NFL projected records after week 3

Three games in, the projected playoff picture is becoming a bit clearer.  See the full list of projections here.

In the NFC Green Bay is projected to go 15-1 and lead the entire NFL.  They would be favored in all their games, but with 13 to go the cumulative chance that they lose 1 is still higher than winning them all.  The other NFC playoff teams would be New Orleans, Dallas, and San Francisco, with wildcards Detroit and Washington.  Interestingly the computer is projecting that it will take an 11-5 record to make the playoffs.

In the AFC, New England still leads the way but at just 13-3 now.  The other division winners are projected to be Houston, Oakland, and Baltimore, with wildcards Buffalo and Tennessee.  Again, an 11-5 record is required to make the playoffs.

Week 3 NFL Ratings Posted - Green Bay new #1

The NFL ratings after week 3 are now posted here.

Green Bay is the new #1 but the Patriots are still close behind at #2 and another 1-loss team in New Orleans is #3.  The unbeaten surprises, Detroit and Buffalo are at #4 and #5 with a bunch of 1-loss teams right behind.  Chicago is the best 2-loss team at #12.

At the bottom of the list, Seattle climbs out of the cellar to #30 ahead of the Colts and new cellar dweller St. Louis.

The computer is still adjusting and went 7-9 against the spread, but went a nice 10-6 picking winners compared to Vegas' 9-7.

College Football Performance Charts - Week 4

I've been creating performance charts that show specifics about how each team has performed and give a little insight into how the rating is arrived at.

Below you can see:

• The points each team has received for each game (green and red dots), the size of the dot showing how meaningful the game was.
• The opponents current rating (yellow diamond)
• The rating by week (dark blue line)
• The schedule strength by week (light blue line)

Let me know if you have any questions!

Preliminary Week 3 Season Projections

Last week I posted preliminary ratings and rankings before Monday night's game.  This week I'm posting preliminary projected records for the regular season.

NFC playoff teams are in blue, division winners in bold, AFC playoff teams in red.

As of now, surprises Buffalo and Detroit would be in the playoffs both as wildcards.  The NFC division winners would be no surprise, but the 49ers being 11-5 is likely a surprise.  The AFC division winners are also no real surprise except perhaps Oakland at 11-5.

The full projections will be posted tomorrow night.

Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Green Bay	15-1	38.5	18.7	29.2
New Orleans	14-2	38.0	19.8	28.5
New England	13-3	32.0	24.1	23.1
Houston	12-4	28.1	26.5	18.3
Buffalo	12-4	23.7	16.6	23.0
Oakland	11-5	30.0	26.9	18.9
Dallas	11-5	28.2	24.8	19.9
San Francisco	11-5	27.3	20.6	22.6
Tennessee	11-5	24.8	16.4	24.4
Detroit	11-5	24.4	20.9	19.8
Baltimore	11-5	23.8	18.9	21.1
NY Jets	10-6	24.6	21.1	19.8
Washington	10-6	23.3	20.6	18.8
Chicago	9-7	26.6	20.8	22.0
Cincinnati	9-7	24.4	17.2	23.4
Pittsburgh	8-8	23.4	19.0	20.6
Tampa Bay	7-9	29.3	20.1	25.3
Atlanta	7-9	27.0	18.0	24.9
San Diego	7-9	26.5	18.3	24.8
NY Giants	7-9	26.4	20.7	21.9
Arizona	7-9	25.5	20.5	21.3
Cleveland	6-10	27.7	24.3	19.2
Jacksonville	6-10	24.3	20.7	19.8
Philadelphia	6-10	23.6	17.7	22.2
Denver	5-11	26.6	24.0	18.8
Carolina	4-12	29.3	26.1	18.7
Seattle	4-12	27.7	21.6	22.3
Kansas City	4-12	24.5	20.7	20.1
Minnesota	3-13	29.6	19.0	26.8
Miami	3-13	29.4	20.9	24.5
Indianapolis	2-14	33.2	19.5	29.2
St Louis	2-14	30.1	25.0	20.3

College Football Week 4 Season Projections

And now there are 4 teams projected to finish the season undefeated.

