Sunday, January 2, 2011

1/2/2011 College Football Ratings and Rankings

Most of the bowl games have been played, a few important ones still to go of course, so I've updated the computer's ratings and rankings.

There is no change in the top-3, each team having not played yet, although each team's rating improved a bit due to prior opponents.  Behind them though, Boise State does move ahead of TCU even though both won.  Why do you ask?

Simply put, the teams were very close previously, TCU ahead by less than 0.4 ratings points, and BSU's win was more impressive than TCU's.  How is that?  My computer wasn't impressed with Wisconsin as much as the pollsters coming in having them #12 leading to a predicted win by TCU by 4.8, so their win by 2 was a little below expectations so they drop a bit.  Couple that with BSU beating TCU prior opponent Utah by more than expected and Boise moved ahead of TCU.

The biggest movers up are Washington and Mississippi State (both up 7), NC State (up 6), and Kentucky, Florida State, and LSU (up 5).  The movers down are Nebraska (down 9) and Baylor (down 8).

Here is the top-30.

1Oregon91.66012-069.974+0, +0.182
2Stanford87.45811-172.868+0, +0.310
3Auburn85.92613-070.428+0, +0.327
4Boise St84.63012-165.333+1, +0.037
5TCU84.30613-064.722-1, -0.670
6Alabama84.26110-369.596+0, +1.715
7Arkansas82.35510-269.205+0, +0.376
8Ohio State81.71411-164.805+0, -0.164
9Virginia Tech81.25611-267.308+2, +0.524
10Oklahoma81.20512-270.862-1, -0.250
11Oklahoma St80.36011-268.435+3, +0.751
12Wisconsin80.19411-265.508+0, -0.011
13LSU78.76010-269.769+5, +0.696
14South Carolina78.7229-572.253+1, -0.711
15Florida St78.69210-470.350+5, +1.491
16Missouri78.60010-369.333-3, -1.472
17Texas A&M78.5829-369.858-1, -0.715
18Nevada78.28212-163.093-1, +0.030
19Nebraska78.26410-468.865-9, -2.534
20Arizona St77.7066-672.963-1, +0.178
21Southern Cal76.4908-573.971+1, +0.246
22North Carolina St76.0039-467.980+6, +1.850
23Iowa75.7428-567.136+1, +0.156
24Notre Dame75.6268-570.062+3, +1.288
25Mississippi St75.5159-468.128+7, +1.898
26Arizona75.3427-672.751-5, -1.110
27Oregon St74.9775-776.880-2, +0.152
28Florida74.9298-570.499+2, +1.114
29Michigan St74.92611-266.633-6, -1.114
30California74.1525-773.509-1, +0.162