Wednesday, September 14, 2011

NFL projected records after week 1

With week 1 of the NFL season in the books, the computer can update its projected records for the season. These records are calculated by looking at each game on a teams schedule and the probability of winning it, then looking at all the permutations of how a team could get to each record and identifying the most likely record.  See the full list of projections each week here.

This week Baltimore leads the way with a 14-2 projected record with Green Bay and New England at 12-4.  If New England is #1 this week, why just 12-4 while Baltimore is 2 games better?  It all comes down to schedule.  Baltimore has already won one of their tough games against the Steelers, and has a second place schedule and gets to play the weak NFC West.  New England still has to play the Jets twice, has a first place schedule, and has to play the stronger NFC East.

Presently the playoff teams from the NFC would be Green Bay, Philadelphia, Washington, San Francisco, with Chicago and Detroit the wildcards.  In the AFC it woud be Baltimore, New England, Houston, San Diego, and the Jets and Cincinnati the wildcards, Pittsburgh getting left out.