Florida International falls out after their loss, but so does LSU as their future opponents now look stronger, specifically Alabama, which is now projected to finish unblemished.  Boise State now has the best chance, followed by newcomer South Florida.  Oklahoma State also has a good chance now.

There are 7 teams projected with 1-loss now including LSU who has the best chance of the group of being undefeated, but also Stanford, Michigan, and Wisconsin all having a better than 28% chance of being undefeated.

The projected undefeated and 1-loss teams below, the full list on the web-site.

Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Boise St	12-0	92.0	0.0	7.7
South Florida	12-0	75.1	0.0	22.3
Alabama	12-0	60.8	0.0	36.8
Oklahoma St	12-0	45.3	0.0	39.5
LSU	11-1	64.3	33.6	2.1
Stanford	11-1	43.2	38.9	15.3
Michigan	11-1	42.3	41.2	14.3
Wisconsin	11-1	41.0	28.2	23.2
Oklahoma	11-1	39.8	8.7	35.2
Virginia Tech	11-1	36.7	13.3	32.5
Georgia Tech	11-1	33.3	14.6	31.2

College Football Week 4 Schedule Strengths

Four weeks into the college football season, we can begin to see how teams' schedules compare.  At this point, it is heavily influenced by out of conference schedules and teams in tough conferences may not show up with a difficult schedule yet but will in the end.

Here are the full week 4 ratings, but sorted by schedule strength.

As if often the case, teams with losing records show up at the top as they've played tough teams and lost,  but we see Notre Dame as having played the toughest schedule thus far of any non-losing team, but close behind Oklahoma State, LSU, and Oklahoma being undefeated teams that have played tough schedules.  This is why they are ranked #6, #1, and #7 in the rankings.  Boise State has also played the #12 schedule thus far which is needed for them as their conference schedule will drag them down some.

