Saturday, January 15, 2011

Green Bay at Atlanta Preview

Green Bay plays at Atlanta on 1/15 in a playoff game.

Green Bay is ranked #2 by the computer with a 11-6 record and a rating of 88.161 against a schedule strength of 82.575.  Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were quite up and down in stretches, their worst game being against Miami and best game being against the Giants.  They are 9-7 against the spread this year and the computer is 9-7 picking their games against the spread and 10-6 picking winners in their games.

chart?chs=800x375&cht=lc&chco=000000,0000FF,00FF00,FF0000,00FFFF,FFFF00&chxt=x,y&chls=0|1|0|0|1|0&chdl=Current|Weekly|Win|Loss|Schedule|Opponent&chdlp=t&chds=50,110&chtt=2 Green_Bay 88.161&chd=t:-1,92.993,94.339,83.769,81.856,77.424,74.784,82.229,97.760,96.140,-1,96.400,84.843,90.032,79.856,88.918,98.254,89.769,91.393|84.738,87.105,89.369,89.159,85.632,83.536,81.871,81.974,84.683,84.879,85.778,87.283,87.078,87.336,86.238,86.544,87.642,87.850,88.161|-1|-1|79.316,84.836,78.888,82.383,78.461,79.510,79.460,79.269,81.040,79.603,80.415,81.014,81.762,81.140,81.178,82.211,82.307,82.319,82.575|-1,82.992,78.553,84.768,81.863,78.425,81.590,80.242,86.572,79.860,-1,80.242,85.846,77.021,81.863,90.928,82.241,84.768,82.992&chxl=0:||@PHI|BUF|@CHI|DET|@WAS|MIA|MIN|@NYJ|DAL|bye|@MIN|@ATL|SFO|@DET|@NWE|NYG|CHI|@PHI|1:|50|60|70|80|90|100|110&chm=o,00FF00,0,01,41,1|o,00FF00,0,02,30,1|o,FF0000,0,03,43,1|o,00FF00,0,04,34,1|o,FF0000,0,05,43,1|o,FF0000,0,06,43,1|o,00FF00,0,07,32,1|o,00FF00,0,08,43,1|o,00FF00,0,09,32,1|o,00FF00,0,11,38,1|o,FF0000,0,12,42,1|o,00FF00,0,13,29,1|o,FF0000,0,14,43,1|o,FF0000,0,15,37,1|o,00FF00,0,16,34,1|o,00FF00,0,17,37,1|o,00FF00,0,18,41,1|x,0000FF,1,-1,8,1|x,00FFFF,4,-1,8,1|d,FFFF00,5,-1,20,1|t3,0000FF,1,01,15,1|t1,0000FF,1,02,15,1|t2,0000FF,1,03,15,1|t6,0000FF,1,04,15,1|t9,0000FF,1,05,15,1|t11,0000FF,1,06,15,1|t12,0000FF,1,07,15,1|t7,0000FF,1,08,15,1|t6,0000FF,1,09,15,1|t4,0000FF,1,10,15,1|t1,0000FF,1,11,15,1|t2,0000FF,1,12,15,1|t2,0000FF,1,13,15,1|t4,0000FF,1,14,15,1|t2,0000FF,1,15,15,1|t2,0000FF,1,16,15,1|t2,0000FF,1,17,15,1|t2,0000FF,1,18,15,1|t8,00FFFF,4,01,15,1|t25,00FFFF,4,02,15,1|t11,00FFFF,4,03,15,1|t26,00FFFF,4,04,15,1|t25,00FFFF,4,05,15,1|t27,00FFFF,4,06,15,1|t26,00FFFF,4,07,15,1|t17,00FFFF,4,08,15,1|t25,00FFFF,4,09,15,1|t21,00FFFF,4,10,15,1|t10,00FFFF,4,11,15,1|h,000000,0,0.64,1,1

Atlanta is ranked #6 by the computer with a 13-3 record and a rating of 85.846 against a schedule strength of 80.025.  Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were much more consistent with just 2 poor showings in 2 of their 3 losses, their worst game being @Philadelphia and best game being @St Louis.  They are 11-5 against the spread this year and the computer is 10-6 picking their games against the spread and 13-3 picking winners in their games.

