections for the season and there are some interesting projected records.  See the full list here.

In something of a surprise, Florida International is projected to finish the season undefeated after their win over Central Florida.  LSU and Boise State are also projected to complete perfect regular seasons.  There are 7 teams behind these 3 projected to lose just once, and 5 of those have a better than 27% chance of going undefeated so anything could happen.  Note that #1 in the polls Oklahoma is not one of them with just a 14.9% chance of going undefeated.

Why is Florida International projected to go undefeated when they are ranked only #39?  Simply put, a very weak schedule.  Of their 9 remaining opponents, only one, Louisiana-Lafayette at 2-1, doesn't have a losing record and the highest ranked team on their schedule is 0-2 Troy at #72.  They've already played their 2 toughest opponents in #44 Central Florida and #61 Louisville.  If they pull it off, I don't think anyone will be lobbying to get into the BCS.

The projected undefeated and 1-loss teams below, the full list on the web-site.

Team Record % chance % +1 % -1
Team Record % chance % +1 % -1
Florida Int'l 12-0 70.1 0.0 27.6
Boise St 12-0 65.2 0.0 29.4
LSU 12-0 57.8 0.0 41.1
Wisconsin 11-1 40.9 40.6 15.4
Stanford 11-1 42.6 35.8 18.0
Alabama 11-1 56.8 35.4 7.4
Ohio U. 11-1 42.4 27.5 23.3
South Florida 11-1 41.1 27.1 23.9
Oklahoma St 11-1 36.5 17.0 30.6
Oklahoma 11-1 39.0 14.9 31.5