On the other end of the spectrum, there are a bunch of undefeated teams that have played very weak schedules.  This includes top-25 teams Florida (#105), Wisconsin (#100), Baylor (#95), South Florida (#92), Georgia Tech (#88), and Virginia Tech (#81).  This isn't saying these teams aren't good, my computer has them all in the top-27, but they haven't been consistently tested yet.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Tulsa	70.184	1-3	80.156
2	Arizona	70.272	1-3	77.872
3	Florida Atlantic	54.032	0-3	76.954
4	Notre Dame	79.515	2-2	76.857
5	Nevada	71.280	1-2	76.118
6	Oklahoma St	86.775	4-0	72.678
7	LSU	93.117	4-0	72.331
8	Oklahoma	84.799	3-0	71.959
9	Marshall	59.585	1-3	71.635
10	North Texas	53.428	1-3	71.342
11	Oregon	86.863	3-1	71.194
12	Boise St	86.821	3-0	70.919
13	Troy	61.933	1-2	70.874
14	Rice	57.702	1-2	70.796
15	Kent St	55.810	1-3	70.698
16	Maryland	67.267	1-2	70.409
17	San Jose St	61.428	1-3	70.080
18	Utah	76.590	2-1	69.940
19	UNLV	58.709	1-3	69.809
20	Toledo	68.006	1-3	69.788
21	Brigham Young	67.061	2-2	69.713
22	Georgia	74.568	2-2	69.552
23	Mississippi St	70.379	2-2	69.337
24	South Carolina	78.808	4-0	68.660
25	Penn State	77.652	3-1	68.580
26	Iowa St	70.402	3-0	68.191
27	Middle Tennessee St	60.029	0-3	68.176
28	Miami FL	70.100	1-2	67.918
29	Oregon St	59.510	0-3	67.875
30	Tennessee	76.364	2-1	67.875
31	Missouri	74.596	2-2	67.752
32	Texas A&M	82.116	2-1	67.478
33	Southern Cal	72.685	3-1	67.426
34	Arizona St	80.020	3-1	67.359
35	Louisiana-Monroe	56.272	1-3	67.341
36	Army	58.970	1-3	66.931
37	Alabama-Birmingham	49.156	0-3	66.750
38	Miami OH	56.068	0-3	66.633
39	East Carolina	60.514	1-2	66.618
40	Michigan	82.422	4-0	66.486
41	Kansas	64.478	2-1	66.444
42	Pittsburgh	71.197	2-2	66.352
43	West Virginia	74.806	3-1	66.073
44	San Diego St	71.984	3-1	65.914
45	Stanford	88.016	3-0	65.841
46	UTEP	60.716	2-2	65.822
47	UCLA	65.394	2-2	65.625
48	Washington	68.438	3-1	65.392
49	North Carolina	72.062	3-1	65.242
50	Fresno St	64.105	2-2	65.197
51	Northern Illinois	68.039	2-2	65.018
52	Colorado	60.066	1-3	64.943
53	Louisiana-Lafayette	68.138	3-1	64.865
54	Mississippi	61.261	1-3	64.763
55	Arkansas St	66.292	2-2	64.604
56	Auburn	69.966	3-1	64.558
57	Clemson	76.035	4-0	64.411
58	Idaho	55.536	1-3	64.127
59	Louisiana Tech	63.612	1-3	64.087
60	Central Michigan	53.483	1-3	64.039
61	Duke	62.822	2-2	63.941
62	Western Michigan	70.367	2-2	63.785
63	Ball St	65.116	3-1	63.773
64	Illinois	76.497	4-0	63.754
65	Buffalo	59.203	1-3	63.656
66	Nebraska	80.059	4-0	63.641
67	Alabama	91.709	4-0	63.613
68	Arkansas	73.560	3-1	63.576
69	Wyoming	65.504	3-1	63.556
70	TCU	78.860	3-1	63.225
71	New Mexico	50.555	0-4	63.113
72	Vanderbilt	68.681	3-1	62.497
73	Texas	73.541	3-0	62.386
74	SMU	69.124	3-1	61.940
75	Navy	73.876	2-1	61.890
76	New Mexico St	55.631	1-3	61.888
77	Syracuse	62.958	3-1	61.882
78	Florida Int'l	68.139	3-1	61.804
79	Iowa	72.676	3-1	61.701
80	Minnesota	56.136	1-3	61.511
81	Virginia Tech	77.892	4-0	61.477
82	Akron	48.532	1-3	61.438
83	Western Kentucky	46.516	0-3	61.428
84	Utah St	63.786	1-2	61.397
85	Eastern Michigan	56.076	2-2	61.349
86	Florida St	74.098	2-2	61.146
87	Memphis	50.652	1-3	60.986
88	Georgia Tech	78.389	4-0	60.689
89	Virginia	61.920	2-2	60.471
90	Connecticut	68.196	2-2	60.442
91	California	69.071	3-1	60.363
92	South Florida	82.418	4-0	60.233
93	Boston College	59.312	1-3	60.194
94	Ohio State	68.482	3-1	60.176
95	Baylor	74.641	3-0	59.896
96	Hawaii	62.445	2-2	59.718
97	Temple	75.322	3-1	59.677
98	North Carolina St	62.468	2-2	59.214
99	Michigan St	71.392	3-1	59.166
100	Wisconsin	84.384	4-0	59.147
101	Kentucky	59.194	2-2	58.924
102	Louisville	64.191	2-1	58.731
103	Rutgers	71.620	2-1	58.481
104	Washington St	67.027	2-1	58.270
105	Florida	80.505	4-0	58.186
106	Kansas St	71.003	3-0	58.096
107	Southern Miss	64.573	3-1	57.880
108	Ohio U.	69.270	3-1	57.528
109	Texas Tech	71.062	3-0	57.462
110	Air Force	68.523	2-1	57.396
111	Tulane	56.230	2-2	57.141
112	Central Florida	67.459	2-2	56.997
113	Indiana	57.501	1-3	56.666
114	Cincinnati	70.012	3-1	56.379
115	Northwestern	62.584	2-1	56.229
116	Houston	68.022	4-0	55.891
117	Wake Forest	62.789	2-1	55.234
118	Bowling Green	66.165	3-1	53.592
119	Colorado St	56.776	3-1	53.525
120	Purdue	61.205	2-1	53.194