chart?chs=800x375&cht=lc&chco=000000,0000FF,00FF00,FF0000,00FFFF,FFFF00&chxt=x,y&chls=0|1|0|0|1|0&chdl=Current|Weekly|Win|Loss|Schedule|Opponent&chdlp=t&chds=50,110&chtt=6 Atlanta 85.846&chd=t:-1,83.513,88.758,89.199,77.032,91.875,72.393,83.948,-1,86.031,90.206,92.033,89.150,89.631,87.710,90.701,75.599,86.110,-1|83.945,82.481,85.246,88.153,85.133,85.859,83.551,83.065,83.244,84.203,84.568,85.378,85.693,86.046,86.292,86.320,85.849,85.818,85.846|-1|-1|82.522,86.556,82.323,84.778,79.065,79.606,81.289,80.009,80.193,80.539,80.490,80.264,80.707,81.002,80.763,80.281,80.735,79.990,80.025|-1,87.520,72.579,82.394,77.021,80.089,82.992,78.957,-1,82.037,87.222,77.029,88.161,82.037,71.916,76.132,82.394,71.916,-1&chxl=0:||@PIT|ARI|@NWO|SFO|@CLE|@PHI|CIN|bye|TAM|BAL|@STL|GRB|@TAM|@CAR|@SEA|NWO|CAR|bye|1:|50|60|70|80|90|100|110&chm=o,FF0000,0,01,38,1|o,00FF00,0,02,27,1|o,00FF00,0,03,43,1|o,00FF00,0,04,31,1|o,00FF00,0,05,40,1|o,FF0000,0,06,43,1|o,00FF00,0,07,33,1|o,00FF00,0,09,36,1|o,00FF00,0,10,41,1|o,00FF00,0,11,37,1|o,00FF00,0,12,42,1|o,00FF00,0,13,42,1|o,00FF00,0,14,32,1|o,00FF00,0,15,36,1|o,FF0000,0,16,43,1|o,00FF00,0,17,26,1|x,0000FF,1,-1,8,1|x,00FFFF,4,-1,8,1|d,FFFF00,5,-1,20,1|t14,0000FF,1,01,15,1|t8,0000FF,1,02,15,1|t4,0000FF,1,03,15,1|t7,0000FF,1,04,15,1|t6,0000FF,1,05,15,1|t7,0000FF,1,06,15,1|t9,0000FF,1,07,15,1|t10,0000FF,1,08,15,1|t9,0000FF,1,09,15,1|t8,0000FF,1,10,15,1|t6,0000FF,1,11,15,1|t6,0000FF,1,12,15,1|t4,0000FF,1,13,15,1|t3,0000FF,1,14,15,1|t3,0000FF,1,15,15,1|t5,0000FF,1,16,15,1|t6,0000FF,1,17,15,1|t6,0000FF,1,18,15,1|t6,00FFFF,4,01,15,1|t10,00FFFF,4,02,15,1|t3,00FFFF,4,03,15,1|t23,00FFFF,4,04,15,1|t23,00FFFF,4,05,15,1|t14,00FFFF,4,06,15,1|t23,00FFFF,4,07,15,1|t22,00FFFF,4,08,15,1|t21,00FFFF,4,09,15,1|t19,00FFFF,4,10,15,1|t20,00FFFF,4,11,15,1|h,000000,0,0.60,1,1

The teams played head to head are separated by 2 degrees through Philly and San Francisco as follows:

1 Green_Bay-->Atlanta
2 Green_Bay-->Philadelphia-->Atlanta
2 Green_Bay-->San_Francisco-->Atlanta

Head to head Atlanta won by 3 at home, Green Bay beat Philly on the road twice while Atlanta lost on the road, and Atlanta best the 49ers by 2 at home while Green Bay beat them by 18.

The spread is Atlanta by 2 and the computer agrees but just by 0.7.  Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

 .Green Bay             +2.0 over *x              Atlanta  0.7  1.3 0.526 0.550

This game is interesting because Green Bay has been so up and down.  Green Bay has 8 single game ratings in the 90s, 4 of those over 96, while Atlanta has only 4 in the 90s and none over 92.033.  So at their best, Green Bay is the better team.  But Green Bay can be bad too with 3 games in the 70s and 5 below 83, while Atlanta also has 3 in the 70s but no other below 83.

Enjoy!