Sunday, January 9, 2011

NFL Ratings and Rankings after first round of playoffs

The wildcard games are complete and there were a few surprises, certainly one big one, but really no changes to the top-rated teams.  My computer's picks went 3-1 against the spread so a good start to the playoffs.

The rankings are below, but the top-8 teams stay the same with very little movement in the ratings.  Baltimore made the biggest move improving 0.77 points but couldn't catch Pittsburgh at #3.  And the top-7 teams are all still in the playoffs, plus #29 Seattle!

Yes, Seattle pulled the upset, but when you look at their performance chart (below), perhaps it shouldn't have been a complete surprise.  Seattle was either pretty to very good (7, now 8, game ratings at 80 or above, a few in the mid-80s to 90s) or very bad.  Their rating coming in, the average of all this, in fact doesn't overlap any of their individual game ratings.  So if the good Seattle showed up, roughly a 50/50 proposition and better than that at home, they would play to about an 87 rating and New Orleans coming in was at 83, so a good Seattle was in fact the pick to win!

Stay tuned for the picks for the divisional round, and if you are a subscriber you'll get the detailed preview.


1New England90.92814-282.974+0, +0.135
2Green Bay88.16111-682.575+0, +0.311
3Pittsburgh87.52012-482.001+0, +0.113
4Baltimore87.22213-481.723+0, +0.770
5NY Jets86.57212-582.943+0, +0.231
6Atlanta85.84613-380.025+0, +0.028
7Chicago84.76811-581.859+0, +0.104
8Philadelphia82.99210-781.427+0, -0.242
9Indianapolis82.74210-780.505+1, -0.191
10San Diego82.5959-778.826+1, -0.074
11New Orleans82.39411-679.728-2, -0.678
12NY Giants82.24110-680.174+0, +0.002
13Tampa Bay82.03710-679.822+0, +0.026
14Detroit81.8636-1082.911+0, +0.066
15Miami81.5907-983.785+0, +0.135
16Minnesota80.2426-1083.045+1, +0.030
17Cleveland80.0895-1182.868+2, +0.078
18Oakland80.0288-879.098+0, -0.070
19Kansas City80.01010-778.786-3, -0.593
20Dallas79.8606-1081.092+0, -0.085
21Tennessee79.6086-1080.656+0, -0.113
22Houston79.1416-1081.007+0, -0.065
23Cincinnati78.9574-1283.427+0, +0.073
24Jacksonville78.6498-880.122+0, -0.103
25Buffalo78.5534-1284.104+1, +0.093
26Washington78.4256-1081.527-1, -0.038
27St Louis77.0297-978.172+0, -0.003
28San Francisco77.0216-1079.040+0, +0.014
29Seattle76.1328-978.745+0, +0.604
30Denver74.1754-1279.935+0, -0.033
31Arizona72.5795-1178.717+0, +0.013
32Carolina71.9162-1481.507+0, +0.062