College Football Week 4 Ratings and Rankings

This week's ratings and rankings are now posted.  Things are becoming clearer after most teams have played 4 games and some of the usual suspects are back where we expect them to be.

LSU remains #1 after an impressive win over West Virginia but Alabama makes the big move improving over 5 points and moving to #2 after their thumping of Arkansas, passing idle and now #3 Stanford.  Oregon benefits from LSU appearing to be so good as well as drubbing Arizona and moves up to #4, fractionally ahead of Boise State and also just ahead of Oklahoma State.

Michigan makes the huge move of the week, moving up over 7 points and 19 spots to #9.  Even early in the year this is a big move and is done because:

• They beat formerly undefeated San Diego State by 21.
• Earlier opponent Western Michigan (24 point win) lost by only 3 at Illinois.
• Earlier opponent Notre Dame won on the road.

We'll see if Michigan can make this stick as they have weaker opponents the next few weeks and will need to continue to win comfortably.

The computer went 24-23 against the spread, so not great, but went a sparkling 5-0 in the highlighted games:

• Picked LSU by 9 giving the points and they won by 26.
• Picked Alabama by over 14 giving the points and they won by 24.
• Picked Clemson by 5 giving the points and they won by 5.
• Picked Arizona State by 3.5 giving the points and they won by 21.
• Picked Oklahoma State by 2.6 in the upset and they won by 1.

The top-25 is below, the full rankings on the web-site.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	LSU	93.117	4-0	72.331	+0, +2.875
2	Alabama	91.709	4-0	63.613	+2, +5.107
3	Stanford	88.016	3-0	65.841	-1, +0.557
4	Oregon	86.863	3-1	71.194	+4, +2.747
5	Boise St	86.821	3-0	70.919	-2, +0.050
6	Oklahoma St	86.775	4-0	72.678	+0, +1.077
7	Oklahoma	84.799	3-0	71.959	-2, -1.624
8	Wisconsin	84.384	4-0	59.147	-1, -1.294
9	Michigan	82.422	4-0	66.486	+19, +7.162
10	South Florida	82.418	4-0	60.233	+4, +4.870
11	Texas A&M	82.116	2-1	67.478	-1, +2.005
12	Florida	80.505	4-0	58.186	+6, +3.317
13	Nebraska	80.059	4-0	63.641	+4, +2.770
14	Arizona St	80.020	3-1	67.359	+6, +3.273
15	Notre Dame	79.515	2-2	76.857	+10, +3.769
16	TCU	78.860	3-1	63.225	-7, -2.299
17	South Carolina	78.808	4-0	68.660	-4, +1.058
18	Georgia Tech	78.389	4-0	60.689	-3, +0.903
19	Virginia Tech	77.892	4-0	61.477	-3, +0.551
20	Penn State	77.652	3-1	68.580	+22, +6.215
21	Utah	76.590	2-1	69.940	-2, -0.234
22	Illinois	76.497	4-0	63.754	+2, +0.606
23	Tennessee	76.364	2-1	67.875	+12, +2.845
24	Clemson	76.035	4-0	64.411	-12, -2.229
25	Temple	75.322	3-1	59.677	+48,+11.275

NFL Week 3 Preview

After two weeks, there is some of what was likely expected (Patriots, Packers, Jets 2-0), and some perhaps not (Buffalo, Detroit, Houston all 2-0, Vikings and Colts 0-2), so week 3 will be interesting to see if these trends continue.  Here is a preview of some of the interesting games, see full picks here.

One NFC North matchup has Detroit visiting Minnesota with two of the surprises on opposite ends of the spectrum.  Despite being in Minnesota the computer likes Detroit to win and by more than the 3 point spread.  Detroit has a chance to prove their start isn't a fluke.

The other NFC North matchup is also key as Chicago visits Green Bay trying to avoid getting 2 games back after 3.  While the computer likes Green Bay (#2 overall) and likes them to win even on the road, it expects the game to be very close so take the Bears plus the points.

Buffalo and New England meet to see if Buffalo's start can be maintained.  Buffalo isn't getting any respect being as much as a 9 point dog at home early, and the computer says even at the current 8 points it is too much as it expects the Patriots to win by about 5.  Given how the Patriots are playing that may be a hard pick to make though.

In an interesting inter conference matchup, Houston visits New Orleans.  The computer rates these teams virtually the same so being at home gives New Orleans the edge, and they certainly don't want to fall to 1-2, but the computer says it won't be by the 4.5 or so, so take Houston plus the points.

Last, in a game that had a surprisingly low early line at 3.5, Baltimore visits St. Louis.  The computer likes Baltimore, having them at #4, given their big win over the Steelers even though they lost at Tennessee, and doesn't like St. Louis at all having them #31, so expects Baltimore to win easy.  Take the Ravens and give the points.

Enjoy!

College Football Week 4 Preview

This weeks predictions are up, but here is some commentary on a few of the key games.

In one top-20 showdown, both #1 LSU and #11 West Virginia have shown marked improvement this year but LSU has shown the most and is the pick to win by more than a touchdown even on the road.  With that pick, the computer is taking LSU and giving the points.

In another top-20 (polls) game, #4 Alabama and #29 Arkansas play in Alabama.  Couple Arkansas not looking that great in a only 10 point win over an 0-2 Troy with Alabama being at home and playing well and the computer likes Alabama by more than 2 touchdowns which is more than the 11.5 or so points.  Again, take the favorite and give the points.

Another top-25 (polls) game has #22 Florida State visiting #12 Clemson.  Both teams have improved this year but the computer likes Clemson especially being at home by nearly 5.  Again, take the favorite and give the 2 points.

Being on the west coast I have to include a Pac-12 game and #23 USC visits #20 Arizona State.  Both teams are about where they started the season and again the computer likes the favorite by more than the 2.5 line.

And in the only game between teams in the top-10 of the polls, #6 Oklahoma State visits #10 Texas A&M.  Both teams have shown improvement this year and despite the game being in College Station, the computer likes Oklahoma State to win as an underdog.

Enjoy the games.

Week 2 NFL Ratings Posted - New England Remains #1

The NFL ratings after week 2 are now posted here.

New England stays #1 but with Baltimore's loss, Green Bay moves to #2 with the Jets also passing the Ravens for #3.  Detroit and Houston continue their hot starts at #5 and #6 and New Orleans recovers after week 1 moving to #7.

Continuing last weeks trend, Seattle takes over the bottom spot and by nearly 2 points behind St. Louis.

As usually happens, the computer didn't do as well in week 2 going 6-8-2 against the spread and 9-7 picking winners versus 13-3 for Vegas.

Preliminary week 2 NFL ratings and rankings

Each NFL week is a bit frustrating from a rankings standpoint as there is a slew of games on Sunday, one Sunday night, and then we have to wait 24 hours for the week to complete and I can product the weekly ratings and rankings from my computer.  So I compute preliminary ratings to see what has changed and thought I'd share those this week.

So with one game yet to play, here are how things look.

The Patriots stay #1 over now #2 Green Bay and #3 Jets.  Baltimore drops a bunch of points but just 2 spots to #4 and Detroit continues to surprise moving to #5 followed by another surprise in Houston.  New Orleans is the big mover of the week righting the ship at the expense of Chicago just behind them.

Seattle brings up the rear nearly 3 points behind disappointing Kansas City.  The Monday night game is not stellar on paper, #27 vs #30, but should hopefully be competitive, but one of the teams will come out 0-2 and also take on the disappointing moniker.

Also, preliminary week 2 season projections appear below.  No real surprise with New England, Baltimore, and Green Bay at 12-4 or better, but see Houston now also projected to finish 12-4.  In the NFC the West winner may not have a losing record this year, and the wildcards could both come from the North.  The AFC West winner could match the NFC at just 8-8 though with the South and East potentially getting the wildcards.

Presently, in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes race, Carolina, Indianapolis, and Seattle are in a dead heat.  Seattle clearly needs him and Carolina already has their QB, but would Indianapolis take him if they had the pick?  If Peyton is nearing the end, could be a fortuitous set of events and QB succession for the Colts.

After the game tonight, the full week 2 ratings and rankings as well as projections will be posted.  And be sure to follow @computerratings on Twitter.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	New England	92.091	2-0	80.534	+0, +0.637
2	Green Bay	88.914	2-0	79.815	+1, -0.573
3	NY Jets	87.731	2-0	78.451	+2, +1.899
4	Baltimore	87.225	1-1	82.207	-2, -3.769
5	Detroit	87.171	2-0	76.359	+2, +2.605
6	Houston	86.901	2-0	75.754	+2, +2.806
7	New Orleans	86.722	1-1	87.321	+5, +4.079
8	Chicago	85.727	1-1	83.850	-4, -2.310
9	Buffalo	84.321	2-0	77.052	+2, +1.207
10	Philadelphia	84.187	1-1	79.898	-4, -1.302
11	Dallas	84.053	1-1	86.568	+4, +2.386
12	Tennessee	83.825	1-1	83.038	+9, +4.364
13	San Diego	82.616	1-1	84.712	-3, -0.682
14	Cincinnati	82.201	1-1	79.675	+0, +0.097
15	Washington	81.785	2-0	73.640	-2, -0.480
16	Oakland	81.752	1-1	83.335	+2, +1.476
17	Atlanta	80.979	1-1	84.957	-1, -0.669
18	Pittsburgh	80.589	1-1	78.566	-9, -2.791
19	Tampa Bay	80.366	1-1	82.252	+3, +0.934
20	San Francisco	79.405	1-1	73.980	+0, -0.316
21	Jacksonville	78.850	1-1	85.778	+2, -0.131
22	Miami	78.453	0-2	86.496	-5, -1.912
23	Minnesota	77.333	0-2	81.491	-4, -2.456
24	Cleveland	77.000	1-1	77.628	+2, +0.243
25	Arizona	76.957	1-1	77.346	+5, +3.392
26	Denver	76.349	1-1	78.977	+3, +2.399
27	NY Giants	76.322	0-1	84.785	-3, -2.569
28	Indianapolis	73.055	0-2	81.950	-3, -4.947
29	Carolina	72.907	0-2	82.936	+3, +2.242
30	St Louis	72.817	0-1	81.187	-2, -1.907
31	Kansas City	72.352	0-2	85.746	-4, -3.227
32	Seattle	69.907	0-2	82.997	-1, -3.416

Preliminary week 2 season projections:

Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
New England	13-3	24.4	17.1	23.2
Baltimore	12-4	26.2	20.4	22.0
Green Bay	12-4	24.2	22.8	17.9
Houston	12-4	23.8	17.5	22.3
New Orleans	11-5	24.2	21.9	18.8
Detroit	11-5	23.5	20.7	19.1
NY Jets	11-5	23.1	18.8	20.4
Chicago	10-6	23.8	19.4	20.6
Dallas	10-6	22.4	16.5	21.8
Tennessee	10-6	21.7	15.9	21.6
Cincinnati	9-7	23.3	21.3	18.1
Philadelphia	9-7	21.9	20.7	17.2
Washington	9-7	21.7	21.0	16.6
Buffalo	9-7	21.6	21.0	16.5
Atlanta	8-8	23.0	21.4	17.7
San Francisco	8-8	22.8	18.8	20.1
Pittsburgh	8-8	22.3	20.3	18.0
Oakland	8-8	22.1	19.1	18.9
Tampa Bay	8-8	22.0	16.2	21.8
San Diego	8-8	21.9	20.9	16.9
Jacksonville	7-9	22.1	19.6	18.4
Arizona	7-9	21.8	21.6	16.0
Cleveland	6-10	23.0	22.1	16.9
Denver	6-10	22.4	16.6	22.0
Minnesota	5-11	23.3	18.6	20.9
Miami	5-11	22.5	20.9	17.6
NY Giants	5-11	22.3	21.0	17.3
Kansas City	4-12	24.1	18.5	22.2
St Louis	4-12	23.6	21.5	18.2
Carolina	3-13	26.5	21.1	21.8
Indianapolis	3-13	26.3	24.5	17.6
Seattle	3-13	24.2	23.2	16.9

College Football Week 3 Season Projections

With three games under most teams belts, the computer can now make more accurate projections for the season and there are some interesting projected records.  See the full list here.

In something of a surprise, Florida International is projected to finish the season undefeated after their win over Central Florida.  LSU and Boise State are also projected to complete perfect regular seasons.  There are 7 teams behind these 3 projected to lose just once, and 5 of those have a better than 27% chance of going undefeated so anything could happen.  Note that #1 in the polls Oklahoma is not one of them with just a 14.9% chance of going undefeated.

Why is Florida International projected to go undefeated when they are ranked only #39?  Simply put, a very weak schedule.  Of their 9 remaining opponents, only one, Louisiana-Lafayette at 2-1, doesn't have a losing record and the highest ranked team on their schedule is 0-2 Troy at #72.  They've already played their 2 toughest opponents in #44 Central Florida and #61 Louisville.  If they pull it off, I don't think anyone will be lobbying to get into the BCS.

The projected undefeated and 1-loss teams below, the full list on the web-site.

Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Florida Int'l	12-0	70.1	0.0	27.6
Boise St	12-0	65.2	0.0	29.4
LSU	12-0	57.8	0.0	41.1
Wisconsin	11-1	40.9	40.6	15.4
Stanford	11-1	42.6	35.8	18.0
Alabama	11-1	56.8	35.4	7.4
Ohio U.	11-1	42.4	27.5	23.3
South Florida	11-1	41.1	27.1	23.9
Oklahoma St	11-1	36.5	17.0	30.6
Oklahoma	11-1	39.0	14.9	31.5

College Football Week 3 Ratings and Rankings

This week's ratings and rankings are now posted.  The computer is always handicapped a bit early in the season to try to adapt to how teams have changed from last year, but after 3 games we can begin to get a clearer picture of where the teams really rate.

LSU remains #1, but the gap has shrunk, even though it is still sizable at nearly 3 points over now #2 Stanford.  They along with Boise State and Alabama leap frog Oklahoma even though Oklahoma's rating improved nearly a point.  Oklahoma State's late win jumps them to #6 and Wisconsin is next at #7.

One-loss teams Oregon and TCU are next then a slew of other undefeated teams, the biggest movers in the top-25 being Clemson, Georgia Tech, Utah, and San Diego State.

The top-25 is below, the full rankings on the web-site.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	LSU	90.242	3-0	68.674	+0, -2.074
2	Stanford	87.460	3-0	63.693	+4, +3.526
3	Boise St	86.771	2-0	72.873	+1, +1.158
4	Alabama	86.602	3-0	56.168	+1, +2.399
5	Oklahoma	86.423	2-0	73.460	-2, +0.760
6	Oklahoma St	85.699	3-0	65.824	+1, +2.006
7	Wisconsin	85.677	3-0	63.053	+2, +4.539
8	Oregon	84.116	2-1	69.308	-6, -2.855
9	TCU	81.159	2-1	69.554	-1, -0.853
10	Texas A&M	80.111	2-0	58.601	+1, +0.451
11	West Virginia	78.657	3-0	58.620	+12, +3.794
12	Clemson	78.264	3-0	65.019	+28, +7.138
13	South Carolina	77.750	3-0	70.038	-1, -1.606
14	South Florida	77.548	3-0	57.056	+12, +3.437
15	Georgia Tech	77.486	3-0	56.857	+23, +5.604
16	Virginia Tech	77.341	3-0	59.926	-1, -0.711
17	Nebraska	77.289	3-0	60.670	-1, -0.350
18	Florida	77.188	3-0	53.838	+2, +1.530
19	Utah	76.824	2-1	69.692	+26, +5.998
20	Arizona St	76.748	2-1	66.774	-3, -0.660
21	San Diego St	76.492	3-0	63.119	+29, +6.975
22	Florida St	76.322	2-1	57.797	-9, -2.989
23	Southern Cal	76.227	3-0	63.783	+13, +4.303
24	Illinois	75.891	3-0	60.806	-5, -0.867
25	Notre Dame	75.746	1-2	72.691	+12, +3.824

NFL projected records after week 1

With week 1 of the NFL season in the books, the computer can update its projected records for the season. These records are calculated by looking at each game on a teams schedule and the probability of winning it, then looking at all the permutations of how a team could get to each record and identifying the most likely record.  See the full list of projections each week here.

This week Baltimore leads the way with a 14-2 projected record with Green Bay and New England at 12-4.  If New England is #1 this week, why just 12-4 while Baltimore is 2 games better?  It all comes down to schedule.  Baltimore has already won one of their tough games against the Steelers, and has a second place schedule and gets to play the weak NFC West.  New England still has to play the Jets twice, has a first place schedule, and has to play the stronger NFC East.

Presently the playoff teams from the NFC would be Green Bay, Philadelphia, Washington, San Francisco, with Chicago and Detroit the wildcards.  In the AFC it woud be Baltimore, New England, Houston, San Diego, and the Jets and Cincinnati the wildcards, Pittsburgh getting left out.

Week 1 NFL Ratings Posted - New England #1

The NFL ratings after week 1 are now posted here.

New England stays #1 but Baltimore is the new #2 after their impressive win.  Green Bay slips a spot and Chicago moves up replacing the Jets at #4.

At the bottom, Carolina holds on to the bottom spot but Seattle drops 2 spots getting closer.

It is still very early and 1 game, particularly for a team like the Steelers who will likely play better than they did, doesn't tell the whole story, but the early ratings are still interesting.

And I generally don't recommend using the early season projections for the very reason that things are unstable, but using last years ratings for week 1 the computer went 11-5 against the spread and 11-5 picking winners while Vegas went 8-7 picking winners.  A good start!

The NFL season begins

With a full slate of games, the NFL season has begun today.  First week ratings will be out Monday night, but if you are interested in how your team may finish the season, take a look at the pre-season projected records.

The projected records use the rating for each team from last year, but this seasons schedule.  With the lockout and varied degrees of practice and significant changes to rosters, it is likely this year could be more turbulent than others so these projections are likely off, but it is still interesting to look at.

Enjoy!

2011 college football ratings are up

The early season ratings are usually not very accurate, but are still interesting nonetheless.  Given that, the NCAA college football ratings through week 2 (9/10) are now posted here.

Along with that, the projected records for all FBS teams using the week 2 ratings is here.

With just one or two games played by most teams, there is limited data to base the ratings on, but at this point, LSU's week 1 win over Oregon has them a far and away #1.  The polls have Oklahoma #1 and my computer has them #3.  There will be big changes from week to week early in the season so never fear if your favorite team isn't ranked where you think they should be.

And LSU is one of two teams projected to finish the regular season undefeated, along with Boise State.  Virginia Tech, Central Florida, Stanford, and Oklahoma are projected to have just 1 loss and decent shots of finishing undefeated too, and with the probable big changes in ratings the next few weeks we could see changes in the projections too.

Enjoy!